GBP/JPY’s sharp decline suggests that it’s already in correction to rise from 136.96 to 156.05. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 136.96 to 156.05 at 148.75. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 153.75 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus is now on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.27; (P) 131.47; (R1) 132.11; More…

GBP/JPY recovers today but with 133.17 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. Corrective rebound from 123.94 should have completed. Deeper fall is in favor to retest 123.94 low. On the upside, above 133.17 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

GBP/JPY edged lower to 133.03 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Further decline is expected as long as 136.46 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 133.03 will resume the fall from 142.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11 next. However, firm break of 136.46 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 144.42) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.07; (P) 131.60; (R1) 131.93; More…

With 129.91 minor support intact, corrective rebound from 126.54 short term bottom could extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07. On the downside, below 129.91 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 126.54.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.75 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 206.42. Initial bias is on the upside this week for further rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.97 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 197.18 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 116.83 to 195.86 from 122.75 at 231.96. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds, or until a clear reversal pattern forms.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.67; (P) 159.35; (R1) 160.69; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in corrective pattern from 168.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 155.57 will extend the correction towards 150.96 key structural support. Nevertheless, on the upside, firm break of 162.16 will indicate that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 168.40 high next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back. However, firm break of 150.95 will indicate rejection by 167.93, and bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.55; (P) 183.89; (R1) 184.38; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 183.99 will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 158.24 to 183.99 from 176.29 at 192.20. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.41 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.39; (P) 145.90; (R1) 146.50; More…

As noted before, GBP/JPY’s break of 145.67 resistance turned support suggests that whole rise from 139.88 has completed at 149.70 already. Intraday bias is staying on the downside for 142.59 support first. Break will target 139.88 low next. On the upside, break of 147.57 resistance is needed to indicate completion of fall from 149.70. Otherwise, near term outlook will now stay mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.23; (P) 146.93; (R1) 147.64; More…

GBP/JPY retreated sharply ahead of 148.10 resistance. But downside is contained well above 145.17 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 145.17 will confirm completion of rebound from 143.76. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 143.17 low. Break will resume the fall from 156.59. Meanwhile, break of 1481.0 will be a strong signal of near term reversal. Further rally would be seen to 149.99 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.23; (P) 138.24; (R1) 141.20; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 140.70 suggests resumption of whole choppy rise from 133.03. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 141.71 high. For now, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 136.96 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

GBP/JPY’s rise last week indicates that pull back from 188.90 has completed at 185.21 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 178.71 to 188.90 from 185.21 at 191.50. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 185.21 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rally will remain in favor as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds. Break of 195.86 (2015 high) is possible. But strong resistance could be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80 to limit upside.

GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 176.29 but rebounded strong well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 155.33 to 183.99 at 173.04. The development argues that price actions from 183.99 high are merely correcting the rise from 155.33. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 182.51 resistance should bring further rise through 183.99 to resume larger up trend. Meanwhile, outlook will now stay bullish as long as 173.04 holds, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue through 183.99 at a later stage, towards 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress to retest 195.86 (2015 high). Based on current momentum, break of 195.86 is in favor. But strong resistance could still be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 (2011 low) at 199.80 to limit upside on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.63; (P) 148.19; (R1) 149.02; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues below 149.70. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay remain bullish as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and break of channel resistance suggests upside acceleration. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Rise form 123.94 should now target 147.95 structural resistance. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 144.47 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) is still seen as a sideway pattern for now. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.73) will carry long term bullish implications. But still, firm break of 156.59 resistance is needed to confirm the start of an up trend. Otherwise, overall outlook will be neutral at best first.

GBP/JPY rebounded further to 145.67 last week but formed a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 142.81 minor support holds, another rise is mildly in favor. Above 145.67 will target trend line resistance (now at 146.99). Firm break there will be a signal of bullish reversal and should target 149.30 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 142.81 will argue that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 139.29/47 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. Focus remains on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.97) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.81; (P) 182.72; (R1) 183.41; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 183.99 short term top would target 179.90 support. Firm break there will target 55 D EMA (now at 176.22). On the upside, break of 183.99 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, uptrend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

GBP/JPY’s decline from 139.73 short term top extended to as low as 131.93 last week. Current development suggests that corrective rebound from 123.94 has completed with three waves up to 139.73. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 129.27 support. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case and pave the way to retest 123.94 low. On the upside, break of 136.34 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline is expected in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 145.07) will dampen this view and could open up further rise to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.09; (R1) 146.34; More…

GBP/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 148.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading could be seen. For now, further rise remains in favor as long as 143.72 support holds. Decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish in implications and target 156.58 resistance next. However, on the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

GBP/JPY’s rally from 131 51 accelerated to as high as 148.57 last week before forming a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 144.84 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 148.57 will target 149.48 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 100% projection of 131.51 to 144.84 from 141.00 at 154.33 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 122.36 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) doesn’t display a clear impulsive structure. Thus, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 131.51 support will bring 122.26 low back into focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.42; (P) 140.98; (R1) 141.90; More…

GBP/JPY’s recent rally resumes and hits as high as 141.85 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Rise from 126.54 should target trend line resistance (now at 143.80) next. Sustained break will pave the way to 148.87 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 139.31 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, sustained break of 135.74 will suggest that such rebound has completed. Deeper decline could the be seen to retest 126.54 low.