Last week’s recovery suggests that GBP/JPY’s correction from 172.11 has completed at 163.20, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 172.11 at 163.25. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 172.11 high first. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 172.11 at 163.25 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 157.78 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) could still resume through 172.11 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 159.71 support will argue that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 123.94, and deeper decline would be seen back towards 148.93 support.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.88) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.39; (P) 149.88; (R1) 150.39; More…

GBP/JPY’s upside momentum is diminishing mildly as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is expected. as long as 147.38 support holds. Current up trend from 123.94 should target 100% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 151.80 next. On the downside, however, break of 147.38 support should now indicate short term topping. Deeper correction would seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 144.42).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). With 147.95 resistance taken out, further rally would now be seen to 156.59 resistance (2018 high), Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.80; (P) 142.55; (R1) 143.08; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 139.31/77 (38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 144.36 will bring retest of 147.95 resistance. However, sustained break of 139.77 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 134.71.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.10; (P) 151.34; (R1) 151.66; More…

GBP/JPY break of 151.95 resistance suggests that correction from 153.39 has completed with three waves down to 149.03 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 153.39 high next. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 150.98 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.47; (P) 150.70; (R1) 151.11; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in correction from 152.52 short term top. Deeper fall could be seen to 148.09 cluster support ( 23.6% retracement of 133.03 to 152.52 at 147.92). But downside should be contained there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, for now, risk will stay mildly on the downside for more pull back as long as 152.52 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.77; (P) 161.75; (R1) 163.41; More…

Overall, GBP/JPY is still extending the corrective pattern from 168.67. Intraday bias is back on the upside with break of 162.77 minor resistance. Further rise is in favor to 163.91 first. Break there will target 166.31 resistance next. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.93; (P) 161.35; (R1) 161.97; More…

GBP/JPY’s breach of 163.32 resistance argues that pull back from 165.99 has completed at 158.24. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 165.99. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 160.71 will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.54; (P) 182.40; (R1) 183.03; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point, but outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 183.99 should have completed with three waves down to 176.29. Above 183.23 will target 183.99 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.85 will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective pattern from 183.99 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue through 183.99 at a later stage, towards 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

Much volatility was seen in GBP/JPY, as it reversed after failing to break through 184.44 support turned resistance, and then dived to 178.32, then recovered again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Deeper decline is expected as long as 184.30 resistance holds. Break of 178.32 will resume the whole fall from 188.63. Sustained break of 178.02 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 188.63 at 173.46.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 188.63 medium term top are currently seen as a correction to the up trend from 148.93 (2022 low) only. As long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in favor to resume through 188.63 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress but started losing upside momentum as seen in W MACD. Further rise will remain in favor, though, as long as 172.11 support holds, to retest 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.84; (P) 141.28; (R1) 141.63; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. Further rise is expected as long as 139.31 support holds. Current rally from 126.54 should target trend line resistance (now at 143.52) next. Sustained break will pave the way to 148.87 key resistance next. Though, break of 139.31 support will indicate near term reversal and bring deeper fall back to 135.74 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 126.54 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Further rally could be seen but for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 156.59 to limit upside. On the downside, sustained break of 135.74 resistance turned support will suggest that such rebound has completed. Deeper decline could the be seen to retest 126.54 low.

GBP/JPY’s break of 189.69 minor resistance suggests that correction from 191.29 has completed at 187.94 already. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 191.29 high first. Decisive break there will bring larger up trend resumption. On the downside, break of 187.94 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rally will remain in favor as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds. Break of 195.86 (2015 high) is possible. But strong resistance could be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

GBP/JPY rebounded further to 165.69 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While further rise could be seen, strong resistance might be seen from 169.10 high to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 159.41 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 148.93 again. However, firm break of 169.10 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, strong support from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 suggests that price actions from 169.10 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) should resume at a later stage. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.00) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA will ague that whole rise has completed, and open up deeper fall back to 116.83/122.75 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.29; (P) 190.69; (R1) 191.06; More…..

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and range trading continues. Corrective pattern from 191.29 could still extend. Break of 188.02 minor support will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33, as a correction to rise from 178.32. Nevertheless, on the upside, decisive break of 191.29 will resume larger up trend, and target 195.86 long term resistance next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.38; (P) 152.10; (R1) 152.57; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Correction from 156.05 could still extend lower. Break of 150.64 will target 149.03 cluster support level. On the upside, break of 153.46 will turn bias back to the upside for 155.13/156.05 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.51; (P) 135.88; (R1) 136.28; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and sideway range trading continues. As long as 137.83 resistance holds, further decline is in favor. Below 134.40 will target 133.03 support first. Break there will resume larger fall from 142.71 to 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.60; (P) 131.21; (R1) 131.77; More…

With 132.24 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected in GBP/JPY for retesting 126.54 low. However, break of 132.24 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 135.74 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will target 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.62; (P) 135.28; (R1) 135.92; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point, for 133.03 support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 142.71. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11. On the upside, 136.55 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.83 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.92; (P) 160.15; (R1) 161.25; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 164.61 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook stays bullish with 158.04 resistance turned support intact, and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 164.61 will resume larger up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, firm break of 158.19 will turn bias to the downside and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.84; (P) 144.37; (R1) 144.73; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral as it continued to lose downside momentum. As long as 145.99 resistance holds, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 144.02 will target 142.76 support first. Sustained break there will bring retest of 139.39/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 145.99 support turned resistance could bring stronger rebound. But near tem outlook will be neutral at best as long as 149.70 key resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.95; (P) 163.74; (R1) 164.60; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 165.99. Further rally is still expected as long as 161.18 support holds. As noted before, corrective fall from 172.11 should have completed at 155.33 already. Break of 165.99 will target 169.26 resistance first, and then 172.11 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.