Range trading continued in GBP/JPY last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 164.02 should resume the whole fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 168.99 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 172.11 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.90) will argue that it’s already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.94) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.13; (P) 171.82; (R1) 172.39; More…

Further rise is in favor in GBP/JPY for the momentum. Current rally is part of the larger up trend and should target 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. Nevertheless, firm break of 167.82 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 165.40 support and possible below instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 172.11 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break there will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. Nevertheless, firm break of 165.40 support will indicate rejection by 172.11 and extend the corrective pattern from there with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.08; (P) 194.48; (R1) 195.11; More..

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. This rebound is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen back to 197.40 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 193.82 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.34) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.81; (P) 143.15; (R1) 143.41; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 139.31/77 (38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 144.36 will bring retest of 147.95 resistance. However, sustained break of 139.77 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 134.71.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.36; (P) 142.79; (R1) 143.27; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 147.95 is extending. On the downside, break of 140.92 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. On the upside, above 144.60 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 147.95 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

GBP/JPY gyrated lower last week with very weak momentum. Overall near term outlook is unchanged though. That is, price actions from 152.82 are developing to a corrective pattern. Deeper fall is expected this week for 146.92 support and below. We’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.98 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 151.92/152.82 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.78). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, firm break of 139.29 will suggests that the long term down trend is still in progress and could break 116.83 low ahead.

GBP/JPY’s fall from 153.84 accelerated to as low as 147.04 last week. The development is in line with our view that corrective rise from 144.97 has completed at 153.84 already. And whole fall from 156.59 could be resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 144.97 low first. Break there will target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next. On the upside, above 148.38 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

GBP/JPY edged higher to 172.11 last week but retreated sharply since then. But downside is so far supported by 164.95 support. Initial bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 172.11 will resume larger up trend. However, break of 164.95 will bring deeper pull back to 159.71 support and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), as part of the trend from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress. Further rise would be seen to 161.8% projection of 122.75 to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.88) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.26; (P) 163.46; (R1) 163.81; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is still expected as long as 161.18 support holds. As noted before, corrective fall from 172.11 should have completed at 155.33 already. Break of 165.99 will target 169.26 resistance first, and then 172.11 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

GBP/JPY turned into consolidation below 156.05 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some sideway trading. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 153.81 support holds. Break of 156.05 will resume larger up trend for 61.8% projection of 133.03 to 153.39 from 149.03 at 161.61. On the downside, firm break of 153.81 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus is now on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.15; (P) 143.54; (R1) 144.22; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 144.02 support turned resistance holds, another decline remains mildly in favor. Below 141.17 will target 139.29/47 key support zone. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break of 144.02 will suggest near term reversal. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 145.18) and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.64; (P) 187.32; (R1) 187.82; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is now on the downside with break of 55 4H EMA. Deeper decline is underway to 183.79 resistance turned support. Rebound from there would retain near term bullishness for another rise through 188.26 later. However, firm break of 183.79 will indicate that larger correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, as long as 178.02 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 183.79 resistance turned support holds, in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.59; (P) 150.95; (R1) 151.62; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 148.93 key structural support will carry larger bearish implications. Next target is 161.8% projection of 158.19 to 152.35 from 154.70 at 145.25. On the upside, however, break of 152.35 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back from 158.19 is complete. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support, and bearish divergence condition in week MACD are raising the chance of medium term topping at 158.19. Firm break of 148.93 support will argue that GBP/JPY is at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 148.93 will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 158.19 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.31; (P) 153.68; (R1) 154.23; More…

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range of 152.35/154.70 and Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further fall is mildly in favor and break of 152.35 will resume the decline from 158.19 to 148.93 key support next. On the upside, however, break of 154.70 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Further rally is still expected as long as 148.93 support holds. However, firm break of 148.93 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and bring deeper fall back to 142.71 resistance turned support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.39; (P) 162.12; (R1) 162.59; More…

Range trading continues as consolidation pattern from 168.67 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 163.91 will bring stronger rise to 166.31 resistance. On the downside, below 160.07 will turn bias to the downside for 159.42 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.88; (P) 189.17; (R1) 189.44; More…

GBP/JPY is still extending range trading below 190.05 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 187.83 minor support intact. Break of 190.05 will target 61.8% projection of 178.71 to 188.90 from 185.21 at 191.50. However, break of 187.83 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction back to 185.21 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.28; (P) 141.19; (R1) 141.80; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 141.17 confirms resumption of fall from 149.48. Intraday bias is back on the downside. current fall should now target 139.29/47 key support zone. On the upside, break of 143.94 resistance is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.73; (P) 147.03; (R1) 148.98; More

GBP/JPY’s rise continues today and breach of 148.42 resistance argues that whole medium term rebound from 122.36 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 150.43 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39. On the downside, below 146. 57 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the consolidation from 148.42 should have completed and medium term rebound from 122.36 is resuming. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.