GBP/USD edged higher to 1.4232 last week but couldn’t break through 1.4240 high yet. Initial bias is neutral this week first considering loss of upside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.4098 support holds. Decisive break of 1.4240 will resume larger up trend for 1.4376 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4098 support will delay the bullish case. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.4240 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 1.1409 should still continue. Decisive break of 1.4376 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) at 1.5134. However, firm break of 1.3482 support will argue that the rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 1.2675 support and below.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3082; (P) 1.3126; (R1) 1.3194; More….

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. With 1.3005 support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.1409 to 1.2647 from 1.2065 at 1.3303 will pave the way to 1.3514 structural resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.3006 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2848).

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3209; (P) 1.3289; (R1) 1.3384; More…

GBP/USD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and hit as low as 1.3193. While further decline cannot be ruled out, we’d look for some support from 1.3164 fibonacci level to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3369 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3512 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.3164 will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it’s a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3833 resistance will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.4248 high. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3700; (P) 1.3724; (R1) 1.3768; More….

GBP/USD’s break of 1.3758 resistance now suggests that up trend from 1.1409 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. On the downside, break of 1.3679 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring more consolidations again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3523; (P) 1.3566; (R1) 1.3598; More…

GBP/USD continues to be bounded in right range of 1.3459/3617 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen. Break of 1.3617 will turn bias to the upside for stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3459 at 1.3809. On the downside, sustained break of 1.3448 fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.4376 and target next fibonacci level at 1.2874.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3861) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3011; (P) 1.3068; (R1) 1.3122; More….

GBP/USD’s fall form 1.3284 extends to as low as 1.2961 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1958 to 1.3514 at 1.2920 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2552. On the upside, above 1.3097 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3284 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is expected to extend higher to retest 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3588; (P) 1.3639; (R1) 1.3668; More…

GBP/USD’s break of 1.3691 minor resistance argues that fall form 1.3912 might have completed at 1.3608, after defending 1.3570/3601 support zone. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3912 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.3570 will target 1.3482 key support level. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.3163 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, we’d still treat price actions from 1.4248 as a corrective move. That is, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is in favor to resume. Decisive break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) would indeed carry long term bullish implications. However, sustained break of 1.3482 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, or even further to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2392; (P) 1.2481; (R1) 1.2549; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.2601 minor resistance intact. Current down trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2258. On the upside, above 1.2601 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2999 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, ahead of 1.4376 long term resistance (2018 high). Based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 is probably the start of a long term down trend. The break of 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493 is affirming this bearish case too. For now, deeper decline would be seen as long as 1.3158 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3615; (P) 1.3663; (R1) 1.3714; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for now and further rise is still in favor with 1.3608 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3758 will extend the whole up trend from 1.1409 to 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.3608 support will now suggest short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3011; (P) 1.3037; (R1) 1.3074; More…

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation pattern from 1.3514 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.3209 resistance intact, another fall is mildly in favor through 1.2872 at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3209 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3514 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is not completed yet despite current pull back form 1.3514. Such rally is expected to resume later to 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3289; (P) 1.3365; (R1) 1.3442; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3482 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 1.1409. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. On the downside, break of 1.3283 support will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the consolidation from 1.3482 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3308). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2113; (P) 1.2201; (R1) 1.2249; More

GBP/USD is extending the consolidation pattern from 1.2036 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside breakout is still mildly in favor. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2036 will resume whole decline from 1.3141 for 1.1801 support next. However, break of 1.2336 will turn bias back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top could still be a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) only. But risk of complete trend reversal is rising. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1417. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2384) holds, in case of rebound.

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.2506 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2802). We’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.2506 at 1.2840 to limit upside. On the downside break of 1.2642 minor support will turn intraday bias back to retest 1.2506 low. However, sustained break of 1.2840 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.3047 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don’t expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, consolidative pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) could still extend with another rising leg. But after all, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 is needed to indicate long term reversal. Otherwise, an eventual downside breakout will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2983; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3039; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3514 is still extending. With 1.3209 resistance intact, another fall is mildly in favor through 1.2872 at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3209 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3514 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is not completed yet despite current pull back form 1.3514. Such rally is expected to resume later to 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.3601 extended further last week and hit as high as 1.3890. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.3982 resistance first. Decisive break there will l indicate that fall from 1.4248 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.4248. However, on the downside, break of 1.3730 support will bring retest of 1.3570/3601 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, we’d still treat price actions from 1.4248 as a corrective move. That is, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is in favor to resume. Decisive break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) would indeed carry long term bullish implications. However, sustained break of 1.3482 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, or even further to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3328; (P) 1.3369; (R1) 1.3436; More…

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as the corrective rebound from 1.3203 is in progress. Further rise could be seen but upside should be limited by 1.3617 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3293 minor support will likely resume the fall from 1.47376 through 1.3203 for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3648) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2763; (P) 1.2899; (R1) 1.2976; More…

GBP/USD’s down trend continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2655 On the upside, above 1.2861 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, ahead 1.4376 long term resistance (2018 high). Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3158 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2630; (P) 1.2701; (R1) 1.2789; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is mildly on the upside for retesting 1.2826 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.2036. Nevertheless, another fall and break of 1.2611 will bring deeper correction to 1.2499 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg that’s in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2832; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2963; More…

GBP/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2784 support first. Break will target 1.2661 low next. Decisive break of 1.2661 will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, break of 1.3044 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

GBP/USD stayed in range below 1.2292 resistance last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias will remain neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.2292 resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1932; h: 1.1769; rs: 1.2002). Further rally should then be seen to 1.2666 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2002 will bring deeper fall back to retest 1.1759 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2897).

In the longer term picture, rebound from 1.1409 long term bottom should have completed at 1.4248 already, well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. The development argues that price actions from 1.1409 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, long term bearishness is retained for resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.