GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 206.42. Initial bias is on the upside this week for further rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.97 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 211.62. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 197.18 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 116.83 to 195.86 from 122.75 at 231.96. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds, or until a clear reversal pattern forms.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.90; (P) 134.27; (R1) 134.56; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Current decline from 148.87 should target 131.51 low next. On the upside, break of 136.50 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.36; (P) 182.17; (R1) 183.49; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 183.00 will argue that the pull back from 187.65 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 180.26 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 178.02 again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 186.75 is currently seen as a corrective move only. As long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and bring lengthier and deeper consolidations.

GBP/JPY rose to 156.07 last week but retreated sharply since then. A short term top is likely in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 150.18 support next. Break there will target a test on 146.96 key support level. Nonetheless, break of 156.07 will resume medium term rally.

In the bigger picture, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And there would be prospect of retesting 122.36 in that case.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 154.75). Firm break there will suggest that rise from 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.24; (P) 199.66; (R1) 200.37; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. But upside should be limited there. On the downside, below 198.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 197.07 will argue that the third leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53 has started, and target 191.34 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.92) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.68; (P) 140.96; (R1) 141.45; More….

GBP/JPY is staying in range of 138.65/142.75 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 138.65 will resume the decline from 148.09. In that case, we’d look for bottoming signal around 135.58, which is close to 135.39 fibonacci level, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 142.75 should confirm completion of the fall from 148.09 and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 148.09 is deeper than expected, we’re not bearish in the cross yet. Price action from 148.42 is possibly developing into a sideway pattern with fall from 148.09 as the third leg. Deeper decline could be seen but we’re looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Rise from 122.36 is still mildly in favor to resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 135.58/39 will confirm reversal and target a retest on 122.36 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.71; (P) 146.41; (R1) 147.75; More…

A temporary low is in place at 144.97 as GBP/JPY recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But still, outlook remains bearish with 150.92 resistance intact. Deeper decline is expected. Break of 144.97 will extend the fall from 156.69 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. We’ll look for bottoming signal there. But firm break will target 139.29 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.88; (P) 135.24; (R1) 136.01; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 134.34) will argue that whole rebound form 123.94 has completed. Fall from 139.73 should then target 129.27 support to confirm this case. On the upside, though, above 136.23 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 139.73 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. however, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.45; (P) 142.09; (R1) 143.14; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 143.05 minor resistance suggests that corrective fall from 147.95 has completed at 141.15. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 147.95 high. On the downside, break of 141.15 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. Rejection from there will extend long term range trading. Decisive break of 156.69 will carry long term bullish implications.

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation below 140.20 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is mildly in favor as long as 137.84 support holds. Break of 140.20 will target 100% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 141.07. However, break of 137.84 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 136.60) first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 144.90) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.62; (P) 135.94; (R1) 136.51; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 135.38. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by 138.32 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 135.38 will extend recent fall from 148.87 to retest 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.44; (P) 155.98; (R1) 156.38; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. The consolidation pattern from 158.19 could still extend further. On the downside, below 154.46 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 152.88 support and below. Nevertheless, above 156.48 will target a test on 157.74/158.19 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.42; (P) 136.00; (R1) 136.43; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral as it lost momentum after hitting 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 135.53. Further fall will remain mildly in favor as long as 138.38 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 135.53 will suggest that whole rebound from 123.94 has completed. Deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 131.11 next. Though, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 138.38 minor resistance, will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 142.71 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.25; (P) 159.24; (R1) 161.22; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Up trend form 123.94 has just resumed. Next target is 61.8% projection of 136.96 to 158.19 from 150.95 at 164.07. On the downside, below 159.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) should still be in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.94 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.53; (P) 150.14; (R1) 151.05; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 150.92 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 152.54. Firm break there will suggest that correction from 156.05 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 149.03 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 13.78 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59 (2018 high). Fall from 156.05 would at least be correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.71; (P) 147.42; (R1) 147.94; More…

GBP/JPY dropped sharply after hitting 148.10 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 145.82 minor support holds. Above 148.10 will target 149.99 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to retest 153.84 high. However, break of 145.82 will argue that the rebound is completed and bring retest of 143.18 low.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.90; (P) 154.31; (R1) 154.79; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 152.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. Fall from 157.74 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 158.19. Deeper decline is expected as long as 155.38 minor resistance holds. Below 152.88 will target 148.94 support next. On the upside, above 155.38 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 157.74/158.19 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are currently seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.74; (P) 143.00; (R1) 143.37; More…

A temporary top is formed at 143.25 with today’s retreat. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral for some consolidations. Downside should be contained above 139.31 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 143.25 will resume the rally from 126.54. Sustained break of trend line resistance (now at 143.52) will pave the way to 148.87 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 126.54 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Further rally could be seen but for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 156.59 to limit upside. On the downside, sustained break of 135.74 resistance turned support will suggest that such rebound has completed. Deeper decline could the be seen to retest 126.54 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.96; (P) 162.94; (R1) 163.58; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as correction from 168.40 is extending. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 168.40 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.77; (P) 154.30; (R1) 154.91; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. As noted before, corrective pattern from 156.05 should have completed after defending 149.03 key support. Further rise would be seen to retest 156.05 high. On the downside, below 153.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59 (2018 high). Fall from 156.05 would at least be correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.