Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2029; (P) 1.2058; (R1) 1.2074; More…

USD/CAD is still struggling in range around 1.2048/61 cluster support and intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d continue to stay cautious on strong support from 1.2048/61 cluster level to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2201 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3144; (P) 1.3164; (R1) 1.3183; More….

USD/CAD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.3115 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3204 holds. Below 1.3115 will resume the decline from 1.3327 and target 1.3042 key support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3204 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2620; (P) 1.2692; (R1) 1.2753; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral as the sideway pattern from 1.2947 is still extending. On the downside, break of 1.2592 support will extend the fall from 1.2891, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947, to 1.2492 and possibly below. Overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rally through 1.2947 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3243; (P) 1.3266; (R1) 1.3291; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.3239 in USD/CAD with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3363 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, choppy rise from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3564 already. Break of 1.3239 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3052/68 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term channel support now argues that up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.3664 (2018 high), just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, and 1.3793 resistance. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3564 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3418 resumed last week and edged lower to 1.3081. But it then lost downside momentum and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is mildly in favor with 1.3259 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.3081 will target a test on 1.2994 low. Break will resume the larger fall from 1.4667. However, break of 1.3259 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2994 with another rising leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3418 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3140; (R1) 1.3161; More….

USD/CAD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3327 resistance. We’re favoring the case that corrective pattern from 1.3664 has completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Break of 1.3327 should confirm this bullish view and pave the way for a retest on 1.3664 high. In any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3104 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.2863.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3504; (P) 1.3534; (R1) 1.3589; More….

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3566 extends lower today but stays well above 1.3313 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, it’s seen as extending the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. Above 1.3566 will resume the rebound towards 1.3666 resistance and then 1.3860. However, firm break of 1.3313 support will invalidate this view and indicate that deeper correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3321) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3179; (P) 1.3213; (R1) 1.3249; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is neutral for some consolidation below 1.3266. With 1.3105 minor support intact, further rally is in favor. Break of 1.3266 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3432/3564 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3105 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Decisive break there will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD’s choppy fall from 1.3385 extended lower to 1.2886 last week. But it quickly recovered ahead of 1.2879 fibonacci level. Near term outlook is mixed up. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week as long as 1.2997 minor support holds. Sustained of near term channel resistance (now at 1.3111) will will be the first sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rise to 1.3173 resistance for confirmation. That will also carry larger bullish implication. Meanwhile, below 1.2997 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2879 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879. Decisive break there will affirm the case of medium term reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below. That will also put key long term support at 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 into focus. On the upside, break of 1.3173 resistance will revive the bullish case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 1.2899 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some consolidations could be seen. For now, decline from 1.3124 is seen as completed with three waves down to 1.2526. The corrective structure suggests that later rebound from 1.2061 is not completed. Hence, retreat from 1.2899 should be contained by 1.2748 minor support and bring another rally. Break of 1.2899 will target 1.3124 high. However, firm break of 1.2748 will turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we’ll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that’s completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2729; (P) 1.2746; (R1) 1.2769; More…

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rise from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3492; (P) 1.3557; (R1) 1.3610; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.3315 is now needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.4667. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the upside in case of retreat. On the upside, break of 1.3686 will extend the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3353; (P) 1.3421; (R1) 1.3481; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.3356 temporary low. Another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.3572 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3356 will extend the decline from 1.4667 to 100% projection of 1.4667 to 1.3855 from 1.4048 at 1.3236 next. However, firm break of 1.3572 will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound would then be seen back to 1.3866 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.3664 resistance turned support, as well as the 55 week EMA (now at 1.3495), suggests that whole rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.4667 (after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds.

USD/CAD resumed the decline from 1.4667 and dropped to 1.3233 last week. But as it then staged a quick recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3459 resistance holds. Break of 1.3233 will target long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. However, firm break of 1.3459 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3715 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3058; (R1) 1.3123; More…

USD/CAD’s breach of 1.3091 suggests minor resistance suggests that fall from 1.3173 is possibly completed at 1.2986 already. More importantly, the rebound head of medium term channel support saves bullishness in the pair. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.3173 resistance. Break there will indicate completion of fall from 1.3385 and turn outlook bullish again. However, sustained trading below the channel support (now at 1.2982) will carry larger bearish implication and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2982) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 first. Sustained break will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3259 last week, held above 1.3086 minor support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is in expected. On the upside, break of 1.3259 will resume the rebound from 1.2994 short term bottom, targeting 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633, to correct the whole fall from 1.4667. However, on the downside, break of 1.3086 will bring retest of 1.2994 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break of 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2703; (P) 1.2743; (R1) 1.2767; More…

Range trading continue sin USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is mildly in favor with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rally from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2772; (P) 1.2813; (R1) 1.2838; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.3222 would target 1.2818 support. On the upside, above 1.2945 minor resistance will revive near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3222 instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2592; (P) 1.2668; (R1) 1.2709; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside as fall from 1.2876 resumed. As noted before, rebound from 1.2448 should have completed already. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.2448 support. Break there will target 1.2286 next. On the upside, above 1.2748 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2876 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2708; (P) 1.2751; (R1) 1.2780; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside, as rise from 1.2286 is in progress to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2639 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.