Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2416; (P) 1.2450; (R1) 1.2472; More…

USD/CAD is still extending consolidation from 1.2286 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Upside should be limited by 1.2497 to complete the consolidation to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to retest 1.2005 low. However, firm break of 1.2497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.2899 last week but dropped sharply since then. Near term outlook is mixed and initial bias is neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2899 will target 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will target key long term fibonacci level at 1.3022. However, break of 1.2586 will bring retest of 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3050; (P) 1.3082; (R1) 1.3117; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Above 1.3172 will extend the rebound from 1.2928. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3389 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3034 minor support will bring retest of 1.2928 temporary low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2560; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2676; More….

As noted before, a short term bottom should be in place at 1.2526. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for recovering to 38.2% retracement of 1.2942 to 1.2526 at 1.2685, or even further to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2730). But upside should be limited well below 1.2814 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. We’d expect decline from 1.3124 to extend later to 1.2061/2246 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3238; (P) 1.3265; (R1) 1.3311; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.3115 is extending. Further rally should be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3369). On the downside, break of 1.3202 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3115 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are still viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3299 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. However, sustained trading above 1.3229 will raise the chance that the correction has completed and turn focus back to 1.3653 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3562; (P) 1.3590; (R1) 1.3609; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside and outlook is unchanged. While pull back from 1.3784 could extend lower, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3378 support holds. On the upside, above 1.3675 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3784 next.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Decisive break of 1.3976 high will confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3378 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3123; (P) 1.3149; (R1) 1.3185; More…

UD/CAD was rejected by near term falling channel resistance and drops sharply in early US session. Nonetheless, it’s staying above 1.3049 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. While the view is looking shaky, we’re still favoring that corrective pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2916. Rebound from 1.2961 should extend higher and above 1.3173 will target 1.3289 resistance. However, on the downside, break of 1.3049 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2961 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2958) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2820; (P) 1.2842; (R1) 1.2887; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again as it retreated after hitting 1.2935. Some consolidations could be seen, but near term outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 1.2604 support holds. On the upside, above 1.2935 will target 1.2947 resistance next. Firm break there will target 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3104; (P) 1.3166; (R1) 1.3203; More…

USD/CAD recovers ahead of 4 hour 55 EMA but it’s kept well below 1.3225 temporary top. Intraday bias stays neutral for consolidation. At this point, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2886. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.2886 to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.3225 will target a test on 1.3385 high.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2489; (P) 1.2523; (R1) 1.2543; More…

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation form 1.2603 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, fall from 1.2947 has possibly completed with three waves down to 1.2886. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2386 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2603 will resume the rally to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. However, break of 1.2386 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.2886 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3261; (P) 1.3281; (R1) 1.3299; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for 1.3327 resistance. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.3664 should have completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Decisive break of 1.3327 should confirm this bullish case. On the downside, below 1.3231 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3412; (P) 1.3474; (R1) 1.3524; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 1.3315 should have completed and deeper decline should be seen this retest this support. Break will resume whole fall from 1.4667 to 1.3056 long term retracement level. On the upside, break of 1.3646 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

USD/CAD’s down trend resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 1.2772. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2711 next. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2426. On the upside, above 1.2868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3111; (P) 1.3160; (R1) 1.3202; More…

USD/CAD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3222 resistance first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, below 1.3062 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3273; (P) 1.3302; (R1) 1.3340; More…

USD/CAD’s rally is still in progress even though upside momentum is diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404 next. On the downside, below 1.3268 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, current development solidify the view of bullish trend reversal. That is fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2526 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2831; (P) 1.2867; (R1) 1.2896; More…

Range Trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.2818 minor support will resume the fall from 1.3077 towards 1.2516 support next. On the upside, break of 1.3077 and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications, and bring up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3280; (P) 1.3326; (R1) 1.3353; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.3250 support first. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone. On the upside, break of 1.3467 will resume the rebound from 1.3068 and target a test on 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3287; (P) 1.3354; (R1) 1.3389; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3315 suggests resumption of whole decline from 1.4667. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. On the upside, break of 1.3459 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3115; (P) 1.3131; (R1) 1.3141; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.3382 should target 100% projection of 1.3382 to 1.3133 from 1.3347 at 1.3098 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3016 low next. On the upside, above 1.3171 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2484; (P) 1.2512; (R1) 1.2542; More…

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.2428 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays stays bearish as long as 1.2591 resistance holds. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.2005 could have completed already. Break of 1.2428 will target 1.2886 support and then 1.2005 low. On the upside, nevertheless, break of 1.2591 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2899 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.