Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3044; (P) 1.3062; (R1) 1.3073; More…

Further decline is expected in USD/CAD with focus on 1.3016. Considering loss of downside momentum, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3122 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3205). However, decisive break of 1.3016 will carry larger bearish implications and target 1.2781 support next.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3293; (P) 1.3347; (R1) 1.3417; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.371 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.3467 has completed at 1.3250 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.3467. Break there will revive near term bullishness and further rally should be seen to retest 1.3664 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.3250 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3068/3112 support zone.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3157) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2712; (P) 1.2740; (R1) 1.2787; More…

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2619 extends higher but stays in range below 1.2963. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.2604 support holds, we’d still slightly favor another rally. Break of 1.2963 will target 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.2604 will bring deeper fall back to 1.2286 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2924; (P) 1.2950; (R1) 1.2979; More….

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.2802/3000 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3000 will resume medium term rebound from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, in case of another decline as consolidation from 1.3000 extends, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3000 at 1.2712 to contain downside and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3137; (P) 1.3196; (R1) 1.3237; More…

USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3264 extends lower today. But it’s, after all, staying above 1.3056 support as well as inside near term channel. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise remains in favor. On the upside, above 1.3264 will extend the rally from 1.2781 to retest 1.3385 high. However, break of 1.3056 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2075; (P) 1.2104; (R1) 1.2161; More…

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.2044 but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d continue stay cautious on strong support from 1.2061 long term cluster support to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2265 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2653 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2709; (P) 1.2770; (R1) 1.2890; More…

USD/CAD’s retreat from 1.2947 extends lower today but intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d expect downside to be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2660) to bring rebound. Break of 1.2947 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA will bring deeper fall back to 1.2421 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2863; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2982; More….

USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session. But for the moment, it’s still staying above 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789). Price actions from 1.3124 are viewed as a near term pull back only. And intraday bias stays neutral, and bullish outlook is unchanged. That is, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2741).

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3337; (P) 1.3385; (R1) 1.3410; More…

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3564 resumes and accelerates to as low as 1.3286 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3274 support. Choppy corrective rise from 1.3068 should be completed at 1.3564 already. Break of 1.3274 will target 1.3068 key support level next. On the upside, break of 1.3363 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term channel support now argues that up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.3664, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3564 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3885; (P) 1.4000; (R1) 1.4059; More….

Outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged. Corrective pattern from 1.4667 could still extend with another decline through 1.3850 support. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4140 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re still seeing rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) as resuming up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3098; (P) 1.3172; (R1) 1.3209; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the momentum. Deeper decline could be seen to 1.3068 key support. Decisive break there will firstly resume whole fall from 1.3664. Secondly, it will be a strong sign of medium term bearish reversal. On the upside, above 1.3242 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3340 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3099) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3387; (P) 1.3439; (R1) 1.3473; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3521. For now, further rally remains in favor as long as 1.3274 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. On the downside, below 1.3376 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3274 support. Break will indicate that choppy rebound from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3521. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.3068 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3272). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3041; (P) 1.3061; (R1) 1.3080; More…

USD/CAD’s decline resumed by taking out 1.3023 and reaches as low as 1.2994 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967 and possibly below. For now, we’re still seeing the fall from 1.3385 as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong support from channel line (now at 1.2903) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3092 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.3289 resistance. However, sustained break of the channel support will carry larger bearish implication and bring deeper fall to 1.2526.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2903) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2740; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2806; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2732 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish for deeper decline. A short term top is ate least formed at 1.3124 with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Below 1.2732 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. However, break of 1.2942 will invalidate this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3214 high.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2387; (P) 1.2416; (R1) 1.2468; More…

Intraday bias is USD/CAD stays on the upside for 1.2485 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.2005 for 1.2653 key structural resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.2251 support will argue that rebound from 1.2005 has completed after failing medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.2005.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2937; (P) 1.2999; (R1) 1.3069; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 1.2928. Further fall will remain in favor as long as 1.3097 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.2928 will extend larger decline to 61.8% projection of 1.4667 to 1.2994 from 1.3389 at 1.2355. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.3097 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3107; (P) 1.3137; (R1) 1.3153; More…

With 1.3203 minor resistance intact, further fall is expected in USD/CAD. Decline from 1.3664 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.3076 next. Break will target 100% projection at 1.2891. On the upside, break of 1.3203 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But further decline is expected as long as 1.3375 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3036) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3829; (P) 1.3916; (R1) 1.3975; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3920 suggests that correction from 1.4667 has resumed. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4081 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4349 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3202/3329 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.2913 last week but retreated sharply since then. Nevertheless, further rally is still in favor and break of 1.2913 will target 1.3022 fibonacci level next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.2712 will argue that rebound from 1.2401 has completed at 1.2913, ahead of 1.2963 resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.2401, to extend recent sideway trading.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2649; (P) 1.2733; (R1) 1.2781; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3124 continues. Such decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Firm break there will pave the way back to 1.2061/2246 support zone. On the upside, above 1.2818 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2942 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.