USD/CAD stayed in established range of 1.3850/4173 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective pattern from 1.4667 could still extend with another decline. But downside should be contained 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4173 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re still seeing rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) as resuming up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2951 at 1.6216. That is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2746; (P) 1.2788; (R1) 1.2862; More…

Further rise is expected in USD/CAD with 1.2639 support intact. Rally from 1.2286 would target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.2639 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2572).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3145; (P) 1.3163; (R1) 1.3186; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.3139 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first but further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 minor resistance holds. Below 1.3139 will target a test on 1.3016 low again. On the upside, however, above 1.3247 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.3382 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3030; (P) 1.3061; (R1) 1.3087; More….

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.3018/3143 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.3143 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2922; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2766) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2378; (P) 1.2430; (R1) 1.2520; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.2005 support would target 1.2653 resistance first. Firm break there should confirm near term bullish reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 next. On the downside, below 1.2337 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3138; (P) 1.3187; (R1) 1.3216; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Choppy rise fro 1.3016 should have completed at 1.3382. Further fall should be seen for retesting 1.3016 low. On the upside, above 1.3247 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.3382 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2902; (P) 1.2925; (R1) 1.2937; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat, but further rise is expected as long as 1.2762 support holds. ON the upside, break of 1.2963 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2286 at 1.3228.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3286; (P) 1.3302; (R1) 1.3323; More…

USD/CAD is still staying in consolidation from 1.3345 and intraday bias remains neutral first. More sideway trading could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 1.3177 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will resume the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.3177 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral first. Decisive break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD formed a short term top at 1.3664 last week, just ahead of 1.3685 long term fibonacci level, and dropped sharply from there. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3324). As such decline is viewed as a corrective move for now, we’d expect strong support from 1.3327 to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3495 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3664 high. However, sustained break of 1.3327 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.3118 instead.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.3351 but recovered ahead of 1.3315 low. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3315 will resume the whole decline from 1.4667 for 1.3056 long term retracement level. However, firm break of 1.3490 will suggest completion of the fall from 1.3715. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3497; (P) 1.3524; (R1) 1.3553; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. Further rally is still expected as long as 1.3488 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3693 will resume the rise from 1.3091 and target 1.3860 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.3488 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3693 at 1.3321.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3465) will solidify the case that it has completed with three waves down to 1.3091 already. Break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that the pattern is extending with another falling leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3304; (P) 1.3332; (R1) 1.3354; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.3016 is resuming and should target 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.3247 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat. Through, firm break of 1.3247 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3124; (P) 1.3155; (R1) 1.3196; More….

A temporary low is formed at 1.3115 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3204 holds. Below 1.3115 will resume the decline from 1.3327 and target 1.3042 key support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3204 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2451; (P) 1.2488; (R1) 1.2550; More…

USD/CAD recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 1.2589 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.2301 support holds, another rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2589 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.2653 structural resistance to confirm larger bullish reversal. However, on the downside, break of 1.2301 support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2005 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3331; (P) 1.3415; (R1) 1.3458; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as the pull back from 1.3664 short term top is in progress. As such decline we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3324), to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3469 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3664 high. However, sustained break of 1.3327 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.3118 instead.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3385; (P) 1.3426; (R1) 1.3460; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3468 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3301 support to bring another rally. Corrective fall from 1.3664 has completed at 1.3068 already. Break of 1.3467 will target 1.3664 resistance then 1.3685 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3139) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3146; (P) 1.3193; (R1) 1.3218; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3133 is extending. As long as 1.3271 resistance holds, further decline remains in favor. On the downside, break of 1.3133 will resume larger fall from 1.4667 to long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. On the upside, considering bullish convergence condition, firm break of 1.3271 should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3422).

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3330; (P) 1.3380; (R1) 1.3407; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3315 will resume the whole decline from 1.4667 for 1.3056 long term retracement level. However, firm break of 1.3490 will suggest completion of the fall from 1.3715. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3417; (P) 1.3444; (R1) 1.3489; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook as it’s still bounded in consolidation from 1.3521. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3278). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.