GBP/JPY’s rebound from 126.54 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 137.89. Current development argues that such rise is the third leg of a long term consolidation pattern. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 148.84 to 126.54 at 140.33. Firm break there will pave the way to 148.87 resistance next. On the downside, below 136.46 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern. That is, long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) and that from 251.09 (2007 high) are still in favor to extend through 116.83 (2011 low). We’ll hold on to this bearish view as long as 156.59 key resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.51; (P) 148.88; (R1) 149.43; More…

GBP/JPY retreats mildly ahead of 149.70 resistance. With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 142.76 support holds, further rally is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 149.70 will resume whole rise from 139.88 and target 153.84/156.59 resistance zone. On the downside, below 146.28 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 142.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 206.42. Initial bias is on the upside this week for further rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.97 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 197.18 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 116.83 to 195.86 from 122.75 at 231.96. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds, or until a clear reversal pattern forms.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.13; (P) 146.58; (R1) 146.90; More…

GBP/JPY’s rise resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 147.34 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, whole decline from 156.59 could have completed at 139.88, just ahead of 139.29/47 key support zone. Decisive break of 149.50 resistance will confirm our bullish view. On the downside, below 146.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 142.58 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, the decline from 156.69 is seen as corrective move. That is, rise from 122.36 (2016 low), is still expected to extend higher through 156.69. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.57; (P) 137.36; (R1) 138.26; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. Current downside acceleration and break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 138.46 suggests that whole corrective rise from 122.36 has completed at 148.42. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 132.31 and below. On the upside, break of 142.16 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of such decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Upside is so far limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range. At this point, we don’t expect a break of 122.36 in near term and the corrective pattern would extend for a while.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.68; (P) 149.10; (R1) 149.52; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with the current recovery. At this point, we’re still favoring the case that recovery from 146.92 has completed at 151.92. Another fall is expected and below 148.65 should send GBP/JPY through 146.92. We’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 151.92 will retest 152.82 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY’s correction from 153.39 extended last week and edged lower to 149.03. But overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 148.50 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 151.95 will argue that larger rally is ready to resume, and bring retest of 153.39 high first. However, firm break of 148.50 will bring deeper correction to channel support (now at 143.31).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 144.50) is an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.91; (P) 140.77; (R1) 141.51; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Further rise should be seen as long as 138.24 support holds, in case of retreat. Sustained break of 100% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 141.07 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 148.36.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.65; (P) 189.09; (R1) 189.57; More…..

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 187.94 will resume the decline from 191.29 to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger scale correction and target 61.8% retracement at 183.27. On the upside, though, firm break 189.69 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 191.29 high.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.51; (P) 161.13; (R1) 162.23; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 155.33 low will resume the fall form 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level next. Risk will stays on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 162.03) holds, even in case of another rally attempt.

In the bigger picture, as long as 163.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 163.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.74; (P) 147.38; (R1) 147.73; More

With 149.73 minor resistance intact, fall from 152.82 is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.57; (P) 163.84; (R1) 165.75; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 166.31 resistance will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 168.67 high. On the downside, below 163.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and would probably extend the corrective pattern from 168.67 with more sideway trading.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.23; (P) 161.62; (R1) 161.91; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. Corrective pattern from 168.67 would extend for a while. On the upside, break of 163.91 will bring stronger rise to 166.31 resistance. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

GBP/JPY’s rally from 155.33 continued last week and accelerated to as high as 171.15. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 172.11 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend and target 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. On the downside, below 167.95 support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is likely ready to resume. Next target is 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. This will now remain the favored case as long as 165.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 153.82) holds, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) could still extend higher at a later stage to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.84; (P) 138.66; (R1) 139.59; More…

GBP/JPY breached 138.53 support but quickly recovered. Current development suggests that deeper fall is underway back to 136.44 support at possibly below. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We’d expect 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 140.60 resistance will turn bias to the upside and send GBP/JPY through 144.77 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.43; (P) 147.87; (R1) 148.18; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 147.95 resistance will extend the up trend from 123.94 to 100% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 151.80 next. Nevertheless, break of 146.39 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.73; (P) 183.32; (R1) 183.95; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 186.75 would target 55 D EMA (now at 182.31). Sustained break there will argue that it’s already in a larger scale correction and target 176.29 support next. On the upside, break of 185.67 resistance will indicate that the pull back from 186.75 has completed. Further rise should then be seen through 186.75 to resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.81; (P) 157.13; (R1) 158.80; More…

GBP/JPY’s decline continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 151.84 fibonacci level will pave the way to next level at 141.19. On the upside, above 155.61 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) has completed at 169.10. 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 is already met, and there could be some support from there for rebound. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 169.10 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 151.84 will target 61.8% retracement at 141.19.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.39; (P) 162.12; (R1) 162.59; More…

Range trading continues as consolidation pattern from 168.67 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 163.91 will bring stronger rise to 166.31 resistance. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.03; (P) 186.77; (R1) 187.35; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. Price actions from 188.63 short term top is seen as a near term consolidation pattern for now. As long as 184.44 support holds, further rally is expected. Decisive break of 188.63 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 184.44 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). However, firm break of 184.44 will now argue that a medium term top is formed, possibly in bearish divergence condition in D MACD, and bring deeper fall back to 178.02 support.