Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2694; (P) 1.2747; (R1) 1.2845; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2286 should target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2639 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2728; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2790; More….

USD/CAD’s downside momentum diminished a bit as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, near term trend should have reversed with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Decline from 1.3124 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Also, noted that current development suggest rejection by 1.3065 fibonacci level. And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2246 and below eventually. On the upside, above 1.2846 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But break of 1.2942 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlooks is turned a bit mixed again. Strong support was seen from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. But there was no follow through buying above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3621; (P) 1.3648; (R1) 1.3682; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Strong bounce from current level will confirm support by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628). Break of 1.3689 minor resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed, and bring stronger rally to 1.3761 resistance. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3286; (R1) 1.3366; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3310 resistance suggests resumption of rebound from 1.3133. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3382 resistance first. Break will resume whole rise from 1.3016 and target 1.3564 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.3206 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3597; (P) 1.3634; (R1) 1.3679; More….

Break of 1.3638 suggests that USD/CAD’s rally is resuming and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 1.3653 should confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, and target a test on this high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3488 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3436) holds.

USD/CAD’s correction from 1.4667 extended lower last week and outlook is unchanged. Further decline could be seen initially this week. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4275 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4667 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 is (2007 low) is in progress. Decisive break of 1.4689 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2951 at 1.6216. That is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5494; (P) 1.5523; (R1) 1.5543; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for retesting 1.2994 low. Larger fall from 1.4667 might be resuming. Firm break of 1.2994 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4667 to 1.2994 from 1.3418 at 1.2384. On the upside, though, break of 1.3242 support turned resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3340; (P) 1.3367; (R1) 1.3416; More….

USD/CAD’s rally accelerates to as high as 1.3436 so far and intraday bias stays on the upside. Triangle consolidation from 1.3664 has completed at 1.2951. Break of 61.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3436 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3580 next. On the downside, below 1.3374 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3202 support to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has likely completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high. However, break of 1.3202 support could extend the corrective with another fall through 1.2951 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2681; (P) 1.2715; (R1) 1.2777; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, break of 1.2652 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2448 has completed at 1.2876. Deeper fall should be seen back to retest 1.2448 low. However, break of 1.2876 will resume the rise from 1.2448 to 1.2963 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2594; (P) 1.2681; (R1) 1.2726; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.2639 in USD/CAD with the steep fall from 1.2852. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.2286 might be finished at 1.2852. Deeper fall would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2592). Sustained break there will bring deeper fall to 1.2286 support. Nevertheless, rebound from the current level and break of 1.2742 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.2852.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2498; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2600; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.2363. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds, and eventual downside breakout is expected. On the downside, break of 1.2501 minor support will bring retest of 1.2363 low first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2726; (P) 1.2759; (R1) 1.2799; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2928 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 1.2706 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2426.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2804; (P) 1.2865; (R1) 1.2896; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point and further rally is expected with 1.2762 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2963 will resume the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2286 at 1.3228.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

USD/CAD’s recovered further to 1.3259 last week but lost momentum well ahead of 55 day EMA and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.3086 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3259 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633, to correct the whole fall from 1.4667. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 1.3086 will bring retest of 1.2994 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break of 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2563; (P) 1.2584; (R1) 1.2616; More…

USD/CAD is losing some downside momentum again as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further fall is expected with 1.2685 resistance intact, towards 1.2401 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.2005 has completed, after rejection by 1.3022 fibonacci resistance. Deeper fall would then be seen to retest this low. On the upside, above 1.2685 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2997; (P) 1.3054; (R1) 1.3163; More…

USD/CAD’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 1.3174 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404 next. On the downside, below 1.3085 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staying another rally.

In the bigger picture, the current development affirms our bullish view. That is, firstly, rebound from 1.2061 is not finished yet. Secondly, the medium term decline from 1.4689 (2016 high) has completed and the trend is reversing. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will confirm our view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685 and above. 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3519; (P) 1.3593; (R1) 1.3658; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.3315 short term bottom would target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4151. On the downside, break of 1.3315 is now needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.4667. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the upside in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2682; (P) 1.2727; (R1) 1.2817; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.2492 continues today. Further rise would be seen to 1.2492 resistance first. Also, larger rise from 1.2005 is still in progress with 1.2421 support intact. Break of 1.2947 will confirm resumption for 1.3022 fibonacci level next. On the downside, though, break of 1.2635 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2421 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.2928 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3206) and above. But still, as long as 1.3389 resistance intact, larger fall from 1.4667 is in favor to resume. Break of 1.3057 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.2928 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2485; (P) 1.2540; (R1) 1.2578; More….

Breach of 1.2519 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 1.2363 has completed at 1.2646. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.2363 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2079. On the upside, break of 1.2646 will resume the rebound. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.