GBP/USD’s rally extended to as high as 1.2989 last week, before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. In case of retreat, downside should be contained by 1.2582 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.2989 will extend the rally from 1.1958 to 161.8% projection of 1.1958 to 1.2582 from 1.2195 at 1.3205 next.

In the bigger picture, current development affirms the case of medium term bottoming at 1.1958, ahead of 1.1946 (2016 low). At this point, rise from 1.1958 is seen as the third leg of consolidation from 1.1946. Further rise would be seen back towards 1.4376 resistance. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.2195 support holds.

In the longer term picture, at this point, price actions from 1.1946 are seen developing into a corrective pattern. That is, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still expected to resume later. But sustained break of 1.4376 resistance will now be a strong signal of long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4023; (P) 1.4056; (R1) 1.4091; More….

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as it’s bounded in tight range above 1.4008 temporary low. On the downside, firm break of 1.3982 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 1.3982, followed by break of 1.4243 will target 1.4345 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4029; (P) 1.4062; (R1) 1.4112; More….

Intraday bias in GBP./USD is staying neutral as it’s bounded in sideway trading above 1.4008 temporary low. On the downside, firm break of 1.3982 support will indicate completion of the rise from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 1.3982, followed by break of 1.4095 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.4243. Break will resume the rally from 1.3711 for 1.4345 high first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2375; (P) 1.2441; (R1) 1.2554; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 1.2647 resistance. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.1409 for t 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.2647 from 1.2065 at 1.2830 next. On the downside, however, below 1.2363 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2065 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2960; (P) 1.3020; (R1) 1.3060; More….

GBP/USD’s decline re-accelerates to as low as 1.2905 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1958 to 1.3514 at 1.2920 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2552. On the upside, break of 1.3079 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3514 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is on track to retest 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2514; (P) 1.2551; (R1) 1.2592; More….

GBP/USD’s break of 1.2454 suggests resumption of fall from 1.2813. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.2473) will argue that whole rebound from 1.1409 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.2065 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 1.2587 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for rend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1395; (P) 1.1594; (R1) 1.1715; More…

A temporary low is formed at 1.1409 in GBP/USD with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2129 resistance to bring another decline. Break of 1.1409 will resume whole decline from 1.3514.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) has just resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2965; (P) 1.3008; (R1) 1.3092; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. The corrective fall form 1.3482 should have completed at 1.2675 already. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.3482/3514 resistance zone next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. On the downside, break of 1.2845 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.3415 key resistance now. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3312). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2883; (P) 1.2929; (R1) 1.3004; More….

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2391 resumes today by taking out 1.3001 and reaches as high as 1.3042 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3174 resistance, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3149. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.2830 support is needed to be the first sign of near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view. However, sustained break of 1.3174 will invalidate this case and turn outlook bullish.

GBP/USD’s up trend continued to 1.3865 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained well above 1.3564 support to bring another rise. Break of 1.3865 will resume larger up trend from 1.1409 to 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3459 last week but drew support from 55 week EMA and 1.3448 fibonacci level and recovered. A short term bottom is likely formed and initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3617 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3459 at 1.3809. On the downside, sustained break of 1.3448 fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.4376 and target next fibonacci level at 1.2874.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3861) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.

GBP/USD’s sharp decline last week confirmed short term topping at 1.3482. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690. Strong rebound from there will suggest that such decline is merely a corrective move. Break of 1.3035 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2690 will argue that the rise from 1.1409 might be completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2201.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 was strong, it’s limited by both 1.3514 resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.3317). The development keeps outlook bearish. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.2743) will add to medium term bearishness for a new low below 1.1409 at a later stage, resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high).

In the longer term picture, GBP/USD is staying below decade long trend line from 2.1161 (2007 high). It also struggles to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3317). Long term outlook stays bearish for now, despite bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.

GBP/USD’s down trend continued last week and hit as low as 1.1494. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.1409 long term support. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.3748 to 1.1759 from 1.2292 at 1.1063 next. On the upside, above 1.1759 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2292 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675. This will remain the favored case for now as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007) high is still in progress. Firm break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2609; (P) 1.2654; (R1) 1.2707; More…

GBP/USD’s rally continues today and the firm break of 1.2678 resistance should confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1.0351. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2759 fibonacci level, and then 61.8% projection of 1.1801 to 1.2678 from 1.2306 at 1.2848. On the downside, below 1.2628 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.2306 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.2306 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4011; (P) 1.4058; (R1) 1.4134; More….

GBP/USD’s rally from 1.3964 continues today and reaches as high as 1.4139 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.4243 resistance first. Break will target a test on 1.4345 high next. On the downside, below 1.4075 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.3964 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3651 resistance turned support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remain bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4267) so far. Break of 1.3651 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and turn focus to 1.3038 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2513; (P) 1.2589; (R1) 1.2628; More….

GBP/USD’s break of 1.2508 support argues that rebound from 1.2251 has completed at 1.2669. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2251 first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.2813 to test 1.2065 key near term support. On the upside, however, above 1.2669 temporary will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2813 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3964; (P) 1.4015; (R1) 1.4048; More….

GBP/USD recovery well ahead of 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 1.4087 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.3888 minor support holds, further rally is expected. As noted before, correction from 1.4345 could have completed at 1.3711 already. Above 1.4087 will target 1.4144 resistance first. Firm break there should confirm this bullish view and target 1.4345 and above. On the downside, however, break of 1.3888 minor support will dampen this bullish view. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside to extend the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3711 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1950; (P) 1.2112; (R1) 1.2221; More…

GBP/USD drops to as low as 1.1827 so far. Break of 1.1946/58 key support confirms larger down trend resumption. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Next near term target is 261.8% projection of 1.3514 to 1.2905 from 1.3200 at 1.1606 next. On the upside, above 1.2129 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.1946 (2016 low) indicates that larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high is resuming). Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.2881 as corrective fall from 1.3514 resumed. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.3514 to 1.2905 from 1.3209 at 1.2833 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.2600 next. On the upside, above 1.2959 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further decline is expected as long as 1.3209 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is not completed yet despite current pull back form 1.3514. Such rally is expected to resume later to 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still unsure whether long term down trend form 2.1161 (2007 high) has completed at 1.1946 already. Focus is immediately on 55 month EMA (now at 1.3489) and sustained break will be the first serious sign of long term reversal. Further break of trend line resistance (now at 1.3922) will be another signal. Focus would then be turned to 1.4376 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3072; (P) 1.3142; (R1) 1.3189; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues inside 1.3053/3284. On the downside, below 1.3053 will target 1.2905 support. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1958 to 1.3514 at 1.2920 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2552. On the upside, break of 1.3284 will bring retest of 1.3514 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is expected to extend higher to retest 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.