USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3534 extended to as low as 1.3275 last week before forming a temporary low and recovered. The decline was deeper than expected but still it’s seen as a correction pattern. Outlook is unchanged that we’d expect another rally through 1.3598 resistance to extend the whole rise from 1.2460.

Initial bias is neutral this week first. Below 1.3275 will bring deeper fall. But downside should be contained by 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3420 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3534 resistance and then 1.3598. However, sustained break of 1.3211 will dampen this view and target 1.2968 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

USD/CAD dropped sharply last week but stayed above 1.3017 support. Near term outlook is unchanged with initial bias stays neutral this week. We’re seeing price actions from 1.3588 as a consolidative pattern. Break of 1.3588 will extend the whole choppy rise from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838 and possibly above. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.3017 will indicate that rise from 1.2460 has completed and turn outlook bearish for 1.2460.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. As rise from 1.2460 is seen as a corrective move, we’d look for reversal signal above 1.3838. Meanwhile, break of 1.3017 will likely start the third leg to 1.2460 and below.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3433; (P) 1.3480; (R1) 1.3505; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.3439 in USD/CAD with current decline. Decisive break there will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed as a corrective move to 1.3605. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.3357 support first. On the upside, though, break of 1.3524 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3605 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3239; (P) 1.3319; (R1) 1.3360; More…

USD/CAD’s sharp decline through 1.3239 support confirms resumption of fall from 1.3564. The development also revise the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3052/68 cluster support next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3432 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3602; (P) 1.3618; (R1) 1.3641; More…

USD/CAD recovered notably today but stays below 1.3689 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong bounce from current level will confirm support by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628). Break of 1.3689 minor resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed, and bring stronger rally to 1.3761 resistance. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2804; (P) 1.2842; (R1) 1.2880; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as it lost momentum ahead of 1.2916 key near term resistance. On the upside, firm break of 1.2916 will resume whole rally from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 1.2598 to contain downside and bring rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2888). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3229; (R1) 1.3261; More…

With 1.3330 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected in USD/CAD for 1.3080 key support level. As noted before, price actions from 1.2460 are viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.3080 will indicate that it’s completed and turn outlook bearish for retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3330 minor resistance will turn focus back on 1.3588/98 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We’d start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we’ll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2643; (P) 1.2674; (R1) 1.2698; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.2412 short term bottom continues. Such rebound should be corrective whole fall from 1.3793. Further rise would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940. On the downside, break of 1.2552 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2412 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. A short term bottom is formed at 1.2412 after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.2415. But there is no sign of completion of the correction yet. Break of 1.2412 will target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3793 extended last week to as low as 1.2638. Break of near term falling channel showed further downside acceleration. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2460 low next. On the upside, above 1.2770 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3088; (P) 1.3114; (R1) 1.3130; More…

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3059 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.3052/68 cluster support zone will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2673 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.3151 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 1.3239/3432 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2449; (P) 1.2474; (R1) 1.2499; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. With 1.2326 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Above 1.2537 will target 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break of 1.2777 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. However, break of 1.2326 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2061 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

USD/CAD edged higher last week and consolidation from 1.2061 extended. Overall outlook is unchanged though. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We’d remain cautious on strong support from 1.2048 to bring sustainable rebound. But still, break of 1.2439 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Firm break of 1.2048 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.1424. Break of 1.2412 will bring stronger rise back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2538) and above.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. As long as this level holds, we’d still favor that case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rebound from 1.2048 could extend the larger up trend from 0.9406. However, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

In the longer term picture, the long term outlook is turned a bit mixed with the current downside acceleration. As noted above, 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 is a key level to determine whether up trend from 0.9056 (2007) has already completed.

USD/CAD’s consolidation pattern from 1.3387 extended last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3570 resistance and bring fall resumption. We’re holding on to the view that rise from 1.2968 has completed. And the larger rise from 1.2460 could have finished too. Below 1.3387 will target 1.3222 support first. Break of 1.3222 will affirm our bearish view and target 1.2968 key support level for confirmation. However, break of 1.3570 will turn focus back to 1.3793 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and could have completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2669; (P) 1.2682; (R1) 1.2699; More….

USD/CAD’s correction from 1.2916 is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2598 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 1.2819 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2916 high first. Break there will extend the rise from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2916). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3330; (P) 1.3366; (R1) 1.3413; More….

The breach of 1.3408 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 1.3263 is resuming. Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the upside for 1.3534 resistance. Break will target 1.3598 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3320 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 1.3534. But we’d expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. Overall, rise from 1.2968 is expected to resume later to extend through the whole medium term rise from 1.2460 through 1.3598.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2458; (P) 1.2476; (R1) 1.2502; More….

USD/CAD rebound strongly in early US session. But it’s still bounded in range below 1.2598. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2598 will extend the rebound from 1.2061 to 1.2777 resistance next. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2598 at 1.2393 to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. And in that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3793 resistance next. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3350; (P) 1.3393; (R1) 1.3416; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation continues below 1.3436 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But we’d expect downside to be contained well above 1.3209 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3436 will extend the whole rise from 1.2968 and target 1.3598 high. Break there will resume the medium term rally from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2884; (P) 1.2914; (R1) 1.2943; More….

USD/CAD continues to lower downside momentum. But at this point, it’s staying below 1.3013 resistance. Thus, deeper fall is expected for 1.2460 low. However, break of 1.3013 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back tot he upside for 1.3164/3346 resistance zone first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3354; (P) 1.3392; (R1) 1.3443; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is neutral for the moment but overall outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 1.3534 is not completed yet. Below 1.3341 will turn bias to the downside to 1.3263 and below. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 1.3184 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.2968 to 1.3534 at 1.3184, 100% projection of 1.3534 to 1.3263 from 1.3455 at 1.3814 too) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3455 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3534 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. However, break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring a retest of 1.2460 low. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2559; (P) 1.2608; (R1) 1.2695; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2706 resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.2947 has completed at 1.2492. That would also retain near term bullish after well defending 1.2421 support. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retest 1.2947 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.2005. However, below 1.2492 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 1.2421 key near term structural support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.