Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.58; (P) 139.33; (R1) 140.59; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall accelerates to as low as 137.44 so far today. 139.29 key support is firmly taken out with no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 135.43 long term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 140.93 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, firm break of 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) confirms completion of up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) at 156.59. Outlook is now turned bearish for 61.8% retracement at 135.43 first. Sustained break will pave the way back to 122.36 low.

GBP/JPY’s correction from 153.39 extended last week and edged lower to 149.03. But overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 148.50 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 151.95 will argue that larger rally is ready to resume, and bring retest of 153.39 high first. However, firm break of 148.50 will bring deeper correction to channel support (now at 143.31).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 144.50) is an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.21; (P) 136.61; (R1) 137.30; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound form 133.03 is still in progress and would target at test on 142.71 high. On the downside, though, break of 135.05 will likely resume the fall from 142.71 through 133.03 to 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.99; (P) 173.48; (R1) 174.02; More…

Further rally is expected in GBP/JPY as long as 171.26 support holds. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. Nevertheless, break of 171.26 minor support will delay the bullish case, and turn bias to the downside for deeper retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.33 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.95; (P) 137.27; (R1) 137.57; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in range of 135.38/137.83 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 137.83 will resume the rebound from 133.03 to retest 142.71 high. On the downside, firm break of 135.36 support will suggest that rebound from 133.03 has completed. Also, in this case fall from 142.71 is resuming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 133.03, and then 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.96; (P) 153.73; (R1) 154.54; More…

In temporary low is formed at 152.88 as GBP/JPY lost downside momentum. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 157.74 is seen as the third leg of the consolidative pattern from 158.19. Deeper decline is expected as long as 155.38 minor resistance holds. Below 152.88 will target 148.94 support next. On the upside, above 155.38 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 157.74/158.19 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are currently seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.54; (P) 187.41; (R1) 188.84; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 161.8% projection of 178.02 to 183.79 from 180.74 at 190.07. On the downside, below 187.26 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, as long as 178.02 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 183.79 resistance turned support holds, in case of deep pullback.

GBP/JPY continued to gyrate in range of 143./72/148.87 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral for more consolidation first. Further rise remains in favor as long as 143.72 support holds. Decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish in implications and target 156.58 resistance next. However, on the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 122.36 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) doesn’t display a clear impulsive structure. Thus, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 131.51 support will bring 122.26 low back into focus.

Range trading continued in GBP/JPY last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 164.02 should resume the whole fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 168.99 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 172.11 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.90) will argue that it’s already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.94) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.41; (P) 135.73; (R1) 135.97; More…

Breach of 135.17 suggests fall resumption in GBP/JPY. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 131.51 low next. On the upside, above 136.28 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 137.78 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

GBP/JPY’s decline accelerated to as low as 129.07 last week. The break of 131.51 support confirmed resumption of whole decline form 156.69. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 122.36 low as next target. We’d be cautious on bottoming around there. On the upside, above 131.61 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited below 135.66 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.36 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

In the longer term picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern that could extend with another rebound. Hence, strong support could be seen at 122.36 to bring rebound. However, sustained break will raise the chance of resuming larger down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Next downside target will be 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.36 from 156.59 at 111.16.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.04; (P) 143.37; (R1) 143.61; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 144.07 continues. Further rise is expected with 142.16 support intact. Break of 144.07 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 144.62 first. Break will target 147.95 medium term structural resistance. On the downside, below 142.16 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for pull back towards channel support (now at 139.13).

In the bigger picture, rise of 123.94 is still as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.77; (P) 174.22; (R1) 174.71; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Current rally should target 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. On the downside, break of 172.50 support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 165.99 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.09; (P) 162.84; (R1) 163.29; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top formed at 163.73. The favored case is still that correction from 172.11 has completed with three waves down to 155.33. Above 163.73 would resume the rebound from1 55.33 to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. However, break of 160.44 minor support will dampen this case and bring retest of 155.33 low instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.51; (P) 140.02; (R1) 140.55; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation from 141.50. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.58; (P) 132.83; (R1) 133.74; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside. Corrective rebound from 123.94 should have completed at 135.74. Deeper fall would be seen to retest this low. On the upside, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.50; (P) 129.06; (R1) 129.86; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point and consolidation from 126.54 might extend. But outlook remains bearish with 130.06 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 126.54 will extend larger down trend to 122.36 low. However, break of 130.06 will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 133.58).

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.36 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.95; (P) 146.43; (R1) 147.20; More….

Upside momentum in GBP/JPY is weak with 4 hour MACD staying below signal line. But with 145.13 minor support intact, further rise is expected to 148.09/42 resistance. Decisive break there will extend whole rally from 122.36 to long term fibonacci level at 150.43 next. On the downside, below 145.13 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation again before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we’d be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.76; (P) 162.44; (R1) 163.66; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. The favored case is that correction from 172.11 has completed at 155.33 already. Above 163.73 will resume the rise from 155.33 to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. However, break of 160.44 minor support will dampen this case and bring retest of 155.33 low instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

GBP/JPY’s pull back from 148.09 extended to 143.34 last week. But the cross drew support from 38.2% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 143.31 and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 145.78 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 148.09 first. Meanwhile, break of 143.34 will extend the pull back from 148.09 to 61.8% retracement at 140.35. Overall, we’d still expect the rise from 122.36 to resume after pull back from 148.09 completes. Break of 148.09 will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

In the longer term picture, based on the impulsive structure of the decline from 195.86 to 122.36, such fall should not be completed yet. But we will now pay close attention to the structure of the rise from 122.36 to determine whether it’s a corrective move, or an impulsive move. That would decide whether a break of 116.83 low would be seen.