USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3091 continued last week despite some interim retreat. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.3653 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, a target a test on this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3509 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for some correction first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3387) holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3044) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3820; (P) 1.3919; (R1) 1.4105; More….

USD/CAD surges to as high as 1.4164 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 261.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.4192. Sustained break there will pave the way to medium term projection at 1.4554. On the downside, below 1.3960 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2016 low) is still in progress. Next upside target is 100% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.4554, which is close to 1.4689 (2016 high). Initial resistance could be seen between 1.4554/4689 to bring pull back. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3459; (P) 1.3480; (R1) 1.3521; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the upside with break of 1.3501 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.3976 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.3653 resistance next. Break there will further confirm this case and target 1.3976 high. For now, further rally is expected as long as 1.3371 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976 towards 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3187; (P) 1.3231; (R1) 1.3265; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook despite loss of upside momentum. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected with 1.3177 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3177 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Decisive break there will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3329; (P) 1.3353; (R1) 1.3378; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Also, as long as 1.3386 resistance holds, further decline is mildly in favor. Below 1.3260 minor support should resume larger decline through 1.3091 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.3653 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4055; (P) 1.4119; (R1) 1.4238; More….

USD/CAD recovers after hitting 1.3920, but stays below 1.4275 minor resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective fall from 1.4667 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4275 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4667 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2690; (P) 1.2759; (R1) 1.2812; More….

USD/CAD falls to as low as 1.2706 so far and matched target of 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2711 already. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection at 1.2426. next. On the upside, break of 1.2833 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3396; (P) 1.3448; (R1) 1.3545; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3451 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 1.3704 has completed at 1.3320. Intraday bias is back on the upside for resting 1.3704 first. Firm break there will resume the whole rebound from 1.3224. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3320 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3058; (P) 1.3109; (R1) 1.3140; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first, and further rally is in favor with 1.2971 minor support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3222 will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2971 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3222 with another falling leg, back towards 1.2726 support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

USD/CAD dropped sharply last week but stayed in range of 1.2586/2899. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week with focus on 1.2586 support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.2448 has completed at 1.2899. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2448 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2697 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3820; (P) 1.3850; (R1) 1.3905; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.3976. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 1.4064 projection level. On the downside, below 1.3794 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Decisive break of 1.3976 high will confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3568 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3061; (P) 1.3082; (R1) 1.3119; More…

USD/CAD surges to as high as 1.3193 today. The break of 1.3173 resistance confirm that corrective pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2886, just ahead of 1.2879 key fibonacci level . Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3385 first. Break will resume the whole up trend form 1.2061 and target next key resistance level at 1.3685. On the downside, below 1.3092 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

USD/CAD dropped further to 1.2466 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Further rise could be seen this week. But overall outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2880 resistance holds. Below 1.2586 will turn bias to the downside and bring retest of 1.2466 low first. However, sustained break of 1.2880 will argue that fall from 1.3389 has completed and bring stronger rise to 1.2994 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3012; (P) 1.3031; (R1) 1.3061; More…

USD/CAD is staying in tight range above 1.2975 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2886 already. On the upside, above 1.3077 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3225 resistance first. Break will reaffirm our bullish view and target 1.3385 high. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.2886 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2497; (P) 1.2561; (R1) 1.2602; More….

Outlook in unchanged in USD/CAD as rebound from 1.2466 should be completed at 1.2742. Intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.2466. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. For now, another rebound cannot be ruled out as corrective pattern from 1.2466 could still extend. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2880 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3236; (P) 1.3277; (R1) 1.3351; More…

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3068 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.3375 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.3664. In that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.3664. On the downside, below 1.3229 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the upside as long as 1.3068 support holds.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3070) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2765; (P) 1.2813; (R1) 1.2907; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral, with focus on 1.2879 resistance. Break there will resume the rally from 1.2401 towards 1.3022 fibonacci level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. In any case, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.2675 support intact, in case of another retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2527; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2586; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.2891 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947, and should target 1.2492 support and possibly below. But overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage. Break of 1.2773 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2584; (P) 1.2711; (R1) 1.2779; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is now mildly on the downside as fall from 1.2947 extends. Break of 1.2421 support will suggest rejection by 1.3022 fibonacci level. Rise from 1.2005 could have completed in this case and deeper fall would be seen to retest this low. On the other hand, break of 1.2777 minor resistance will revive near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3123; (P) 1.3149; (R1) 1.3185; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral with focus on 1.3049 minor support. Firm break there will indicate completion of rebound from 1.2961. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support. Sustained break there will carry lower bearish implication and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.3173 will revive the bullish case of near term reversal and target 1.3289 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2965) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.