Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2543; (P) 1.2595; (R1) 1.2687; More…

GBP/USD’s rally from 1.1409 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.2485 from 1.2164 at 1.2829. On the downside, break of 1.2164 support will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still in progress. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3435; (P) 1.3524; (R1) 1.3598; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.4376 is seen as resuming. Sustained break of 1.3448 fibonacci level will pave the way to next one at 1.2874. On the upside, break of 1.3607 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3861) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2274; (P) 1.2372; (R1) 1.2538; More….

GBP/USD’s strong rebound and break of 1.2413 resistance suggests pull back from 1.2582 has completed at 1.2195 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2582 resistance. Break will resume the whole rise from 1.1958 and target 100% projection of 1.1958 to 1.2582 from 1.2195 at 1.2819. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1.2195 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’d remain cautious on medium term bottoming around 1.1946 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.2727) will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.1946 with another rise to 1.4376 resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.1946 will resume down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.4376 extended to as low as 1.3458 last week. The pair is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, but there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3448 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3588 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed. In that case, stronger recovery could be seen back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3746) and above before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3925) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3865; (P) 1.3892; (R1) 1.3933; More….

With 1.3865 minor support intact, further rise is expected in GBP/USD. Break of 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 will extend the up trend from 1.1409 to 1.4376 long tem resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.3865 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.2661. As upside was limited below 1.2956 support turned resistance, near term outlook stays bearish. Below 1.1798 minor support will target 1.2661 low first. Break will resume larger fall from 1.4376. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.2956 will indicate medium term bottoming. And stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3074) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4091). Current downside acceleration argues that it’s possibly resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. Retest of 1.1946 should be seen next.

In the longer term picture, outlook in GBP/USD is held bearish. Rebound from 1.1946 was rejected solidly by falling 55 month EMA. The pair was limited well below 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946, as well as the decade long falling trend line. On break of 1.1946, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2337; (P) 1.2421; (R1) 1.2583; More…

GBP/USD’s rally extends to as high as 1.2504 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2716. On the downside, below 1.2443 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 1.2185 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Strong rebound from 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will argue that current rise from 1.2036 is already the second leg. However, while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

GBP/USD’s consolidation from 1.3012 extended last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first. Such consolidation could still extend with another fall before completion. But in that case, downside should be contained above 1.2582 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3012 will resume the rise from 1.1958 to 1.3381 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.1958, ahead of 1.1946 (2016 low). At this point, rise from 1.1958 is seen as the third leg of consolidation from 1.1946. Further rise would be seen back towards 1.4376 resistance. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 1.2582 will turn focus back to 1.1946 low.

In the longer term picture, at this point, price actions from 1.1946 are seen developing into a corrective pattern. That is, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still expected to resume later. But sustained break of 1.4376 resistance will now be a strong signal of long term reversal.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3284 last week but reversed from there. Recovery from 1.2905 is likely completed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.2905 support. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1958 to 1.3514 at 1.2920 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2552. On the upside, break of 1.3284 will bring retest of 1.3514 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1958 medium term bottom is expected to extend higher to retest 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2582 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still unsure whether long term down trend form 2.1161 (2007 high) has completed at 1.1946 already. Focus is immediately on 55 month EMA (now at 1.3523) and sustained break will be the first serious sign of long term reversal. Further break of trend line resistance (now at 1.4045) will be another signal. Focus would then be turned to 1.4376 key resistance for confirmation.

GBP/USD dropped further to 1.2773 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. With 1.2958 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.2773 will resume the fall from 1.3217 to retest 1.2391 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.2958 resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3217 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 1.3174 key resistance revived the original view on GBP/USD. That is, decline from 1.4376 is possibly resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Firm break of 1.2391 will solidify this bearish case and target 1.1946 (2016 low). However, decisive break of 1.3174 will invalidate this bearish case again and turn outlook bullish.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3294; (P) 1.3382; (R1) 1.3460; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation continues. On the upside, break of 1.3624 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. However, firm break of 1.3134 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper decline towards 1.2675 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3308). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2166; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2522; More…

GBP/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 1.1958 low. On the upside, above 1.2490 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further fall will be expected as long as 1.2725 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.1946 (2016 low) are merely a consolidation pattern, with the third leg completed at 1.3514. Rejection by 55 month EMA also solidify long term bearishness. Focus is back on 1.19146 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend form 2.1161 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3514 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3451; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3569; More…

GBP/USD’s pull back from 1.3624 extends lower today, but stays above 1.3134 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3624 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. However, firm break of 1.3134 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3308). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2299; (P) 1.2375; (R1) 1.2414; More….

GBP/USD’s recovery quickly faded today and it’s still staying well inside range of 1.2247/2647. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2247 support holds. Break of 1.2647 will resume the rise from 1.1409 to 1.3200 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.2247 support will indicate completion of rebound from 1.1409. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1409 low.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1474; (P) 1.1541; (R1) 1.1588; More…

GBP/USD down trend resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Firm break of 1.1409 long term support will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.3748 to 1.1759 from 1.2292 at 1.1063 next. On the upside, however, break of 1.1608 minor resistance should now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675. This will remain the favored case for now as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

GBP/USD’s deeper than expected fall last week suggests that rebound from 1.3158 has completed at 1.3748 already. More importantly, down trend from 1.4248 is not over yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3158 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3523 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3748.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3770; (P) 1.3839; (R1) 1.3898 More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point, deeper correction would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2675 to 1.4240 at 1.3642. We’d look for some support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4016 minor resistance will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 1.4240 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) at 1.5134. On the downside, break of 1.3482 resistance turned support is needed to be first indication of completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.3272 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 1.3356 support suggests resumption of fall from 1.3748. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.3485 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3272 will target 1.3158 low. However, firm break of 1.3485 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3641 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1618; (P) 1.1665; (R1) 1.1728; More…

GBP/USD’s break of 1.1550 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.1404 has completed at 1.1737. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.1404/9 support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.1737 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 1.1404 to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1933).

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675. This will remain the favored case for now as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

GBP/USD dropped further to as low as 1.2481 last week. Break of 1.2506 support indicate resumption of whole fall from 1.3381. The pair is also kept comfortably below falling 55 day EMA, maintaining near term bearishness. Initial stays on the downside this week for 1.2391 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.2587 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2783 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don’t expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, consolidative pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) could still extend with another rising leg. But after all, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 is needed to indicate long term reversal. Otherwise, an eventual downside breakout will remain in favor.