Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2579; (P) 1.2660; (R1) 1.2715; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as down trend from 1.4667 is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4667 to 1.2994 from 1.3389 at 1.2355. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2798 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2760; (P) 1.2794; (R1) 1.2843; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. For now, we’re still favoring the bullish case that rise from 1.2061 is still in progress. Above 1.2996 resistance will affirm this view and target 1.3124 and above. However, break of 1.2728 will now dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2294; (P) 1.2332; (R1) 1.2355; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Current decline from 1.2947 is in progress for 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next. On the upside, above 1.2408 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high). is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.3330 last week but recovered ahead of 1.3315 low. A short term bottom is probably in place. Initial bias will stay mildly on the upside for further rebound to 1.3715 resistance. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, firm break of 1.3315 will resume the fall from 1.4667 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

USD/CAD rebound strongly towards the end of the week, but stays below 1.2201 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. We’d stay cautious on strong support from 1.2048/61 to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 1.2201 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will be a sign of long term bearishness. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2820; (P) 1.2842; (R1) 1.2887; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2852 confirms resumption of rise from 1.2286. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2947 resistance next. Firm break there will target 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.2781 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 1.2604 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3623; (P) 1.3638; (R1) 1.3662; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. On the downside, firm break of 1.3589 support will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed at 1.3845 already. Fall from 1.3845 should then resume to 61.8% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845 at 1.3432. Nevertheless, break of 1.3742 resistance will revive near term bullishness and target a retest on 1.3845 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

USD/CAD rose further to 1.3381 last week but subsequent fall suggests temporary topping, ahead of 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Deeper pull back could be see to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) and below. But downside should be contained above 1.2948 support to bring another rally. ON the upside, firm break of 1.3381 should target 1.3685 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, current development solidify the view of bullish trend reversal. That is fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2916 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high). The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406) and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3133 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3271 resistance holds. Break of 1.3133 will resume larger fall from 1.4667 to long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. On the upside, considering bullish convergence condition, firm break of 1.3271 should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3448).

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3091 extended higher last week and it’s now pressing 1.3386 resistance. Sustained break of 1.3386 will argue that whole correction from 1.3976 has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Further rally would then be seen to 1.3653 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3386, followed by break of 1.3260 minor support, should resume larger decline through 1.3091 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976 towards 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3057) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2813; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2896; More….

USD/CAD continues to stay in range of 1.2802/3124 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral first. For the moment, we continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2750) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3180; (P) 1.3263; (R1) 1.3306; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3382 extends lower today. Break of 1.3247 minor support indicates completion of rebound from 1.3016. Intraday bias is back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low. On the upside, break of 1.3382 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.3016 instead.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2639; (P) 1.2692; (R1) 1.2723; More…

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is expected with 1.2583 minor support intact. Current rise from 1.2286 should target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 1.2583 minor support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

USD/CAD’s corrective fall from 1.3385 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.3023 before forming a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week first, for some sideway trading. With 1.3114 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. Break of 1.3023 will target 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967 and possibly below. But still, we’d expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2890) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3114 is the first sign of bottoming and will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3289 resistance. Overall, the larger rally from 1.2061 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.12890) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406) and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2455; (P) 1.2473; (R1) 1.2500; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Focus stays on 1.2421 key structural support. Larger rise from 1.2005 should still be intact as long as 1.2421 holds. On the upside, break of 1.2592 support resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2773 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.2421 will argue that whole choppy rise from 1.2005 has completed. Deeper fall could then be seen back to retest 1.2005 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 1.2684) revives some medium term bearishness in USD/CAD. Still as long as 1.2005 support holds, we’d expect another rise ahead, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. Sustained break there will indicate larger bullish reversal. However, firm break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2998; (P) 1.3011; (R1) 1.3030; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside for retesting 1.2928 low. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Next near term targets will be 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2887, and then 100% projection at 1.2711. On the upside, break of 1.3112 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to resume the rebound from 1.2928 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2977; (P) 1.3013; (R1) 1.3056; More…..

USD/CAD’s sharp decline overnight dampened out bullish view. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 1.2728 support. Break there will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2526 at 1.3046. And in that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2526 and below. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 1.2728 will put focus back to 1.3046 resistance first. Break there will revive the bullish case of trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3224 support last week indicates that deeper correction is underway. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092 next. On the upside, above 1.3353 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are still viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), but chance of trend reversal is increasing with current decline. But in either case, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3653 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3046) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3234; (R1) 1.3283; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.3177 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3177 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Decisive break there will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2694; (P) 1.2747; (R1) 1.2845; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2286 should target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2639 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.