Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2271; (P) 1.2300; (R1) 1.2329; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained trading below 4 hour 5 EMA (now at 1.2287) will argue that rebound from 1.2005 has completed after failing medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.2005. On the upside, above 1.2402 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 1.2005 towards 1.2653 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4667 extended further to 1.3191 last week. A temporary low was formed there and initial bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.3398 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.3191 will target long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3398 should indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2699; (P) 1.2749; (R1) 1.2832; More….

USD/CAD recovered quickly after hitting 1.2663 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook remains bearish with 1.2957 resistance intact. Below 1.2663 will resume larger fall from 1.4667 to 100% projection of 1.3172 to 1.2688 from 1.2957 at 1.2473. However, break of 1.2957 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.2880 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 1.2588 short term bottom is in favor to continue as long as 1.2684 minor support holds. Break of 1.2880 will target 1.2994 support turned resistance. However, break of 1.2684 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.2588 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3487; (P) 1.3512; (R1) 1.3529; More…

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations could be seen, but further rally is expected as long as 1.3357 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3585 will resume the rebound from 1.3176 for 1.3897 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3451; (P) 1.3476; (R1) 1.3518; More…

USD/CAD rises notably today but it’s limited below 1.3521 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.3357 support to bring up trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break of the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3348; (R1) 1.3393; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.3259 resistance turned support will argue that rebound from 1.2994 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.2994 low. On the upside, break of 1.3418 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633, to correct the whole fall from 1.4667.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3289 last week but drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3371 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.3467 has completed. That will also revive the bullish case that rise from 1.3068 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to 1.3467 resistance and above. However, break of 1.3289 will extend the decline from 1.3467 to 1.3068/3112 support zone.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3157) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3504; (P) 1.3534; (R1) 1.3589; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Current development argues that rebound from 1.3313 is possibly another leg inside the triangle pattern from 1.3976. Further rise should be seen for 1.3666 resistance. Break there will target 1.3860 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.3478 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3321) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3204; (P) 1.3227; (R1) 1.3273; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 1.3225 will confirm completion of choppy fall from 1.3385. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.3385 high. On the downside, break of 1.3056 support is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4667 continued last week and reached as low as 1.3047. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.4048 to 1.3315 from 1.3715 at 1.2982. On the upside, break of 1.3239 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break out 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3297; (P) 1.3318; (R1) 1.3337; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3206 support holds. Break of 1.3347 will target 1.3382 resistance first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.3016. However, break of 1.3206 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3133 support instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD’s rebound form 1.2951 resumed last week. The development now argues that corrective pattern from 1.3664 has completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3036 support holds. Above 1.3171 will target 1.3327 resistance to confirm this bullish view. Nevertheless, break of 1.3036 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.2951 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.2863.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2691; (P) 1.2714; (R1) 1.2749; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2742 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2852 has completed at 1.2604 already. Rise from 1.2286 might be ready to resume. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.2852 first. Break will confirm this case and target 1.2947 resistance. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2604 will argue that rise from 1.2286 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2286 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3382 extended to as low as 1.3133 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that pull back from 1.3382 has completed. And more importantly, rise from 1.3016 is probably not over yet. Initial bias is now on the upside for 1.3382 resistance first. Break will target 1.3564 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.3133 will bring retest of 1.3016 low.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) in in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3056; (P) 1.3076; (R1) 1.3114; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Above 1.3172 will extend the rebound from 1.2928. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3389 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3034 minor support will bring retest of 1.2928 temporary low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3380; (P) 1.3412; (R1) 1.3448; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.3315 will resume the whole decline from 1.4667 for 1.3056 long term retracement level. However, firm break of 1.3490 will suggest completion of the fall from 1.3715. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation from 1.2286 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 1.2497 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, rejection by 55 month EMA, follow by firm break of 1.2061 support, will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.2951 continued last week and hit as high as 1.3253. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. As noted before, corrective pattern from 1.3664 should have completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Further rally would be seen to 1.3327 resistance first. Decisive break of 1.3327 should confirm this bullish case. On the downside, below 1.3190 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

USD/CAD’s strong rally last week suggests that pull back from 1.3418 has completed at 1.3081. Rebound from 1.2994 is possibly resuming. As a temporary top was formed at 1.3389, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3389 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3418 and then 100% projection of 1.2994 to 1.3418 from 1.3081 at 1.3505. On the downside, though, break of 1.3225 minor support will mix up the near term outlook again, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3081 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.