GBP/JPY edged lower to 146.92 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Another decline is expected with 149.73 resistance intact. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 155.14). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, firm break of 139.29 will suggests that the long term down trend is still in progress and could break 116.83 low ahead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.88; (P) 145.58; (R1) 146.46; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 144.37 will target 143.18 first. Break will resume larger decline from 156.59 and target 139.25/47 cluster support level. However, break of 148.10 will resume the rebound from 143.18 and that will also be the first sign of near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.20; (P) 141.96; (R1) 142.58; More…

A temporary top is formed at 142.71 with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidation. But further rise is expected as long as 138.24 support holds. Break of 142.71 will target 161.8% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 148.36.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.93; (R1) 147.27; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 148.75 will resume rebound from 131.51 and target 149.48 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 143.72 will resume the pull back from 148.57 to 141.00 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above. However, firm break of 141.00 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 131.51 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 179.09; (P) 180.32; (R1) 181.14; More…

GBP/JPY recovered after falling to 179.45 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall remains in favor, and break of 179.45 will target 55 D EMA (now at 176.65). On the upside, above 182.00 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 183.99 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, uptrend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.63; (P) 187.94; (R1) 188.57; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 188.63 will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 38.2% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 191.04. On the downside, below 1187.01 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 184.15 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

GBP/JPY’s correction from 153.39 extended last week and edged lower to 149.03. But overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 148.50 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 151.95 will argue that larger rally is ready to resume, and bring retest of 153.39 high first. However, firm break of 148.50 will bring deeper correction to channel support (now at 143.31).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 144.50) is an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

GBP/JPY’s strong rebound from 150.95 accelerated further higher last week. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 158.19 has completed with three waves to 150.95 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 158.04/19 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 155.43 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) should still be in progress, and notable support from 5 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.94 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 147.27) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.87; (P) 189.48; (R1) 190.50; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 178.71 to 188.90 from 185.21 at 191.50. On the downside, below 187.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 185.21 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.67; (P) 135.17; (R1) 135.73; More…

GBP/JPY fails to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07 despite another rally attempt. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 132.17 support will suggest rejection by 135.07 and turned bias back to the downside for retesting 126.54 low. On the upside, however, sustained break of 135.07 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 140.33 next.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will extend 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.82; (P) 133.19; (R1) 135.65; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 135.74 resistance. Break there will resume whole rebound from 126.54 and target 61.8% retracement of 148.84 to 126.54 at 140.33. On the downside, break of 130.42 will resume the fall to retest 126.54 low.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will target 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.73; (P) 167.35; (R1) 168.21; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rise should continue to 169.26 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 172.11 high. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 165.38 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.13; (P) 161.29; (R1) 163.44; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 159.42 support is taken as a early sign of bearish trend reversal. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 155.57 support first. Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case. On the upside, above 162.28 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. However, firm break of 155.57 will confirm medium term topping, after rejection by 167.93. Outlook will be turned bearish for deeper decline.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.80 (P) 146.34; (R1) 146.83; More…

GBP/JPY breached 146.63 minor resistance but there was no follow through buying. Momentum is also weak as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 148.10 resistance will be a strong signal of near term reversal. Further rally would be seen to 149.99 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 148.13 will extend the fall from 156.59 for 139.25/47 cluster support level.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.77; (P) 142.15; (R1) 142.44; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in range below 144.84 and intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, rebound from 131.51 might still extend. But we’d expect strong resistance from trend line (now at 146.93) to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 140.62 will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.38 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.74; (P) 149.20; (R1) 149.59; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Corrective recovery from 147.04 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 148.16 will turn bias to the downside for 147.04 and then 144.97. Decisive break of 144.97 will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.85; (P) 129.26; (R1) 129.63; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 126.54 extends higher and break of 130.06 suggests short term bottoming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 133.28). Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07 to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 128.75 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 126.54 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.36 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.61; (P) 149.69; (R1) 150.39; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remain son the downside. Focus stays on 100% projection of 158.19 to 152.35 from 154.70 at 148.86, which is close to 148.93 key structural support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 161.8% projection at 145.25 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 152.35 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support, and bearish divergence condition in week MACD are raising the chance of medium term topping at 158.19. Firm break of 148.93 support will argue that GBP/JPY is at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 148.93 will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 158.19 at a later stage.

GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and met 61.8% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 144.62. There is no sign of topping yet and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 147.95 medium term structural resistance. On the downside, however, break of 142.81 support would now indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise of 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) is still seen as a sideway pattern for now. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.73) will carry long term bullish implications. But still, firm break of 156.59 resistance is needed to confirm the start of an up trend. Otherwise, overall outlook will be neutral at best first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.88; (P) 150.24; (R1) 150.71; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 148.50 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 153.39 will resume the whole rise from 123.94 to 156.59 long term resistance next. However, firm break of 148.50 will bring deeper correction to channel support (now at 142.87).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Next target is 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.