GBP/JPY’s fall from 153.84 accelerated to as low as 147.04 last week. The development is in line with our view that corrective rise from 144.97 has completed at 153.84 already. And whole fall from 156.59 could be resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 144.97 low first. Break there will target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next. On the upside, above 148.38 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.77 (P) 163.55; (R1) 165.04; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as correction from 168.40 is extending. downside should be contained by 159.02 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 168.40 will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 159.02 will dampen this bullish case and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.57; (P) 136.00; (R1) 136.49; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 137.83 will resume the rebound from 133.03 to retest 142.71 high. On the downside, firm break of 135.05 support will suggest that rebound from 133.03 has completed. Also, in this case fall from 142.71 is resuming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 133.03, and then 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.06; (P) 151.59; (R1) 152.49; More…

GBP/JPY lost upside momentum after meeting 61.8% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 152.15. A temporary top is in place at 152.23 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Another rise is in favor as long as 148.37 minor support holds. But again, price actions from 144.97 are still seen as corrective looking. Hence, we’ll look for sign of loss of upside momentum as it approaches 156.59 high. Meanwhile, break of 148.37 will indicate completion of the rebound from 144.97 and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.03; (P) 148.55; (R1) 149.15; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 147.04 temporary low could extend. But upside should be limited below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 147.04 will target 144.97 first. Break there will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.61; (P) 140.12; (R1) 140.54; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 139.54 temporary low. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited well below 143.72 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 139.54 will resume the decline from 148.87 to 61.8% retracement of 131.51 to 148.87 at 138.14 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY was rejected by 149.98 key resistance. And medium term fall from 156.59 is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). On the other hand, decisive break of 149.98 should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Further rally would be seen back to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.01; (P) 146.55; (R1) 146.99; More…

GBP/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 144.62 so far today. The solid break of 145.82 minor support indicates completion of the rebound from 143.18. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 143.18 low. Firm break there will resume larger decline from 156.59 and target 139.25/47 cluster support level. On the upside, break of 146.46 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, deeper decline will now be in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.38; (P) 147.98; (R1) 148.44; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 148.57 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 144.84 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 148.57 will target 149.48 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 100% projection of 131.51 to 144.84 from 141.00 at 154.33 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

GBP/JPY’s choppy decline from 186.75 extended lower last week even though downside momentum has been week. Further fall is expected this week as long as 184.39 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 182.44) will argue that it’s already in a larger scale correction and target 176.29 support next. On the upside, break of 184.39 resistance will argue that the pull back from 186.75 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 185.76 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and turn outlook neutral for lengthier and deeper consolidations.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress but started lose upside momentum as seen in W MACD. Further rise will remain in favor, though, as long as 176.29 support holds, to retest 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.14; (P) 144.41; (R1) 144.77; More…

With 147.81 support intact, further rise is expected GBP/JPY. Current up trend from 133.03 should target 147.95 key medium term structural resistance. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, break of 142.81 support would now indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise of 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

GBP/JPY stayed in range above 155.33 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 155.33 low will resume the fall from 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level next. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 161.04) will turn bias to the upside, for stronger rise back to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 163.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 163.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 152.38) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.67; (P) 194.31; (R1) 195.39; More..

GBP/JPY’s up trend continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 195.86 long term resistance. Firm break there will target 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 194.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 189.97 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), and is in progress for 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high). Break there will target 61.8% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 198.89 next. Break of 189.97 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.57; (P) 143.30; (R1) 143.76; More…

GBP/JPY’s breach of 142.81 minor support argues that rebound from 139.88 has completed at 145.67. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 139.88 first. Break will target 139.29/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 144.20 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 145.67 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. Focus remains on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

GBP/JPY’s decline last week suggests short term topping at 139.73. Further fall is in favor this week as long as 136.23 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 134.32) will argue that whole rebound from 123.94 has completed. Fall from 139.73 should then target 129.27 support to confirm this bearish case. On the upside, though, above 136.23 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 139.73 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. however, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 145.32) will dampen this view and could open up further rise to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.24; (P) 147.99; (R1) 148.97; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. Break of 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone. However, break of 145.67 will suggests that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.58; (P) 148.03; (R1) 148.49; More…

GBP/JPY recovers today but stays below 149.29. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 147.04 temporary low could extend. But upside should be limited below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 147.04 will target 144.97 first. Break there will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.87; (P) 134.54; (R1) 135.02; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 136.34 minor resistance will extend the rebound from 133.50 to retest 139.73 high. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 134.40) will argue that whole rebound from 123.94 has completed. Fall from 139.73 should then target 129.27 support to confirm this bearish case.

In the bigger picture, we’re still seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. however, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

GBP/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that pull back from 152.52 has completed at 148.50, ahead of 148.09 cluster support ( 23.6% retracement of 133.03 to 152.52 at 147.92) as expected. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 152.52 high first. Break there will resume whole up trend from 123.94. Next target is 156.59 long term resistance. In case the consolidation extends with another fall, we’d continue to expect strong support from 147.92/148.09 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 143.95) is an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.23; (P) 147.73; (R1) 148.22; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective rise from 144.97 might extend. But in that case, upside should be limited by 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 146.34 minor support will suggest that the recovery has completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for 144.97 first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.30; (P) 151.00; (R1) 151.34; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective rise from 144.97 should have completed at 153.84 already. Deeper fall should be seen to 148.37 support first. Break will bring retest of 144.97 low. On the upside, above 151.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term risk will now stay on the downside as long as 153.84 holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 156.59 are viewed as a corrective pattern. For now, we’d expect at least one more fall for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 before the consolidation completed. Though, firm break of 156.59 will resume whole up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 159.11 next.