GBP/JPY had another attempt on 138.53 support last week but recovered from there again. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 148.42 are forming a consolidation pattern. And there is no clear sign of completion yet.

Initial bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 138.53 support would trigger downside acceleration to 136.44 support and possibly below. We’d expect strong support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 142.79 resistance will turn bias to the upside and send GBP/JPY through 144.77 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we’d expect another fall through 116.83 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.92; (P) 200.38; (R1)200.70; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Break of 199.00 support will suggest short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, might have completed too. Deeper fall should then be seen to 197.07 resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 185.01) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.79; (P) 144.12; (R1) 144.42; More…

GBP/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 142.71 so far today. The firm break of 143.18 confirms resumption of larger decline from 156.59. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 139.29/47 key support level. On the upside, above 143.80 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited by 145.25 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 156.59 is seen as a corrective move. In case of deeper fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 will confirm medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 122.36 (2016 low) again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.50; (P) 139.08; (R1) 139.46; More…

GBP/JPY is losing downside momentum ahead of 61.8% retracement of 131.51 to 148.87 at 138.14. But recovery is so far weak. And, with 141.73 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, sustained break of 138.14 will extend the fall from 148.87 top retest 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY was rejected by 149.98 key resistance. And medium term fall from 156.59 is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). On the other hand, decisive break of 149.98 should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Further rally would be seen back to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.25; (P) 159.24; (R1) 161.22; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Up trend form 123.94 has just resumed. Next target is 61.8% projection of 136.96 to 158.19 from 150.95 at 164.07. On the downside, below 159.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) should still be in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.94 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.41; (P) 186.04; (R1) 187.18; More…

Prior breach of 186.45 indicates that GBP/JPY is resuming the larger up trend. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 158.24 to 183.99 from 176.29 at 192.20. On the downside, however, break of 184.53 support should now indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.97; (P) 144.37; (R1) 144.76; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. As noted before, corrective fall from 148.42 has completed at 136.44 already. Break of 145.38 resistance will target a test on 148.42 high. Break there will resume whole rise from 122.46 and target 150.42 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 140.74 will turn bias to the downside to extend the pattern from 148.42 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern even. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Though, sustained break will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

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GBP/JPY’s break of 141.17 support last week confirmed resumption of fall from 149.48. Intraday bias remains on the downside at this point. Current fall should target 139.29/47 key support zone. On the upside, break of 143.94 resistance is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 204.94; (P) 205.37; (R1) 205.94; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 203.82 temporary low. Corrective fall from 208.09 short term top could still extend lower. Break of 203.82 would target 38.2% retracement of 191.34 to 208.09 at 201.69. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 206.35 minor resistance will turn intraday bias will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 208.09. However, sustained break of 201.69 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 200.72 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/JPY stayed in established range of 140.43/77 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern with first leg completed at 136.44. Break of 140.43 will argue that the second leg is finished too. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 136.44 and below. Meanwhile, break of 144.77 will target a test on 148.42 high next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we’d expect another fall through 116.83 low.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.22; (P) 199.64; (R1) 200.33; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in range below 200.72 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 197.28 will strengthen the case that rise from 191.34 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 195.02 support first. However, decisive break of 200.72 will resume larger uptrend instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 188.63 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend is expected to continue. Sustained trading above 200.53 will pave the way to 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.24; (P) 185.80; (R1) 186.90; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should extend to 61.8% projection of 158.24 to 183.99 from 176.29 at 192.20. On the downside, below 184.67 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

GBP/JPY rose further to 157.74 last week but retreated ahead of 158.19 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Further rise is expected as long as 154.86 support holds. Decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 147.06) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.77; (P) 154.30; (R1) 154.91; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. As noted before, corrective pattern from 156.05 should have completed after defending 149.03 key support. Further rise would be seen to retest 156.05 high. On the downside, below 153.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59 (2018 high). Fall from 156.05 would at least be correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.13; (P) 145.26; (R1) 146.39; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 156.58 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 143.72 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 141.00 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above. However, firm break of 141.00 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 131.51 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.40; (P) 153.43; (R1) 154.32; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further fall is mildly in favor and break of 152.35 will resume the decline from 158.19 to 148.93 key support next. On the upside, however, break of 154.70 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Further rally is still expected as long as 148.93 support holds. However, firm break of 148.93 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and bring deeper fall back to 142.71 resistance turned support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.59; (P) 137.96; (R1) 138.43; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 136.55 is extending. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 146.50 to 136.55 at 140.35 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 136.55 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 148.87 to 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.38; (P) 146.75; (R1) 147.45; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 143.18 extended higher and break of 147.04 support turned resistance suggests that fall from 153.84 has completed at 143.18 already. Intraday bias is on the upside for 149.99 resistance first. Break will target 153.84 key near term resistance next. On the downside, break of 145.82 minor support will argue that the rebound is completed and bring retest of 143.18 low.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 126.54 extended higher last week and breached 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first. Further rise could be seen to 61.8% retracement at 140.33 next. On the downside, break of 132.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 126.54 low instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will extend 116.83 (2011 low).

In the longer term picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. Hence, strong support could be seen at 122.36 to bring rebound before the pattern completes. However, sustained break will raise the chance of resuming long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Next downside target will be 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.36 from 156.59 at 111.16.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.85; (P) 144.48; (R1) 145.34; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral as it drew support from 38.2% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 143.31 and recovers. Overall, we’d still expect the rise from 122.36 to resume after pull back from 148.09 completes. Above 145.78 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 148.09. Break there will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level. Nonetheless, break of 143.34 will extend the pull back to 61.8% retracement at 140.35.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.