GBP/JPY edged higher to 147.06 last week as rise from 138.65 extended. But upside momentum has been rather unconvincing with 4 hour MACD staying below signal line. Further rise is mildly in favor this week for 148.09/42 resistance zone. Decisive break there will extend whole rally from 122.36 to long term fibonacci level at 150.43 next. Nonetheless, break of 146.03 minor support will indicate short term topping. In such case, bias will be turned back to the downside for pull back towards 55 day EMA (now at 143.02).

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we’d be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

In the longer term picture, it remains to be confirmed is whole down trend from 195.86 has completed at 122.36 already and there is no confirmation yet. But in any case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. And with that, the 55 month EMA will be firmly taken out which suggests that price actions from 116.83 is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.39; (P) 148.41; (R1) 149.10; More

GBP/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 146.92 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. With 149.73 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.72; (P) 150.39; (R1) 151.60; More

GBP/JPY recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Above 151.38 will target 152.82 high. Decisive break there will confirm medium term rally resumption. On the downside, below 148.88 support will extend the consolidation from 152.82 with another fall. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.44; (P) 151.00; (R1) 151.55; More

Consolidation from 152.82 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper pull back, downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 141.17 to 152.82 at 148.36 to bring rally resumption. Break of 152.82 will extend the larger rise from 122.36 to 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.27; (P) 152.07; (R1) 152.59; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 151.55 minor support suggests that rebound from 148.43 has completed at 153.42, after rejection by 153.46 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall could be seen back to retest 148.43 support. On the upside, through, break of 153.42 will resume the rebound from 148.43 to retest 156.05 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will argue that rise from 123.94 has completed. Further break of 142.71 would open up the bearish case for retesting 122.75 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.41; (P) 138.22; (R1) 139.00; More…

With 140.08 resistance intact, further fall is expected in GBP/JPY. Decline from 144.77 would target medium term fibonacci level at 135.39. Overall, price action from 148.42 are seen as a consolidation pattern. We’ll look for bottoming around 135.39. Meanwhile, break of 140.08 resistance is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.77; (P) 152.17; (R1) 152.40; More…

GBP/JPY drops notably today but stays in range of 151.14/153.42. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 151.14 will suggest that rebound form 148.43 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 148.43 low. On the upside, break of 153.42/46 resistance will reaffirm the case that correction from 156.05 has completed at 148.43. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 156.05.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back to 142.71 resistance turned support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.11; (P) 148.48; (R1) 149.12; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 146.92 temporary low. Another decline is expected with 149.73 intact. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.47; (P) 142.28; (R1) 142.85; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment as it’s bounded in consolidation above 141.24 temporary low. With 144.01 support turned resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish for deeper decline. Break of 141.24 will extend the fall from 147.76 to 138.65 support and below. As GBP/JPY is seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 148.42, we’d expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 144.01 will indicate completion of the decline from 147.76 and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the sideway pattern from 148.42 is extending with another leg. But we’d expect strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Medium term rise from 122.36 is still expected to resume later. And break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. However, firm break of 135.58/39 will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 122.36 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.62; (P) 151.21; (R1) 151.91; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. As long as 146.96 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. Break of 152.93 will resume medium term rally and target 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after consolidation from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 46.96 support will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.80; (P) 149.30; (R1) 149.78; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall resumed from 156.59 by breaking 147.95 support. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Current fall should target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 150.92 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in weekly MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 154.60) and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.53; (P) 182.05; (R1) 182.46; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. With 181.00 support intact, further rise is in favor. The favored case is still that correction from 186.75 has completed at 178.02. Above 183.79 will resume the rise from 178.02 to retest 186.75 high. However, break of 181.00 will dampen this view, and turn bias back to the downside for 178.02 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 186.75 is seen as a corrective move only. As long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and bring lengthier and deeper consolidations.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.96; (P) 149.43; (R1) 149.83; More

GBP/JPY’s decline from 152.82 accelerates lower and breaks 38.2% retracement of 141.17 to 152.82 at 148.36 firmly. The development argues that whole rise from 139.29 is completed. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 146.27). Sustained trading below there will bring retest of 139.29 key support level. On the upside, break of 149.92 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, deeper decline will now remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.86; (P) 141.76; (R1) 143.47; More….

GBP/JPY’s rally continues and reaches as high as 143.20 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 144.77 resistance. Consolidation pattern from 148.42 should have completed three waves down to 135.58, after hitting 135.39 fibonacci level. Break of 144.77 should extend whole rise from 122.36 through 148.42. On the downside, break of 140.04 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. As long as 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 holds, another rising leg would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 and possibly above. However, firm break of 135.39 will bring retest of 122.36, with prospect of resuming the larger down trend from 195.86.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.08; (P) 194.48; (R1) 195.11; More..

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. This rebound is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen back to 197.40 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 193.82 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.34) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

GBP/JPY’s fall from 148.42 resumed last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 138.46. Sustained trading below 138.46 will affirm the case that corrective rise from 122.36 has completed at 148.42 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 132.31 and below. On the upside, break of 142.16 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 145.38 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Upside is so far limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range. At this point, we don’t expect a break of 122.36 in near term and the corrective pattern would extend for a while.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we’d expect another fall through 116.83 low.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.88; (P) 140.28; (R1) 140.75; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a corrective pattern, with fall from 144.77 has a leg. On the downside, below 138.52 will target 136.44 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39. But we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 141.96 will turn bias to the upside and probably extend the rise from 136.44 through 144.77.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.69; (P) 145.24; (R1) 146.11; More

GBP/JPY drops sharply after hitting 146.77 but it’s staying above 144.01 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 144.01 will extend the sideway pattern from 148.20 with another fall back to 135.58/65 support zone. On the upside, above 146.77 will turn bias to the upside. Further break of 147.76/148.42 key resistance zone will resume larger rebound from 122.36.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we’d be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 146.20; (R1) 146.61; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 148.09 could extend. But in case of deeper fall downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 143.31 and bring rise resumption. Break of 148.42 will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

No change in GBP/JPY after last week’s choppy price actions. Price actions from 152.82 are developing to a corrective pattern. As long as 149.45 minor resistance holds, deeper fall is mildly in favor through 146.92 support. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.45 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 151.92/152.82 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.78). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, firm break of 139.29 will suggests that the long term down trend is still in progress and could break 116.83 low ahead.