Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2334; (P) 1.2366; (R1) 1.2394; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations should be seen first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2592 support turned resistance to bring another fall. As noted before, rebound from 1.2005 should be finished at 1.2947. Below 1.2335 temporary low will target 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high). is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4055; (P) 1.4119; (R1) 1.4238; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.4275 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 1.4667 has completed at 1.3920. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.4667/4689 resistance zone. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3264 last week but retreated sharply since then. However, the pair is staying inside near term rising channel, and well above 1.3056 support. Thus, there is no indication of reversal yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 1.3056 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3264 will resume the rise from 1.2781 and target 1.3385 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of break of 1.3056 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4667 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.3714. But as a temporary low was formed there, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, focus will be on whether USD/CAD could decisive break 1.3664 key cluster support on next fall. On the upside, break of 1.4048 resistance will indicate near term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for stronger rise.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 1.3664 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.4667 at 1.3672. As long as this support holds, rise for 1.2061 is seen as in progress and should resume through 1.4667/4689 resistance zone at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.3664 will argue that consolidation from 1.4689 (2016 high) is extending with another fall leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will 1.6196 (2002 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.2944) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3308; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3351; More…

USD/CAD failed to break through 1.3347 and consolidation is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3206 support holds. Break of 1.3347 will target 1.3382 resistance first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.3016. However, break of 1.3206 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3133 support instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2623; (P) 1.2661; (R1) 1.2711; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, firm break of 1.2619 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). That would also argue that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 1.2286 support, and possibly further to 1.2005 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.2812 resistance will retain near term bullishness, and target 1.2963 and then 1.3022 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3242; (P) 1.3273; (R1) 1.3292; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. We’re still favoring the case that pull back from 1.3382 has completed at at 1.3133 already. Above 1.3310 will target retest of 1.3382 first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.3016 and target 1.3564 resistance next. However, break of 1.3209 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2595; (P) 1.2632; (R1) 1.2666; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and further rise is mildly in favor with 1.2553 minor support intact. Pull back from 1.2964 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2448. Above 1.2700 will target 1.2812 resistance first, and then 1.2963. On the downside, below 1.2553 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2564; (P) 1.2605; (R1) 1.2632; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Current down trend from 1.14667 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2385. On the upside, though, break of 1.2745 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2880 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3440; (P) 1.3467; (R1) 1.3485; More…

USD/CAD dips notably in early US session but stays well above 1.3357 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3540/3 will resume the rise from 1.3176. That will also revive that case that whole fall from 1.3897 has completed, and target this resistance. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3357 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed, and target this low for resuming whole fall from 1.3897.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2983; (P) 1.3041; (R1) 1.3113; More…

USD/CAD’s strong rebound today dampens the bearish case and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3132 resistance will also have near term falling channel taken out. That will add to the case that whole fall from 1.3385 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3225 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 1.2969 should finally confirm completion of rebound form 1.2781. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this 1.2781 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection from the channel resistance from 1.3385 suggests that such corrective fall is not completed yet. And, a new low below 1.2781 would likely be seen. Nevertheless, we’d expect strong support inside 1.2527/1.2723 zone to contain downside to resume the up trend from 1.2061. The support zone represents 50% and 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385. On the upside, break of 1.3132 resistance will target a test on 1.3385 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.2997; (R1) 1.3021; More….

USD/CAD’s fall continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.2928 support. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole down trend from 1.4667. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2887, and then 100% projection at 1.2711. On the upside, above 1.3025 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the consolidation from 1.2928 with another rising leg first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2489; (P) 1.2532; (R1) 1.2565; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.2646 will resume the rebound from 1.2363. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds, and eventual downside breakout is expected. On the downside, break of 1.2501 minor support will bring retest of 1.2363 low first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2812; (P) 1.2857; (R1) 1.2941; More…

USD/CAD’s breach of 1.2935 suggests resumption of 1.2286. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2947 resistance, and then 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.2762 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

USD/CAD’s rally accelerated to as high as 1.4667 last week, but missed 1.4689 key resistance and pulled back. A short term top is formed and initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained above 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, sustained break of 1.4689 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection form 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2951 at 1.6216. That is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2036; (P) 1.2057; (R1) 1.2084; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. We’d continue to stay cautious on strong support from 1.2048/61 cluster level to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2201 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2448 resumed and surged to 1.2876, but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first, but further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2680 support holds. Break of 1.2876 will resume the rise to 1.2963 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.2680 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3681; (P) 1.3747; (R1) 1.3835; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first and consolidation from 1.3860 could extend. But further rally is expected as long as 1.3650 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3860 will resume the rally from 1.3261 to retest 1.3976 high. However, firm break of 1.3650 will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3552).

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, break of 1.3261 support is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2863; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2982; More….

At this point, USD/CAD is holding above 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789). Intraday bias remains neutral and bullish outlook is unchanged. That is, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3124 will extend recent rally to 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2741).

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3450; (P) 1.3471; (R1) 1.3486; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook as it’s staying in consolidation from 1.3521. Intraday bias remains neutral first. More sideway trading could be seen and in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3278). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.