Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2652; (P) 1.2684; (R1) 1.2702; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first as sideway trading continues. With 1.2648 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rally from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2648 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2834; (P) 1.2860; (R1) 1.2899; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2896 temporary top. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained by 1.2748 minor support to bring another rise. Above 1.2896 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3124 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.2748 will turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3262; (P) 1.3283; (R1) 1.3302; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first, with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Focus stays on 1.3327 resistance. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.3664 should have completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Decisive break of 1.3327 should confirm this bullish case. For now, this will remain the preferred case as long as 1.3104 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2794; (P) 1.2885; (R1) 1.2944; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.2802 minor support holds, further rise is expected. Above 1.2996 will target 1.3124 resistance next. Decisive break there will extend larger rebound from 1.2061. However, break of 1.2802 will at least delay the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2780) and below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3239 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development dampen original view of bearish trend reversal. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for rebound towards 1.3564 resistance first. Break will target 1.3664 high. On the downside, below 1.3239 will target 1.3052/68 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, outlook is turned mixed after USD/CAD drew strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.3232) and rebounded. Nevertheless, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low), towards 1.4689. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral first. Break of 1.3239 will revive the case of medium term topping at 1.3664. And, decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. Rejection by 1.3793 resistance would raise the chance of lengthier extension, with risk of dropping through 1.2061 low before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3139; (P) 1.3201; (R1) 1.3250; More….

USD/CAD is staying in sideway consolidation from 1.3091 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish for further decline with 1.3385 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.3091 will resume larger fall and target 61.8% projection of 1.3653 to 1.3115 from 1.3386 at 1.3054. However, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.

USD/CAD’s strong break of 1.2586 support last week confirmed completion of rebound from 1.2448. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Firm break of 1.2448 will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2005 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, above 1.2585 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3040; (P) 1.3081; (R1) 1.3110; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. With 1.3034 minor support intact, another rise cannot be ruled out. However, near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3389 resistance holds, and down trend resumption is expected. On the downside, break of 1.3057 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.2928 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3540; (P) 1.3615; (R1) 1.3668; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral but further rally is still in favor. Correction from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves down to 1.3224. Further rise should be seen to 1.3807 resistance first, and then 1.3976. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3383 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

USD/CAD stayed in established range last week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 1.4667 might still extend with another decline. But downside should be contained 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4140 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re still seeing rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) as resuming up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2951 at 1.6216. That is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3236; (P) 1.3252; (R1) 1.3269; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective fall from 1.3327 is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3182). But downside should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3327 should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.3664. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high. However, break of 1.3104 resistance turned support will extend the corrective with another fall through 1.2951 before completion.

Some volatility was seen in USD/CAD last week but there was no decisive movement. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as medium term channel support holds (now at 1.2986), we’d expect further rise ahead in the pair. On the upside, above 1.3173 will indicate completion of correction from 1.3385. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back tot he upside for 1.3289 resistance first. However, sustained trading below the channel, and break of 1.2961 support, will carry larger bearish implication and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2982) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 first. Sustained break will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2823; (P) 1.2862; (R1) 1.2928; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2876 resistance suggests that rise from 1.2448 has resumed, and revives near term bullishness. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will target key long term fibonacci level at 1.3022. On the downside, below 1.2794 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and mix up the outlook again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2547; (P) 1.2600; (R1) 1.2643; More…

USD/CAD’s decline form 1.2891, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947, could still continue. Below 1.2556 will target 1.2492 support and possibly below. But overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage. Break of 1.2773 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3141; (P) 1.3183; (R1) 1.3224; More….

Further decline is expected in USD/CAD with 1.3268 resistance intact. Current fall from 1.3653 should target 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092. Decisive break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2745. On the upside, however, break of 1.3268 resistance should now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are still viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), but chance of trend reversal is increasing with current decline. In either case, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3299 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3103; (P) 1.3132; (R1) 1.3153; More….

USD/CAD’s recovery from 1.3081 extends higher today but stays below 1.3259 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3081 will target a test on 1.2994 low. Break will resume the larger fall from 1.4667. However, break of 1.3259 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2994 with another rising leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3418 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3613; (P) 1.3645; (R1) 1.3667; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 1.3653 should confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, and target a test on this high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3488 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3436) holds.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3860 last week suggests that corrective pattern from 1.3976 is extending with another falling leg. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3224/61 support zone. But strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. Still, break of 1.3650 support turned is needed to indicate completion of the decline first. Or further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 month EMA (now at 1.3003) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2857; (P) 1.2896; (R1) 1.2947; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD says mildly on the upside. A short term bottom was formed at 1.2668 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 day EMA and break will target 1.3172 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.2688 low is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will be mildly on the upside for more correction.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3424; (P) 1.3446; (R1) 1.3479; More…

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the upside with 1.3413 minor support intact. Current rise from 1.3068 should extend to retest 1.3664 and then 1.3685 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.3413 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3118) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.