EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1094 continued last week despite some loss of downside momentum. Further fall is expected this week as long as 1.0830 resistance holds. Current fall from 1.1094 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534, and should target 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0830 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1156). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next.

EUR/USD recovered strongly after choppy fall from 1.1249 extended to 1.1051. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for extending the consolidation pattern from 1.1026. Upside should be limited by 1.1249 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.1051 will target 1.1026 low and below. However, sustained break of 1.1249 will have 55 day EMA taken out too. Stronger rise should then be seen to 1.1412 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1632) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0699; (P) 1.0732 (R1) 1.0767; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0348 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0757) will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0853; (P) 1.0881; (R1) 1.0907; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0777 extends further to as high as 1.0978 today. The strength suggests that it’s corrective whole fall from 1.1239 to 1.0777. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1239 to 1.0777 at 1.1063 next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. Below 1.0890 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low. However, sustained break of 1.1063 will raise the chance of larger reversal and target 1.1239 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1187; (P) 1.1225; (R1) 1.1249; More…

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1193/1285 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.1193 will resume the fall from 1.1412 to retest 1.1107 low. On the upside, above 1.1285 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1412 resistance.

In the bigger picture, bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD suggests that 1.1107 is a medium term bottom. However, rejection by 55 EMA retains medium term bearish. Outlook will be neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0795; (P) 1.0813; (R1) 1.0830; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as consolidation continues above 1.0759. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.0903 resistance holds. Fall from 1.1094 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534. Below 1.0759 will target 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.0903 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.1094 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1655; (P) 1.1700 (R1) 1.1740; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. While corrective rise from 1.1509 might extend higher, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1617 minor support will bring retest of 1.1509 low first. Break will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0855; (P) 1.0903 (R1) 1.0950; More….

EUR/USD is staying in tight range below 1.0949 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidations. At this point, another rise could be seen as long as 1.0777 support holds. But still, rise form 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Hence we’d pay attention to topping signal even if EUR/USD rises through 1.0949. On the downside, below 1.0777 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0611; (P) 1.0640; (R1) 1.0668; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as sideway consolidation continues. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0481 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041. However, firm break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 1.0289 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2277; (P) 1.2316 (R1) 1.2355; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s still bounded in range of 1.2205/2555. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1792; (P) 1.1849; (R1) 1.1898; More…..

EUR/USD is still bounded in range below 1.1920. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.1920 will reaffirm the case that consolidation from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.2011 high. However, break of 1.1745 support will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0494 accelerated higher last week. The development dampened our bearish view of down trend resuming. Instead, it suggest that corrective rise from 1.0339 is still in progress. And further rise would be seen through 1.0828 resistance in near term.

Initial bias in EUD/USD stays on the upside this week for 1.0828 resistance and above. However, since rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. We’d upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983 to bring larger down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.0639 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0494 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds. However, firm break of 1.1298 should now confirm long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1012; (P) 1.1028; (R1) 1.1042; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. Corrective recovery from 1.0879 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 1.1109 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0941 minor support should confirm completion of the recovery and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0879 low first. However, firm break of 1.1109 will be an early sign of medium term bottoming and target 1.1412 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1721; (P) 1.1746; (R1) 1.1772; More…..

EUR/USD’s decline today should confirm completion of recovery from 1.1612 at 1.1830. Intraday bias is back on the downside, for 1.1612 support. Break will resume corrective fall from 1.2011, for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, break of 1.1771 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1739; (P) 1.1786; (R1) 1.1826; More…..

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1791 minor support dampens the bullish case. Instead, it suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.2011 high might be resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.1602 support. Nevertheless, break of 1.1920 will resume the rise from1 .1602 for resting 1.2011 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1700; (P) 1.1735 (R1) 1.1779; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.1679 will indicate that corrective rise from 1.1507 has completed. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1507. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 1.2555. Above 1.790 will extend the corrective rice. But upside be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2252; (P) 1.2294 (R1) 1.2328; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Focus stays on 1.2251 minor support Firm break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.2154. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside to extend the fall from 1.2555. On the upside, break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high. Decisive break there will resume medium term rally and carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0278; (P) 1.0319; (R1) 1.0366; More…

EUR/USD’s rally from 0.9534 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 1.0609 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.0270 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1233; (P) 1.1288; (R1) 1.1315; More…..

Break of 1.1257 suggests decline resumption in EUR/USD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1215 support. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.1341 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0647 (R1) 1.0723; More…..

With 1.0630 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside. Rise from 1.0494 is expected to extend to 1.0828 resistance and above. Note again that rise from 1.0339 low is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983. The larger down trend is still expected to resume later. On the downside, break of prior resistance at 1.0630 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0494 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.