Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2726; (P) 1.2784; (R1) 1.2815; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise is in favor as long as 1.2639 support holds. Above 1.2852 will resume the rise from 1.2286 to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.2639 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2593).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3313; (P) 1.3343; (R1) 1.3382; More…

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3534 resumed by taking out 1.3275 and reaches as low as 1.3263 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209). As such decline is viewed as a correction pattern, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3209/11 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3377 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3534 resistance and then 1.3598. However, sustained break of 1.3211 will dampen this view and target 1.2968 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2658; (P) 1.2719; (R1) 1.2806; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. As long as 1.2604 support holds, we’d still slightly favor another rally. Break of 1.2963 will target 1.3022 key medium term fibonacci level. Sustained break of 1.3022 will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.2604 will bring deeper fall back to 1.2286 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. On the downside, however, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3492; (P) 1.3557; (R1) 1.3610; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.3315 is now needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.4667. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the upside in case of retreat. On the upside, break of 1.3686 will extend the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2595; (P) 1.2696; (R1) 1.2757; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral with focus on 1.2635 support. Break there will extend the pattern from 1.2947 and turn intraday bias to the downside for 1.2492 support. But overall, rise from 1.2005 is still in progress with 1.2421 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2891 will bring retest of 1.2947 high first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2650; (P) 1.2676; (R1) 1.2728; More….

USD/CAD’s rally continues to as high as 1.2757 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Rebound from 1.2246 should be targeting 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.2687 from 1.2450 at 1.2891, which is close to 1.2919 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.2624 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally would be mildly in favor as long as 1.2450 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.2246 is mixing up the medium term outlook. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is staying below falling 55 week EMA (now at 1.2776), hence, the bearish case is in favor. That is, fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.2061 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. However, firm break of 1.2919 will revive the case of medium term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3564 last week as rise from 1.3068 resumed through 1.3521 resistance. Upside momentum is so far relatively week. But further rally is still expected as long as 1.3429 support holds. USD/CAD should target a test on 1.3664 high next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3335). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break of the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2774; (P) 1.2804; (R1) 1.2832; More….

A temporary low is formed at 1.2772 as USD/CAD lost downside momentum. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2928 support turned resistance and bring another fall. On the downside,e break of 1.2772 will target 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2711 next. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2426.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2658; (P) 1.2739; (R1) 1.2782; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first and further rally is expected with 1.2680 support intact. Above 1.2876 will resume the rise from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.2680 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 resumed last week and accelerated to close at 1.3770. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841. On the downside, below 1.3724 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3148; (P) 1.3209; (R1) 1.3259; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Rise from 1.2781 should have completed at 1.3359, ahead of 1.3385 key resistance. Further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3359 at 1.3138 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3002. On the upside, break of 1.3385 resistance is needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that medium term corrective pattern from 1.3385 is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2723 to bring rebound. An eventual upside break out is still expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2907; (P) 1.2985; (R1) 1.3036; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat. Corrective decline from 1.3222 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2726. Above 1.3062 will resume the rebound to retest 1.3222 high. However, break of 1.2826 support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2726 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3750; (P) 1.3780; (R1) 1.3829; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.3091 should target a retest on 1.3976 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 1.3750 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3568 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Decisive break of 1.3976 high will confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3378 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3229; (R1) 1.3261; More…

With 1.3330 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected in USD/CAD for 1.3080 key support level. As noted before, price actions from 1.2460 are viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.3080 will indicate that it’s completed and turn outlook bearish for retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3330 minor resistance will turn focus back on 1.3588/98 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We’d start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we’ll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3396; (R1) 1.3441; More…

While USD/CAD continues to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4H MACD, further rally is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.3897 to 1.3176 at 1.3451. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3622. On the downside, however, break of 1.3339 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3176 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. While fall from 1.3897 could still extend through 1.3091, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage.

USD/CAD rose to 1.3104 last week but failed to sustain above 1.3102 support turned resistance and retreated. Outlook is unchanged that it’s in consolidation and larger decline is expected to continue. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2951 will turn bias to the downside for 100% projection of 1.3564 to 1.3016 from 1.3327 at 1.2779 next. However, sustained break of 1.3102 will confirm short term bottoming and target 55 day EMA (now at 1.3149) and above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.2673. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2673 will put focus on 1.2061 low.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) in in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3316; (P) 1.3338; (R1) 1.3376; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3340 resistance completes a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.3180, h: 1.3068, rs: 1.3112). And the pull back from 1.3664 should have completed at 1.3068. Intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3664 and then 1.3685 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.3273 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3112 support instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3118) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2578; (P) 1.2612; (R1) 1.2656; More…

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.2675 will flip bias back to the upside for 1.2899 resistance instead. On the downside, below 1.2519 will bring retest of 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3212; (P) 1.3231; (R1) 1.3261; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3177 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3177 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Decisive break there will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3219; (P) 1.3258; (R1) 1.3324; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside. Current rally is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404 next. On the downside, below 1.3207 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, current development solidify the view of bullish trend reversal. That is fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2526 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.