Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3538; (P) 1.3593; (R1) 1.3645; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for channel resistance at 1.3670 first. Sustained break there would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3477 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2709; (P) 1.2768; (R1) 1.2838; More…

USD/CAD staying in consolidation from 1.2891 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.2891 will target a test on 1.2947 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.2635 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2492 support. Overall, rise from 1.2005 is still in progress with 1.2421 support intact. Firm break of 1.2947 will target 1.3022 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2266; (P) 1.2294; (R1) 1.2323; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2265 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.2653 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.2265 will target 100% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.2136 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2653 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2977; (P) 1.3013; (R1) 1.3056; More…..

USD/CAD’s sharp fall from 1.3046 and strong break of 1.2967 minor support dampened our bullish view. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2728 support. Break there will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2526 at 1.3046. And in that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2526 and below. Nonetheless, strong rebound 1.2728 will put focus back to 1.3046 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2882; (P) 1.2908; (R1) 1.2931; More…

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.2883 so far and breached 1.2886 key support. The decline is deeper than we expected. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 will target 50% retracement at 1.2723 next. On the upside, however, break of 1.3063 minor resistance will indicate complete of the fall from 1.3225. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for this resistance again.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

USD/CAD rose further to 1.3075 last week but retreated notably since then. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.2712 support. Firm break there will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline. On the other hand, break of 1.3075, and sustained trading above 1.3022, will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2570; (P) 1.2642; (R1) 1.2689; More….

USD/CAD’s breach of 1.2588 support argues that down trend from 1.4667 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2385. On the upside, though, break of 1.2745 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2588 with another rise, towards 1.2880 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2812; (P) 1.2857; (R1) 1.2941; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook stays bullish with 1.2604 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2935 will resume the rise from 1.2286 to 1.2947 and then 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2634; (P) 1.2655; (R1) 1.2670; More…

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.2286 resumed by breaking through 1.2743 temporary top today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.2639 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3022; (P) 1.3058; (R1) 1.3076; More…

At this point, with 1.3091 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is in favor in USD/CAD for 1.2961 support. Break there will resume whole decline from 1.3385. More importantly, that will also break medium term channel support firmly and carries larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 1.3091 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3173 resistance. Break there will indicate completion of fall from 1.3385 and turn outlook bullish again.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2965) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 first. Sustained break will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below.

After brief pull back to 1.2969, USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2781 resumed and reached as high as 1.3159. The break of near term channel resistance argues that choppy decline from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781. Further rise is now expected in this week as long as 1.2969 support holds. Decisive break of 1.3225 resistance should confirm this bullish case and target 1.3385 next. However, break of 1.2969 will mix up the outlook again and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3451 last week but failed to break through 1.3467 resistance and reversed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 1.3250 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone. On the upside, break of 1.3467 will resume the rebound from 1.3068 and target a test on 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2893; (P) 1.2982; (R1) 1.3055; More…..

Despite edging higher to 1.3066, USD/CAD failed to sustain gain and retreated back into established range. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.2817 support holds. Above 1.3066 will extend the rise from 1.2526 to 1.3124 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. However, break of 1.2817 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.2728 support and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3116; (P) 1.3163; (R1) 1.3235; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Corrective pull back from 1.3385 should have completed at 1.2886 already, just ahead of 1.2879 key fibonacci level. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3385 first. Break will resume the whole up trend form 1.2061 and target next key resistance level at 1.3685. On the downside, below 1.3134 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

USD/CAD’s down declined continued last week but started to lose downside momentum, as seen in 4H MACD. But further fall is in favor as long as 1.3268 resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092. Decisive break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2745. On the upside, however, break of 1.3268 resistance should now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are still viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), but chance of trend reversal is increasing with current decline. In either case, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3299 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3046) holds.

USD/CAD’s steep decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.3666. More importantly, the downside acceleration now argues that fall from 1.3860 is the third leg of the pattern from 1.3976. Initial bias is no won the downside this week first 1.3299 support first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.3976 to 1.3224 from 1.3860 at 1.3395 next. On the upside, though, above 1.3477 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3312) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3025) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3208; (P) 1.3264; (R1) 1.3358; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.2994 short term bottom is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633. At this point, we’re viewing the rebound as a corrective move. Hence, we’d look for topping sign around there. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of 1.3137 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break of 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3519; (P) 1.3567; (R1) 1.3595; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3704 will resume the rebound form 1.3224 to retest 1.3976 high. On the downside, break of 1.3483 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3224 support zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

USD/CAD fell sharply last week but overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 1.3976 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern. Above 1.3666 will target 1.3860 resistance first. Firm break of 1.3860 will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 1.3976 high. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.3229 will dampen this view and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3046) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3162; (P) 1.3194; (R1) 1.3256; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 1.3133. Some consolidations could be seen but further decline is expected as long as 1.3271 resistance holds. Break of 1.3133 will resume the fall from 1.4667 to long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition, firm break of 1.3271 should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3460).

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.