GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2251 extended higher to 1.2669 last week. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2508 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2669 will target a test on 1.2813 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.2508 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2251 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

In the longer term picture, long term outlook remains clearly bearish, as it’s held well below long term falling trend line that started back at 2116 (2007 high). Prior rejections by 55 month EMA also affirmed bearishness. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3514 resistance holds.

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3748 continued last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3158 first. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3416 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2466; (P) 1.2533; (R1) 1.2578; More…

GBP/USD retreated sharply after hitting 1.2598, but recovered just ahead of 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral. Break of 1.2598 will resume the rebound from 1.2306 towards 1.2678. Based on current momentum, upside should be limited there, to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2678. On the downside, break of 1.2367 will target 1.2306 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2494; (P) 1.2535; (R1) 1.2591; More….

GBP/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2647 resistance. Break there will resume the whole rise from 1.1409 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.2647 from 1.2065 at 1.2830 next. On the downside, however, below 1.2375 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2065 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3736; (P) 1.3755; (R1) 1.3777; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound form 1.3601 short term bottom would target 1.3982 resistance first. Decisive break there will pave the way back to retest 1.4248 high. On the downside, break of 1.3678 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3570 low, and possibly further to 1.3482 key resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, after failing 1.4376 resistance. Fall from there could either be correcting the rise from 1.1409, or starting another falling leg inside long term sideway pattern. In either case, sustained break of 1.3482 resistance turned support will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 first. Break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2345; (P) 1.2408; (R1) 1.2442; More…

GBP/USD’s sharp fall today and break of 1.2346 indicates that rebound from 1.1986 has completed at 1.2705 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1946/86 support zone. The consolidation pattern from 1.1946 has possibly completed at 1.2705 too. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. Nonetheless, on the upside, above 1.2478 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2685; (P) 1.2723; (R1) 1.2772; More….

Upside momentum continues to diminish in GBP/USD as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is still in favor as long as 1.2480 support holds, to 1.2813. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.1409. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.1409 to 1.2647 from 1.2065 at 1.3303. However, break of 1.2480 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2251 support.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.3549 last week, formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. But retreat should be contained by 1.3337 resistance turned support to bring another rise. Above 1.3549 will target 1.3651 and above. However, decisive break of 1.3337 will argue that rise from 1.3038 has complete d and turn bias back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, while the medium term rebound from 1.1946 low is strong, it’s still limited below 1.3835 key support turned resistance. As long as 1.3835 holds, we’d view such rebound as a correction. That is, we’d expect another leg in the long term down trend through 1.1946 low. However, sustained break of 1.3835 should at least send GBP/USD to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

In the longer term picture, long the outlook is turned a bit mixed as GBP/USD failed to sustain above long term falling tend line resistance, nor 1.3835 key resistance. We’ll stay neutral first and assess the outlook again and price actions unfold.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2694; (P) 1.2728; (R1) 1.2765; More…

GBP/USD’s rally from 1.2517 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Further rise would be seen to 1.2826 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2036, and target 61.8% projection of 1.2036 to 1.2826 from 1.2517 at 1.3005 next. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2599 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which could be still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2721; (R1) 1.2773; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, below 1.2618, and sustained trading below 1.2678 resistance turned support will argue that it’s already in a larger correction. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.2817 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 1.3141 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.2726) should confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075, as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). For now, rise will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2548; (P) 1.2581; (R1) 1.2638; More…

GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2036 should target for 61.8% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2716 next. On the downside, below 1.2523 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Strong rebound from 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 suggests that current rise from 1.2036 is already the second leg. However, while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

GBP/USD’s decline last week suggests that a short term top was already formed at 1.2731. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2441). Sustained break there will bring retest of 1.2036 low. On the upside, above 1.2611 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, that could still extend through 1.2731. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 o bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 EMA will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again, and possibly below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3193; (P) 1.3245; (R1) 1.3334; More…

GBP/USD lost momentum after hitting 1.3328 and retreated. But with 1.3224 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally is expected to target 1.3444 key resistance next. At this point, we’d maintain that price actions from 1.1946 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3444 to limit upside to bring larger down trend reversal eventually. On the downside below, 1.3224 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. However, firm break of 1.3444 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.3835/5016 resistance first zone first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2773 support will be the first sign that such down trend is resuming. However, considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, firm break of 1.3444 will argue that whole down trend from 2.1161 (2007) has completed. And stronger rise would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1946 at 1.5466.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1766; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.1961; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2028 is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2028 will resume whole rise from 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288. However, sustained break of 1.1644 will bring deeper fall to 1.1145 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1145 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2683; (P) 1.2709; (R1) 1.2730; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral even though it’s trying to extending the recovery from 1.2589. On the upside, firm break of 1.2847 will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. On the downside, though, break of 1.2589 will extend the fall from 1.2847 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2558).

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 1.2341) is a medium term bullish sign. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2306 support holds. Rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further to retest 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2137; (P) 1.2178; (R1) 1.2222; More

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.2026 is still extending. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2036 will resume whole decline from 1.3141 for 1.1801 support next. However, break of 1.2336 will resume the rebound from 1.2036 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2394).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top could still be a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) only. But risk of complete trend reversal is rising. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1417. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2394) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2849; (P) 1.2879; (R1) 1.2926; More….

A temporary low is in place at 1.2832 in GBP/USD with current recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation first. Upside of consolidation should be limited by 1.3043 resistance to bring another decline. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 1.2391 has completed at 1.3217 already, after rejection by 1.3174 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.2832 will extend the fall from 1.3217 to retest 1.2391 low. However, break of 1.3043 will turn focus back to 1.3217 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 1.3174 key resistance revived the original view on GBP/USD. That is, decline from 1.4376 is possibly resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Firm break of 1.2391 will solidify this bearish case and target 1.1946 (2016 low). However, decisive break of 1.3174 will invalidate this bearish case again and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4145; (P) 1.4229; (R1) 1.4287; More…

GBP/USD recovers ahead of 1.4144 minor support and intraday bias stays neutral. For now, price actions from 1.4376 are viewed as developing into a consolidation pattern, even though such pattern might take a while to complete. Further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4376 will confirm up trend resumption. In that case, GBP/USD would target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.4144 will be an early sign of medium term topping and turn focus back to 1.3965 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is in progress and resuming. It is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. We’d continue to favor this medium term bullish view as long as 1.3711 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3865; (P) 1.3892; (R1) 1.3933; More….

GBP/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Break of 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 will extend the up trend form 1.1409 to 1.4376 long tem resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.3865 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3140; (R1) 1.3179; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.3257 will bring another rise. But upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.3081 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2921 support first. However, sustained break of 1.3316 would pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.3721.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.