USD/CAD’s sideway consolidation continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.2598 resistance turned support intact, outlook remains bullish and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.2916 will resume the rise from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2885). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that correction from 1.4689 has completed with three waves down to 1.2061 already. And larger up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3793 resistance should now indicate up trend resumption through 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3280; (P) 1.3300; (R1) 1.3317; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3327 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 1.3190 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.3327 will resume the rise from 1.3042 to 1.3347/82 resistance zone. Firm break there will suggest completion of consolidation from 1.3664. However, break of 1.3190 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3042 support.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3430; (P) 1.3458; (R1) 1.3480; More….

USD/CAD falls mildly again today with weak momentum. As it’s staying in range above 1.3387, intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.3387 could still extend. But in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3570 resistance and bring fall resumption. We’re holding on to the view that rise from 1.2968 has completed. And the larger rise from 1.2460 could have finished too. Below 1.3387 will target 1.3222 support first. Break of 1.3222 will affirm our bearish view and target 1.2968 key support level for confirmation. However, break of 1.3570 will turn focus back to 1.3793 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and could have completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3062; (P) 1.3083; (R1) 1.3116; More…

USD/CAD is staying in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Focus stays on 1.3052/68 cluster support. Sustained trading below there will carry larger bearish implication, and bring further fall to 1.2673 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.3145 resistance, will indicate short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise should then be seen to 1.3239 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook stays neutral for now even though the case of bearish reversal is building up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3088; (P) 1.3149; (R1) 1.3222; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. A short term bottom should be formed at 1.3042, ahead of 1.3016 key support. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.3202) will bring further rise to 1.3382 resistance. For now, in case of another retreat, downside should be contained above 1.3042 to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3263; (P) 1.3284; (R1) 1.3301; More….

Further rise is expected in USD/CAD for 1.3327/9 resistance zone. Decisive break there should confirm completion of consolidation pattern from 1.3664. Next target will be 1.3664 high. On the downside, break of 1.3202 will extend the correction from 1.3329 with another fall. But downside should be contained above 1.3104 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move that has probably completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 high. However, break of 1.3104 resistance turned support will extend the corrective with another fall through 1.2951 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3331; (P) 1.3365; (R1) 1.3416; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as it’s staying in sideway trading between 1.3250/3467. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3467 resistance will resume rise from 1.3068. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.3664 next. On the downside, firm break of 1.3250 support will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2969; (P) 1.2988; (R1) 1.3008; More….

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral for some consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.3102 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2951 will target 1.2673 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. With 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 firmly taken out, further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3327 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3113; (P) 1.3139; (R1) 1.3161; More….

Prior break of 1.3143 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 1.3016, after drawing support from 1.3052/68 cluster support. Intraday bias remains on the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3215). For now, further rise will remain in favor in the near term as long as 1.3016 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3683; (P) 1.3716; (R1) 1.3769; More…

USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3626 resumed by breaking through 1.3733, but stays below 1.3790 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 1.3845 could extend further. While another fall could be seen, downside should be contained by 1.3589 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845 at 1.3589) to bring rebound. Break of 1.3790 resistance will argue that larger rise is ready to resume and target 1.3845 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

USD/CAD drops further today but it’s staying in consolidation pattern from 1.2916. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. As long as as long as 1.2598 resistance turned support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, firm break of 1.2916 will resume the rise from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2879). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case and deeper fall would be seen through 1.2450 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds. Break of 1.2450 will, however, suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has completed and bring retest of this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3641; (P) 1.3695; (R1) 1.3739; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Further rally is still expected with 1.3664 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3860 will resume the rally from 1.3261 to retest 1.3976 high. However, firm break of 1.3664 will mix up the near term outlook and bring deeper pullback first.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, break of 1.3261 support is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3341; (P) 1.3357; (R1) 1.3378; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.3250 support will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone. On the upside, break of 1.3467 will resume the rebound from 1.3068 and target a test on 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3575; (P) 1.3618; (R1) 1.3646; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3845 resumes with break of 1.3608 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and further fall would be seen to 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3631) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3689 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3673; (P) 1.3713; (R1) 1.3739; More…

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook as retreat from 1.3845 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Downside should be contained by 1.3660 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 1.3845 will resume the whole rally from 1.3716 to 1.3976 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2305; (P) 1.2348; (R1) 1.2415; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.2281 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2490 resistance holds. Below 1.2281 will resume the fall from 1.2919 and target 1.2061 low. However, break of 1.2490 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.2061 is likely completed completed at 1.2919, rejected by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2850) and kept below 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. The development also suggests that long term fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 1.2061 low will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2919 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2943; (P) 1.2981; (R1) 1.3009; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.3062. But outlook is unchanged that corrective decline from 1.3222 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2726. Above 1.3062 will resume the rebound to retest 1.3222 high. However, break of 1.2826 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2726 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3450; (P) 1.3474; (R1) 1.3494; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for 1.3399 minor support intact. Rallies from 1.2968 and 1.2460 are possibly resuming. Break of 1.3534 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 1.3598 high first. Decisive break there will pave the way to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.3838. On the downside, below 1.3399 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. However, break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring a retest of 1.2460 low. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2598 last week indicates that rebound from 1.2061 has resumed. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. On the downside, break of 1.2432 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. And in that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3793 key resistance next. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

In the longer term picture, the long term outlook is turned a bit mixed. As noted above, 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 is a key level to determine whether up trend from 0.9056 (2007) has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2388; (P) 1.2453; (R1) 1.2492; More….

With 1.2326 minor support intact, further rally is expected in USD/CAD. The pair should have successfully defended key long term fibonacci level at 2.1048. Rise from 1.2061 should extend to 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. However, break of 1.2326 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2061 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. As long as this level holds, we’d still favor that case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rebound from 1.2048 could extend the larger up trend from 0.9406. However, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.