USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3173 last week but failed to break near term falling channel and dropped sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first with focus on 1.3049 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of rebound from 1.2961. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support. Sustained break there will carry lower bearish implication and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.3173 will revive the bullish case of near term reversal and target 1.3289 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2965) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD was bounded in range trading last week, between 1.2604/2962. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.2619 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). That would also argue that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 1.2286 support, and possibly further to 1.2005 low. On the upside, though, above 1.2963 will target 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3167; (P) 1.3224; (R1) 1.3269; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3664 reached as low as 1.3180 so far. Downside momentum is diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3118. We’ll start look for bottoming sign below there. On the upside, above 1.3267 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3394) remains intact.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3385; (P) 1.3414; (R1) 1.3433; More…

USD/CAD drops sharply through 1.3376 support to as low as 1.3357 so far. Current fall is seen as part of the consolidation pattern from 1.3521. Thus, in case of deeper decline, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3052; (P) 1.3092; (R1) 1.3138; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.4667 is in progress. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.4048 to 1.3315 from 1.3715 at 1.2982. On the upside, break of 1.3239 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break out 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3854; (P) 1.3889; (R1) 1.3916; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.4081 minor resistance suggests that corrective fall from 1.4667 might have completed at 1.3885. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4349 resistance first. Decisive break will target 1.4667/89 resistance zone. While correction from 1.4667 might still extend, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2650; (P) 1.2689; (R1) 1.2721; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2795 is extending. Further rise is expected with 1.2558 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will target 1.2812 and then 1.2963 resistance. However, break of 1.2558 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3839; (P) 1.3921; (R1) 1.3965; More….

USD/CAD is staying in corrective pattern from 1.4667 and deeper fall would be seen through 1.3855 support. However, downside should be contained by 1.3762/3 cluster to bring rebound (61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762, 61.8% projection of 1.4667 to 1.3855 from 1.4265 at 1.3763). On the upside, break of 1.4265 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4667 high. However, sustained break of 1.3762/3 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3453.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2656; (R1) 1.2682; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside. Decline from 1.3075 is in progress for 1.2401 support. . Firm break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.2005 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen to retest this low. On the upside, above 1.2763 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2422; (P) 1.2463; (R1) 1.2539; More…

USD/CAD’s rally from 1.2286 accelerates to as high as 1.2583 so far today. As noted before, fall from 1.2947 might have completed with three waves down to 1.2286. Further rally would be seen back to retest 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.2478 minor support will mix up near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair draw support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2940; (R1) 1.2980; More…

At this point, we’d still expect strong support from 1.2886 to contain downside to complete the decline from 1.3225. On the upside, break of 1.3063 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3225 first. However, break of 1.2886 will resume whole choppy fall from 1.3385 and could target 1.2526 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

USD/CAD dropped further to 1.2883 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. While the decline was deeper than we expected, it;’s held by 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879. So, we’ll hold on to the view that larger rise from 1.2061 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.2975 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3063 first. Break will target 1.3225 key near term resistance. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen our view and target 50% retracement at 1.2723 next.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level. As long as it holds, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2411; (P) 1.2484; (R1) 1.2525; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2589 temporary top. Another rise is still in favor as long as 1.2301 support holds. Break of 1.2589 will target 1.2653 structural resistance to confirm larger bullish reversal. However, on the downside, break of 1.2301 support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2005 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2607; (P) 1.2669; (R1) 1.2706; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.2619 support will complete a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). That would also argue that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 1.2286 support, and possibly further to 1.2005 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.2812 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and target 1.2963 and then 1.3022 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3091; (P) 1.3120; (R1) 1.3141; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook. Despite diminishing upside momentum, with 1.2969 support intact, further rise is expected. The choppy decline from 1.2285 should have completed 1.2781 already. Rise from 1.2781 should target 1.3225 resistance to confirm this bullish case, and pave the way to 1.3385 next. However, break of 1.2969 will mix up the outlook again and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

USD/CAD’s rebound attempt was limited at 1.4349 last week and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Consolidation from 1.4667 might extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4349 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2951 at 1.6216. That is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2527; (P) 1.2607; (R1) 1.2649; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3075 is still in progress, and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.2401 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.2005 has completed, after rejection by 1.3022 fibonacci resistance. Deeper fall would then be seen to retest this low. On the upside, above 1.2685 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3145; (P) 1.3182; (R1) 1.3214; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside for 1.3068 key support. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But decisive break will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3225 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.3340 first. Break of 1.3340 will resume the rebound from 1.3068 towards 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3109) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.2996 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated sharply. Further decline is mildly in favor in initially this week. But after all, we’re favoring the bullish case that rebound from 1.2061 hasn’t completed. Therefore, downside should be contained well above 1.2526 support and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.2859 will bring retest of 1.2996 first. However, firm break of 1.2526 will resume the fall from 1.3124 to 1.2246 support and likely below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3389; (P) 1.3414; (R1) 1.3449; More….

USD/CAD breaks through 1.3464 resistance decisively today and hits as high as 1.3761 so far. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3464 resistance turned support holds. Further rally should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3814 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) are seen as a corrective move that has completed at 1.2951. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be ready to resume. Decisive break 1.3664 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 next. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3202 support holds, in case of deep pull back.