Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0867; (R1) 1.0904; More…

EUR/USD breached 38.2% retracement of 1.1095 to 1.0777 at 1.0898 briefly but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d still expected upside of recovery to be limited by 1.0898. Firm break of 1.0777 will resume larger down trend. Though, firm break of 1.0898 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.0974.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1218; (P) 1.1340; (R1) 1.1405; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 1.1496 continues. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.1095 support holds. Sustained break of 1.1496 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.1876. However, break of 1.1096 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should have formed at 1.0777 after drawing support from 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456 will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1876. Rejection by 1.1456 will suggests that price actions from 1.0777 are merely a correction. Another fall below 1.0777 low would be seen at a later stage in this case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0183; (P) 1.0219; (R1) 1.0282; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in range and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.0095 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Rebound from 0.9951 will target 1.0348 support turned resistance. Break there will target channel resistance at 1.0432. On the downside, break of 1.0095 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, and bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2093; (P) 1.2153; (R1) 1.2189; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.1985 support should confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.1703 support. On the upside, above 1.2265 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to retest 1.2348 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

EUR/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.1026 has completed at 1.1249, after failing to sustain above 55 day EMA (now at 1.1202). Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.1026 low first. Decisive break there will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. On the downside, above 1.1130 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside to extend the corrective. But in that case, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1632) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0789; (P) 1.0800; (R1) 1.0819; More…

A temporary low should be formed at 1.0777 in EUR/USD with today’s recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral first some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.0992 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0777 will resume recent down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1354; (P) 1.1406; (R1) 1.1439; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.1455 reaffirm that consolidation pattern from 1.1300 has started the third, rising leg. Further rise should be seen to 1.1621 resistance and above. But upside should be limited by 1.1814 to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.300 will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1300 is seen as a corrective pattern. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. In case the consolidation from 1.1300 extends, upside should be limited by 1.1814 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. to bring down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1984; (P) 1.2026; (R1) 1.2059; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.2079 temporary top. But further rally is expected with 1.1941 minor support intact. As noted before, correction from 1.2348 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1703. Break of 1.2079 will target 1.2442/2348 resistance zone. However, break of 1.1941 will argue that the rebound from 1.1703 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0685; (P) 1.0709 (R1) 1.0755; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0348 resumed after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Firm break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0758 will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1189; (P) 1.1206 (R1) 1.1228; More….

EUR/USD continues to gyrate in range below 1.1284 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Focus remains on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0952; (P) 1.0975; (R1) 1.0991; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current decline should target 100% projection of 1.1412 to 1.1026 from 1.1249 at 1.0683 next. On the upside, above 1.0996 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again first. But recovery should be limited well below 1.1249 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2077; (P) 1.2124; (R1) 1.2152; More…

EUR/USD’s strong break of 1.2080 minor support argues that recovery from 1.1951 has completed at 1.2168. The development also suggests that corrective pattern from 1.2348 is extending with a third leg down. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1951 support first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2168 at 1.1771. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2168 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0845; (P) 1.0868 (R1) 1.0900; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. But further fall is expected with 1.0987 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0805 low will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0758, and then 100% projection at 1.0495. On the upside, above 1.0987 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1184 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1795; (P) 1.1823; (R1) 1.1871; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.1880 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will firstly indicate short term bottoming at 1.1751, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1974 resistance first. Sustained break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed, and bring stronger rise back to 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1099; (P) 1.1127; (R1) 1.1142; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 1.1199 is still extending. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1039 support holds. On the upside, above 1.1199 will turn bias back to the upside for 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, break of 1.1039 will turn focus back to 1.0981 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1351; (P) 1.1387; (R1) 1.1438; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1335 temporary low. On the downside, below 1.1335 will target 1.1300 key support first. Decisive break will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 1.1621 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.1300 with another rise before larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0616; (P) 1.0647 (R1) 1.0706; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0520 temporary low. As long as 1.0713 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. We’re holding on to the view that fall from 1.0828 is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.0520 will target a test on 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and target parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen out view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1138 extended lower last week but continued to lose downside momentum. Break of 1.0779 will resume the fall, but considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, downside could be contained by 1.0722 support. On the upside, break of 1.0896 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.1138. However, decisive break of 1.0722 will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1059) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2402; (P) 1.2459 (R1) 1.2511; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.2222 support holds, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of 1.2494/2516 will target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075 next. However, break of 1.2222 will indicate rejection from 1.2494/2516, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn near term outlook bearish for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1156; (P) 1.1173; (R1) 1.1200; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1111 extends higher today but still, it’s seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1175 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1111 first. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.