USD/CAD reversed after rising to 1.2891 last week, but downside is contained by 1.2635 minor support so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2635 will target 1.2492 support and possibly below, to extend the pattern from 1.2947. On the upside, above 1.2891 will target a test on 1.2947 high. Overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, rejection by 55 month EMA, follow by firm break of 1.2061 support, will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3208; (R1) 1.3261; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3222 resistance confirms resumption of up trend from 1.2005. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, below 1.3238 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.2952 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2726 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2651; (P) 1.2691; (R1) 1.2717; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2608 turns bias to the downside for 1.2588 low. Firm break there will resume larger down from 1.4667, to 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2385. On the upside, though, break of 1.2745 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2588 with another rise, towards 1.2880 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2784; (P) 1.2833; (R1) 1.2878; More….

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2588 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2957/94 resistance zone next. Decisive break there will argue that it’s correcting whole down trend from 1.4667. Further rise would be seen to 1.3389 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2588 at 1.3382). On the downside, break of 1.2684 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.2588 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2882; (P) 1.2927; (R1) 1.2992; More…

USD/CAD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Firm break of 1.3075 will resume medium term rally and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, below 1.2859 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3110; (P) 1.3141; (R1) 1.3158; More….

Further rise is expected in USD/CAD as long as 1.3104 minor support holds. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, the corrective fall from 1.3664 might be finished as a triangle at 1.2951. Decisive break of 1.3327 will confirm this bullish case However, break of 1.3104 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3036 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.2863.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3376; (R1) 1.3399; More….

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3418 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3171 support holds. Break of 1.3418 will resume the rise from 1.2994 short term bottom, and target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633, to correct the whole fall from 1.4667. However, on the downside, break of 1.3171 will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2994.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2618; (P) 1.2650; (R1) 1.2714; More….

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.2777 extends today after brief recovery was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA. As noted before, corrective rise from 2.2412 should have completed at 1.2777 already. Intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.2412 low. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2777 will extend the recovery. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3396; (R1) 1.3441; More…

While USD/CAD continues to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4H MACD, further rally is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.3897 to 1.3176 at 1.3451. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3622. On the downside, however, break of 1.3339 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3176 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. While fall from 1.3897 could still extend through 1.3091, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2964; (P) 1.3038; (R1) 1.3094; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3222 will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2971 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3222 with another falling leg, back towards 1.2726 support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2381; (P) 1.2415; (R1) 1.2453; More….

With 1.2480 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside. Current momentum argues that larger down trend from 1.4689 might be resuming. Deeper fall should be seen back to retest 1.2061 low first. On the upside, above 1.2480 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.2919, rejected by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2850) and kept below 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. The development also suggests that long term fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 1.2061 low will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2929 resistance holds.

USDCAD declined to as low as 1.3312 last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.3299 support. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3460 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3653 resistance, to extend the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. However, sustained break of 1.3299 will indicate that larger corrective fall is underway, and target 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds. However, sustained break of 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758, and raise the chance of bearish reversal.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3046) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3556; (P) 1.3587; (R1) 1.3603; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen but further rally is still expected as long as 1.3477 support holds. Break of 1.3646 will resume the rise from 1.3716. Sustained break of channel resistance would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3559; (P) 1.3585; (R1) 1.3634; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. As long as 1.3490 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.3715 will resume the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, however, break of 1.3490 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2496; (P) 1.2528; (R1) 1.2561; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the downside at this point, at fall from 1.2947 is in progress for 1.2421 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2005 has completed at 1.2947 already. Near term outlook will be turned back for 1.2301 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2701 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3617; (P) 1.3696; (R1) 1.3785; More…

USD/CAD is still engaging in the consolidation pattern from 1.3976 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside should be contained by 1.3501 support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3976 will target 200% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.4285. However, firm break of 1.3501 will bring deeper correction to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3426) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Based on current impulsive momentum, it could be resuming long term up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Whether it is or it isn’t, retest of 1.4689 (2016 high) should be seen next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3222 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3567; (P) 1.3626; (R1) 1.3729; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.3704 will resume the rebound from 1.3224 to retest 1.3976 high. On the downside, break of 1.3483 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3224 support zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

USD/CAD continued to lose downside momentum last week. But after all, the down trend still extended. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2460 low. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’ll be cautious on strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2700 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2968 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3003; (P) 1.3050; (R1) 1.3073; More….

USD/CAD rebounds notably today but stays below 1.3143 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3143 intact, further decline is mildly in favor. Sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2791; (P) 1.2825; (R1) 1.2843; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Pull back from 1.3075 could extend lower, but further rise is in favor with 1.2712 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.