Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3424; (P) 1.3459; (R1) 1.3513; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Overall, the pair is seen as extending the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. Above 1.3566 will resume the rebound towards 1.3666 resistance and then 1.3860. However, firm break of 1.3313 support will invalidate this view and indicate that deeper correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3321) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.

USD/CAD’s retreat from 1.3385 extended to 1.3063 and breached 1.3067 but rebounded quickly. But such rebound lost momentum after hitting 1.3216. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.3216 will target a test on 1.3385 resistance. Break there will resume whole rally from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2845).

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2845) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high). The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406) and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3620; (R1) 1.3643; More….

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.3490/3715 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.3490 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.3715 will resume the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, however, break of 1.3490 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2827; (P) 1.2857; (R1) 1.2912; More….

USD/CAD is still bounded in range below 1.2913 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen. But another rise is expected with 1.2748 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2913 will resume the rise from 1.2526 and target 1.3124 high. However, break of 1.2748 will turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3313; (P) 1.3379; (R1) 1.3417; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside for 1.3250 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone. On the upside, break of 1.3467 will resume the rebound from 1.3068 and target a test on 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2435; (P) 1.2458; (R1) 1.2479; More…

USD/CAD is still extending the consolidation from 1.2286. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Upside should be limited by 1.2497 to complete the consolidation to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to retest 1.2005 low. However, firm break of 1.2497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3641; (P) 1.3667; (R1) 1.3698; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3761 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has already completed. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3630) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and bring deeper fall to 1.3477 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3131; (P) 1.3175; (R1) 1.3200; More…

USD/CAD retreated after hitting 1.3216 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. We’re holding on to the view that corrective pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.3063 already. Above 1.3216 will bring retest of 1.3385 first. Break will resume larger rally to 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2832).

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2838) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3279; (P) 1.3316; (R1) 1.3360; More….

USD/CAD recovered after brief dip to 1.3271, and intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3460 resistance, should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3653 resistance, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.3976. However, decisive break of 1.3224 support will indicate that larger corrective fall is underway, and target 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds. However, sustained break of 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758, and raise the chance of bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3109; (P) 1.3138; (R1) 1.3166; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook. Fall from 1.3385 is seen as a correction and could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 1.3067 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Above 1.3224 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3385 first. However, firm break of 1.3067 will bring deeper decline to channel support (now at 1.2809).

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2825) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above.

USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3467 last week but formed temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidation first. The break of 1.3340 resistance confirmed completion of corrective decline from 1.3664. Retreat from 1.3467 should be contained by 1.3301 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.3467 will target 1.3664 resistance then 1.3685 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3139) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

USD/CAD’s late rebound and break of 1.2569 minor resistance last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.2448, after touching trend line support. Initial bias is back on the upside for 1.2619 support turned resistance first. Firm break there will argue that whole pull back from 1.2963 has completed and bring stronger rally through 1.2812 to retest 1.2964. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.2619, followed by break of 1.2448, will retain near term bearishness for deeper decline to 1.2286 support next.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2773; (P) 1.2826; (R1) 1.2862; More…

A temporary top is formed at 1.2879, ahead of 1.2899 resistance, with current retreat. Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.2675 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2879 should resume rise from 1.2401 towards 1.3022 fibonacci level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 1.2675 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.2401 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3995 last week as up trend extended. A temporary top is likely formed after meeting 200% projection projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3958. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.3329 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 1.3995 will pave the way to 261.8% projection at 1.4192.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2016 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.4554, which is close to 1.4689 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3329 resistance turned support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3131; (P) 1.3156; (R1) 1.3197; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. The corrective fall from 1.3385 is still mildly in favor to continue lower. Below 1.3114 will target 1.3063 support and then 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967. But we’d expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2897) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rally from 1.2061 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2897) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3728; (P) 1.3861; (R1) 1.3940; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3995 temporary top. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside should be contained well above 1.3329 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 1.3995 will pave the way to 261.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.4192.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2016 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.4554, which is close to 1.4689 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3329 resistance turned support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2623; (P) 1.2659; (R1) 1.2680; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Rise from 1.2005 is in progress with 1.2421 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2760 will target a test on 1.2947 high. However, break of 1.2492 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 1.2421 key structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3053; (P) 1.3077; (R1) 1.3111; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3122 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1.3042, ahead of 1.3016 key support. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3202). Sustained break there will bring further rise to 1.3382 resistance. For now, in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.3042 to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD’s rose to 1.3668 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.3521 minor support holds. Corrective pattern from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves to 1.3299. On the upside, above 1.3668 will target 1.3860/3976 resistance zone. However, firm break of 1.3521 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back towards 1.3299 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3302) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3012) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3232; (P) 1.3301; (R1) 1.3341; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, choppy rise from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3564 already. Fall from there should now target 1.3052/68 cluster support. On the upside, break of 1.3363 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term channel support now argues that up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.3664 (2018 high), just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, and 1.3793 resistance. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3564 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.