EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0905 last week but was rejected by 55 week EMA and reversed. The development argues that corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed and larger down trend is ready resume. Firm break of 1.0494 support will affirm this bearish case.

Initial bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside this week for 1.0494 support. Break should confirm completion of the corrective rise from 1.0339. And, larger down trend is likely resuming in this case. Break of 1.0339 will confirm down trend resumption and target parity next. On the upside, above 1.0739 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds. However, firm break of 1.1298 should now confirm long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1552; (P) 1.1588; (R1) 1.1616; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1814 continues today and reaches as low as 1.1553 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.1525 support. Decisive break there will confirm that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed at 1.1814. In such case, deeper fall should be seen back to retest 1.1300. On the upside, above 1.1650 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 1.1814 to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1065; (P) 1.1149; (R1) 1.1208; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall is part of the down trend from 1.2348. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786. On the upside, break of 1.1273 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0645; (P) 1.0683; (R1) 1.0712; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall form 1.1032 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 1.0721 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0803 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1148; (P) 1.1191 (R1) 1.1222; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, remain cautious on strong resistance from 1.1245/98 (138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245) to limit upside and bring reversal. But another rise will be in favor as long as 1.1020 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.1020 resistance turned support will indicate rejection from 1.1245/98 and turn bias to the downside for 1.0838 support first.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1350; (P) 1.1366; (R1) 1.1385; More……

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1317 minor support intact, another rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 100% projection of 1.1107 to 1.1347 from 1.1181 at 1.1142 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.1569 next. However, firm break of 1.1317 will be an early sign of completion of rise from 1.1107. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 support instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0704; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0744; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0804 resistance holds. Below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to retest 1.0447 support. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, above 1.0804 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1793; (P) 1.1866 (R1) 1.1912; More….

EUR/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.1762 as recent decline extends. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.2555 should target 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next. Break will target 1.1553 support. And, on the upside, break of 1.1995 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2162) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0597; (P) 1.0615 (R1) 1.0627; More…..

EUR/USD drops sharply today but stays above 1.0520 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. With 1.0713 minor resistance intact, we’re holding on to our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Below 1.0520 will target 1.0339 first. Break will extend the larger down trend to parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1758; (P) 1.1780; (R1) 1.1805; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decline from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, would target 1.1703 support. On the upside, though, break of 1.1880 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 1.1974 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1333; (P) 1.1354; (R1) 1.1393; More…

EUR?USD is staying in range despite dipping to 1.1249. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1384 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming at 1.1262, after defending 1.1289 long term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound back to 1.1523 support turned resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.1289 will carry larger bearish implication, and extend the fall from 1.2348 to 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1598; (P) 1.1626 (R1) 1.1668; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. Overall, with 1.1689 resistance intact, fall from 1.2091 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. We’d be cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. But sustained break of 1.1510 will pave the way to next support zone at 1.1118/1267. On the upside, break of 1.1689 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1836 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2181; (P) 1.2222 (R1) 1.2281; More….

EUR/USD continues to be bounded in consolidative trading below 1.2322 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen. But as long as 1.2088 resistance turned support holds, further rally is expected. Break of 1.2322 will resume medium term rise to 1.2494/2516 key resistance zone next. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2088 will argue that EUR/USD has topped earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494. Break of 1.1553 support will confirm completion of the rise. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0382; (P) 1.0434 (R1) 1.0470; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral of the moment, but risk remains on the downside as long as 1.0786 resistance holds. Below 1.0396 will target 1.0039 long term support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1103; (P) 1.1124; (R1) 1.1139; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first and consolidation from 1.1199 might extend. As long as 1.1039 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, above 1.1199 will turn bias back to the upside for 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, break of 1.1039 will turn focus back to 1.0981 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1799; (P) 1.1824; (R1) 1.1867; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.1916 might extend. As long as 1.1711 support holds, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1916 will resume larger rise from 1.0635. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1255 to 1.1916 from 1.1711 at 1.2119. On the downside, though, break of 1.1711 should short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside towards 55 day EMA (now at 1.1494).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0752; (P) 1.0811; (R1) 1.0846; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0873 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0482 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.0873 will resume larger rally from 0.9534 to 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rally is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1177; (P) 1.1256; (R1) 1.1297; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Down trend from 1.2555 is in progress. Next target is 1.1186 fibonacci level first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.1300 from 1.1814 at 1.1038 next. On the upside, above 1.1313 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 1.1499 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0914; (P) 1.0967; (R1) 1.1008; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.0805/1120 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is still expected with 1.1120 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786 will pave they way to 100% projection at 1.0349 next. However, strong break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming, at least, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1494 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1921; (P) 1.1996 (R1) 1.2046; More…

Retreat from 1.2069 extends lower today and deeper fall could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1866). But downside should be contained well above 1.1661 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.2069 will extend the whole rally from 1.0339 to 61.8% projection of 1.1118 to 1.1908 from 1.1661 at 1.2149 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.2451 next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.