GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2695; (P) 1.2743; (R1) 1.2797; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 1.2618, and sustained trading below 1.2678 resistance turned support will argue that it’s already in a larger correction. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.2796 will indicate that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 1.3141 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.2726) should confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075, as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). For now, rise will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2243; (P) 1.2299; (R1) 1.2387; More….

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook. Intraday bias stays on the upside as rebound from 1.1958 short term bottom targets 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.1958 at 1.2502 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2837. On the downside, break of 1.2162 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1958 support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is extending towards 1.1946 low. We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But decisive break will resume down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2494; (P) 1.2529; (R1) 1.2568; More…

GBP/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 1.2036 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2716 next. On the downside, though, below 1.2447 minor support will turn intraday bias again first, and bring lengthier consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Strong rebound from 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 argues that current rise from 1.2036 is the second leg. However, while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3027; (P) 1.3089; (R1) 1.3168; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.3381 might extend. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3541; (P) 1.3572; (R1) 1.3612; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside as rise from 1.3158 extends, despite weak upside momentum. Corrective fall from 1.4248 could have completed with three waves down to 1.3158, after hitting 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. Sustained trading above 1.3570 will pave the way to 1.3833 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.3430 will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3158 low.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. The development suggests that up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2756; (R1) 1.2772; More…

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2612 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Correction from 1.2859 should completed at 1.2612. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume rally from 1.2298. On the downside, though, below 1.2705 will dampen the immediate bullish case, and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. Break of 1.2445 support will confirm that another falling leg has started and target 1.2036 cluster support again (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Nevertheless, break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351 is ready to resume through 1.3141.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3493; (P) 1.3545; (R1) 1.3588; More

Consolidation from 1.3459 short term bottom is still in progress. Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3617 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3459 at 1.3809. On the downside, sustained break of 1.3448 fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.4376 and target next fibonacci level at 1.2874.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3861) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3841; (P) 1.3882; (R1) 1.3932; More…..

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook, with 1.4066 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected in GBP/USD for 1.3651 resistance turned support. It’s still unsure whether decline from 1.4345 is correcting rise from 1.3038, or that from 1.1946, or it’s reversing the trend. Break of 1.3651 will turn focus to key fibonacci level at 1.3429. On the upside, break of 1.4066 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4345 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279 so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2191; (P) 1.2243; (R1) 1.2303; More….

GBP/USD continues to struggle around 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias remains neutral first. Recovery from 1.2065 might extend higher. But as long as 1.2467 resistance holds, another fall is mildly in favor. We’ll holding on to the view that corrective rise from 1.1409 should have completed. On the downside, below 1.2065 will target a test on 1.1409 low. However, on the upside, break of 1.2467 will turn bias to the upside for 1.2647 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2020; (P) 1.2084; (R1) 1.2118; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.2002 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.1759 has completed, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.1759 low first. Break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.2922 will resume the rebound from 1.1759 towards 1.2666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2897).

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2888; (P) 1.2912; (R1) 1.2947; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2773 is unfolding. We’re favoring the case that correction from 1.1946 is completed at 1.3267. Below 1.2773 will target 1.2588 key near term support first. Decisive break of 1.2588 will confirm our view and target a test on 1.1946 low. Though, break of 1.3030 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3267.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3845; (P) 1.3921; (R1) 1.3984; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 1.3764/4144. On the upside, break of 1.4144 will extend the rise from 1.3764 and target a test on 1.4345 resistance. Break there will resume larger up trend and target long term trend line resistance (now at 1.5056). On the downside, below 1.3764 will extend the correction from 1.4345 to 1.3651 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2543; (P) 1.2597; (R1) 1.2642; More….

GBP/USD retreats mildly after failing break through 1.2669 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2669 will resume the rebound from 1.2251 to 1.2813 high next. On the downside, though, break of 1.2480 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.2251 support.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2604; (P) 1.2624; (R1) 1.2648; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.2641 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.2826 has completed at 1.2517, after drawing support from 1.2499. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.2826. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.2499 will argue that whole rise from 1.2036 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, would could be still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3009; (P) 1.3052; (R1) 1.3078; More….

GBP/USD is staying in tight range below 1.3109 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.3109 will target 1.3174/3217 resistance zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.2661, h: 1.2391, rs: 1.2773). That would indicate bullish reversal for 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, break of 1.2935 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.3174 resistance with current rebound. Break will indicate completion of decline from 1.4376. Rise from 1.2391 would then be seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). In that case, further rise could be seen through 1.4376 resistance. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3174 again will extend the decline from 1.4376 through 1.2391 to 1.1946 low.

GBP/USD Remains In Uptrend Above 1.3120

Key Highlights

  • The British Pound climbed to 1.3380 before correcting lower against the US Dollar.
  • A major bullish trend line is formed with support at 1.3060 on the 4-hours chart of GBP/USD.
  • The UK Rightmove House Price Index increased 0.4% in Feb 2019 (MoM), less than the last +0.7%.
  • The UK Claimant Count for Feb 2019 will be released today, which could change by 2.7K.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

After correcting lower, the British Pound found a strong support at 1.2960 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair climbed above the 1.3160 and 1.3240 resistance levels to move into a positive zone

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair even gained traction above the 1.3300 resistance level. Besides, there was a close above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours) and 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The pair traded as high as 1.3381 before starting a downside correction. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2960 low to 1.3381 high.

However, there are many supports on the downside near the 1.3170 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2960 low to 1.3381 high. The main support is near the 1.3120 level (the previous resistance area).

Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line is formed with support at 1.3060, placed along with the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). Therefore, dips in GBP/USD towards the 1.3170 or 1.3120 levels are likely to find a strong buying interest.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3300 level, followed by 1.3320. A break above the 1.3320 level could push the pair towards the 1.3380 swing high in the near term.

Overall, there could be an extended decline in GBP/USD, but the pair is likely to find support on the downside near 1.3170 or 1.3120.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Claimant Count Change Feb 2019 – Forecast 2.7K, versus 14.2K previous.
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate Jan 2019 (3M) – Forecast 4.0%, versus 4.0% previous.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index March 2019 – Forecast -11.3, versus -13.4 previous.
  • US Factory Orders Jan 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.1% previous.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3758; (P) 1.3800; (R1) 1.3882; More

GBP/USD’s break of 1.3917 resistance suggests that correction from 1.4240 has completed at 1.3668 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4000 resistance first. Firm break there will confirm and pave the way to retest 1.4240 high. On the downside, below 1.3808 minor support will turn bias to the downside to resume the correction instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 1.1409 should still continue. Decisive break of 1.4376 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) at 1.5134. However, firm break of 1.3482 support will argue that the rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 1.2675 support and below.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2377; (P) 1.2427; (R1) 1.2518; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen. But as long as 1.2587 resistance holds, further decline is in favor. Below 1.2334 temporary will will target 1.2065 support first. Firm break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.1409 at 1.2813. However, break of 1.2587 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.2813 high instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is not enough evidence for trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. However, decisive break of 1.3514 should at least confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.4376 resistance first.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1413; (R1) 1.1558; More

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.0351 resumed by breaking through 1.1494 resistance. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.0922 at 1.1628. Further break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.2065. On the downside, below 1.1256 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.0922 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is part of the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds. Parity would be the next target on resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1759 will confirm medium term bottoming, and open up stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2392).

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2654; (R1) 1.2673; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.2517/38 support zone. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.2682 will suggest that fall from 1.2892 has completed at 1.2538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2802 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.