Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3211; (P) 1.3238; (R1) 1.3260; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for further rally. Sustained trading above 1.3225 will confirm completion of choppy fall from 1.3385. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.3385 high. On the downside, break of 1.3056 support is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

USD/CAD gyrated in range of 1.3490/3715 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.3490 support holds, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3715 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, however, break of 1.3490 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3059; (P) 1.3110; (R1) 1.3150; More…

USD/CAD recovers mildly today but stays below 1.3165 resistance. Further decline could be seen. But we’d start to be cautious on bottoming as it approaches channel support (now at 1.3056). On the upside break of 1.3165 will turn bias to the upside for rebounding towards 1.3375 resistance. However, sustained break of the channel support will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.2891.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3049) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2500; (P) 1.2544; (R1) 1.2568; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2421 is extending. As long as 1.2605 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.2421 will resume the fall from 1.2805 to 1.2301 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.2805 at 1.2311). On the upside, break of 1.2605 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2805 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD dived to as low as 1.2781 last week but recovered strongly since then. But upside is limited well below 1.3081 resistance so far. Thus, there is no clear sign of near term reversal yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2781 will will extend whole decline from 1.3385 to next fibonacci level at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

In the bigger picture, corrective rebound from 1.2061 could have completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. For now, we’re not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we’ll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 . On the upside, though, break of 1.3081 resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.3385 is completed and rise from 1.2061 is resuming for another high above 1.3385.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD staged a strong rebound late last week and initial bias is now back on the upside this week. Decisive break of 1.3340 resistance should complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.3180, h: 1.3068, rs: 1.3112). That should indicate completion of pull back from 1.3664. In this case, further rally should be seen back to 1.3664 high. On the downside, though, break of 1.3235 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3118) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.2005 resumed last week and closed strongly at 1.2616. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.2653 structure resistance. Sustained break there will confirm near term reversal. Stronger rise would then be seen to 1.3022 medium term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2423 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It might have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will be a sign of long term bearishness. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

USD/CAD’s sharp fall last week and break of 1.3081 support argues that consolidation pattern from 1.2994 might have completed at 1.3389 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.2994 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. On the upside, however, break of 1.3178 resistance will mix up the near term outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA is keeping outlook bearish. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2515; (P) 1.2537; (R1) 1.2557; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with loss of downside momentum. On the downside, below 1.2492 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 1.2421 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2005 has completed at 1.2947 already. Near term outlook will be turned back for 1.2301 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2701 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3517; (P) 1.3556; (R1) 1.3621; More….

The breach of 1.3642 minor resistance in USD/CAD suggests completion of the pull back from 1.3715. Also, with 1.3485 support defended, near term bullishness is retained and further rise is in favor. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3715 resistance first. Break will extend the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, however, break of 1.3485 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3103; (P) 1.3124; (R1) 1.3147; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation continues in range of 1.3048/3170. On the upside, break of 1.3170 target 1.3225 key near term resistance. Break will confirm completion of choppy fall from 1.3385 and target a retest on this high. Though, break of 1.3048 will turn focus to 1.2969 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.2781. In that case, whole fall from 1.3385 might extend through 1.2781 support before completion.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3208; (P) 1.3244; (R1) 1.3273; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. With 1.3209 minor support, we’re still favoring the bullish case. That is, corrective pull back from 1.3382 has completed at 1.3133 and another rise is expected. On the upside, above 1.3310 will target 1.3382 resistance first. Break will resume the whole rise from 1.3016 and target 1.3564 resistance next. However, break of 1.3209 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low.

In the bigger picture, key cluster support of 1.3068 (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052/68 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2534; (P) 1.2607; (R1) 1.2647; More…

With the strong break of 1.2619 support, USD/CAD’s should have completed a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). The development argues that rise from is finished at 1.2963, and possibly the whole pattern from 1.2005 too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2286 support first. Break there will target 1.2005 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2812 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3380; (P) 1.3401; (R1) 1.3430; More…

USD/CAD recovers further today but it’s, after all, still bounded in range below 1.3444. Consolidation might extend and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3160 support holds, and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3444 will extend the larger up trend from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.3160 will indicate near term reversal and bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, such rise is not clearly impulsive yet. And it could be the second leg of the long term corrective pattern that started at 1.4689. Hence, even in case of further rally, we’d be cautious on loss of momentum and topping above 1.3685. Nevertheless, in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2969) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2869; (P) 1.2926; (R1) 1.3023; More….

While the rebound from 1.2802 was strong, it’s limited below 1.3000 resistance. Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3000 will resume medium term rebound from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, in case of another decline as consolidation from 1.3000 extends, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3000 at 1.2712 to contain downside and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3101; (P) 1.3127; (R1) 1.3153; More…

USD/CAD is staying below 1.3165 minor resistance for now and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 1.3068 will extend the fall from 1.3664. But we’d stay cautious on bottoming as USD/CAD is close to channel support (now at 1.3061). On the upside break of 1.3165 will turn bias to the upside for rebounding towards 1.3375 resistance. Firm break there will confirm that fall from 1.3664 has completed. However, sustained break of the channel support will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.2891.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3049) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2730; (P) 1.2783; (R1) 1.2836; More…

USD/CAD is losing upside momentum again as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2639 minor support holds. Rally from 1.2286 would target 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.2639 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2561).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3340 last week but failed to break through 1.3375 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidation could be seen. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1.3196 minor support holds. We’re favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. Decisive break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high. However, break of 1.3196 will now dampen our view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3068 support instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3095) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

USD/CAD’s decline extend to as low as 1.2544 last week but formed a temporary low there, drawing support from 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2814 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.2544 will target 1.2061/2246 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2560; (P) 1.2631; (R1) 1.2707; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Pull back from 1.2964 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2448. Further rally would be seen to 1.2812 resistance first, and then 1.2963. On the downside, below 1.2553 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.