Outlook in GBP/JPY is unchanged as the cross extended the sideway consolidation pattern from 149.70 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While deeper pull back cannot be ruled out, further rally is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.97) mixed the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.80; (P) 155.27; (R1) 155.91; More…

GBP/JPY rises to as high as 155.98 so far today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Decisive break of 156.05/59 key resistance zone will carry larger bullish implications. Medium term up trend from 123.94 should then target 61.8% projection of 136.96 to 156.05 from 148.93 at 160.72. On the downside, below 154.93 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), which is still in progress. Sustained break of 156.59 (2018 high) would affirm the case of long term bullish reversal, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93 next. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 148.93 structural support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.56; (P) 163.84; (R1) 165.44; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside as fall from 168.67 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 161.63) will bring deeper decline to 155.57 support. On the upside, above 165.14 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 168.67 again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

GBP/JPY edged lower to 136.55 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 146.50 to 136.55 at 140.35 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 136.55 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 148.87 to 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, firstly, GBP/JPY’s is kept well below 55 week EMA, keeping outlook bearish. But we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect range trading to continue longer. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. However, break of 122.26 will put 116.83 (2011 low) back into focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.27; (P) 139.56; (R1) 140.13; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral as it losses momentum ahead of 140.31 resistance. On the upside, break of 140.31 will resume the rebound from 133.03 for retesting 142.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 137.19 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 134.40 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.90; (P) 141.72; (R1) 142.15; More…

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 140.21 so far. Break of 140.92 confirms resumption of correction form 147.95. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 139.31 key support next. On the upside, above 141.41 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 144.95 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.18; (P) 147.74; (R1) 148.54; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 149.70 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. Break of 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone. However, break of 145.67 will suggests that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.79; (P) 143.09; (R1) 143.59; More…

GBP/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 144.20 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 145.67 has completed at 142.58 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 145.67 first. Break will resume the rebound from 139.88 to 38.2% retracement of 156.59 to 139.88 at 146.26. Decisive break there will be a strong signal that fall from 156.59 has completed at 139.88, ahead of 139.29/47 key support zone. Further rally should then be seen to 149.30 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 142.58 will turn focus back to 139.88 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. Focus remains on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.67; (P) 149.40; (R1) 149.79; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall from 153.84 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 148.47 support. Current decline is seen as as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 156.59. Break of 148.37 will pave the way to 144.97 and below. On the upside, above 150.60 resistance turned support, however, will argue that fall from 153.84 might be finished. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 152.71 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 156.59 are viewed as a corrective pattern. For now, we’d expect at least one more fall for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 before the consolidation completed. Though, firm break of 156.59 will resume whole up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 159.11 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.36; (P) 140.18; (R1) 140.76; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 138.24 support confirms short term topping at 132.71. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 135.53. Reactions from there would decide whether whole rise from 123.94 has completed. On the upside, above 140.07 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.42; (P) 136.77; (R1) 137.05; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 135.38 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 138.32 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 135.38 will extend recent fall from 148.87 to retest 131.51 low. Though, firm break of 135.38 will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 140.11).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.75; (P) 130.10; (R1) 132.26; More…

GBP/JPY’s corrective rise from 123.94 is still in progress and stronger rebound could be seen. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 127.33 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 123.94 low first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.33; (P) 184.99; (R1) 185.51; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and further rally is in favor as long as 182.73 minor support holds. Corrective pull back from 188.63 should have completed. Above 186.14 will resume the rebound from 178.32 to retest 188.63.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 188.63 medium term top are seen as a correction to the up trend from 148.93 (2022 low) only. As long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in favor to resume through 188.63 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.84; (P) 167.78; (R1) 168.87; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 168.67 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained above 162.88 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 168.67 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 150.95 to 168.40 from 155.57 at 173.02.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.72; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.78; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. We’d expect strong resistance from 147.04 support turned resistance to complete the corrective rebound from 143.18. On the downside, below 144.52 minor support will bring retest of 143.18 first. Break will resume the decline from 153.84.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

GBP/JPY rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 140.70 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 140.70 will resume the choppy rebound from 133.03 for retesting 141.71 high. On the downside, though, break of 136.78 will turn bias to the downside for 134.40 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.38) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.64; (P) 146.23; (R1) 146.64; More…

GBP/JPY’s retreat from 147.95 extends lower today but intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside is still expected to be contained above 142.47 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 147.95 will target 148.87 structural resistance first. Break will target 156.59 key resistance next. However, break of 142.47 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 139.31 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. Rejection from there will extend long term range trading. Decisive break of 156.69 will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.77; (P) 161.19; (R1) 162.41; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall from 168.40 is still in progress and could extend to 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61. Strong support is expected there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 163.57 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 168.40 high. However, firm break of 157.61 will bring deeper fall to 150.96 structural support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

GBP/JPY’s corrective fall from 156.05 resumed to 150.64 last week, but rebounded strongly since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another fall, through 150.64 support, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 136.96 to 156.05 at 148.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 153.14 minor resistance will argue that the corrective fall has completed, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Stronger rise would then be seen back to 155.13/156.05 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.84; (P) 182.03; (R1) 182.96; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as intraday bias stays mildly on the downside. Fall from 183.99 short term top would target 179.90 support. Firm break there will target 55 D EMA (now at 176.39). On the upside, break of 183.99 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, uptrend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.