EUR/USD rose to 0.9998 last week but reversed just ahead of parity. Immediate focus stays on 0.9734 minor support this week. Firm break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.9534. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0368 to 0.9534 from 0.9998 at 0.9163. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9998 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 0.9998 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.

EUR/USD dipped to 1.0520 last week but recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week work. With 1.0713 minor resistance intact, we’re holding on to our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Below 1.0520 will target 1.0339 first. Break will extend the larger down trend to parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1483; (P) 1.1515; (R1) 1.1550; More…..

EUR/USD edges higher to 1.1598 in early US session as rebound from 1.1431 extends. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1617) and possibly above. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.1779/1814 resistance zone to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1514 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.1431 will bring retest of 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1216; (P) 1.1286; (R1) 1.1359; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.1287 minor support intact. Sustained break of 1.1456 fibonacci resistance will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.1876. On the downside, below 1.1287 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should have formed at 1.0777 after drawing support from 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456 will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1876. Rejection by 1.1456 will suggests that price actions from 1.0777 are merely a correction. Another fall below 1.0777 low would be seen at a later stage in this case.

EUR/USD’s decline extended to as low as 1.1966 last week. While downside momentum has been diminishing, there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2008 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2077) or above.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0951; (P) 1.0971; (R1) 1.0989; More…

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.0879 resumes and intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rise. But upside should be limited by 1.1109 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0941 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0879 low first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9755; (P) 0.9812; (R1) 0.9919; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.9630 bring retest of 0.9534 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.9998 resistance will resume the rise from 0.9534, and carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 0.9998 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9998 will confirm medium term bottoming, and bring further rise back to 1.0368 resistance first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0666; (P) 1.0682; (R1) 1.0710; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.0767 resistance, should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.0944 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.0609/34 support zone will carry larger bearish implication, and target 1.0515 support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Strong support could be seen from 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609) to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, sustained break of 1.0609/0634 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2091; (P) 1.2127; (R1) 1.2149; More…..

Range trading continues in EUR/USD below 1.2177 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of another retreat, downside should be be contained by 1.2003 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.2177 resume whole rise from 1.0635, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1199; (P) 1.1238; (R1) 1.1266; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again first. On the downside, break of 1.1202 minor support will indicate rejection by 1.1273 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for deeper pull back to 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1119) and possibly below. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1273 will extend larger up trend to 161.8% projection of 1.0634 to 1.1011 from 1.0832 at 1.1442 next.

In the bigger picture, as rise from 0.9534 extends, focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next. Meanwhile, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 1.0832 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0521; (P) 1.0548; (R1) 1.0570; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.1032 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support could be seen there to bring reversal. But break of 1.0693 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming first. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0463 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1532; (P) 1.1580; (R1) 1.1632; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound and breach of 1.1627 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.1733 has completed at 1.1529 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.1733 and possibly above. For now, we’d still expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, firm break of 1.1529 will indicate completion of the corrective rebound from 1.1300 and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0918; (P) 1.0988; (R1) 1.1106; More…

With 1.0888 minor support intact, further rise is in favor in EUR/USD to 61.8 retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167 next. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.1167 will raise the chance of larger reversal and turn focus to 1.1496 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0888 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend form 1.2555 (2018 high) should have resumed. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.0777 from 1.1496 at 1.0397. This level is close to 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1496 resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1268; (P) 1.1298; (R1) 1.1334; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside. Corrective rebound from 1.1185 should have completed at a.1482. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.1185 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2348 to 61.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1185 from 1.1482 at 1.1035. On the upside, above 1.1368 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside, and extend the consolidation from 1.1185 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1134; (P) 1.1173; (R1) 1.1243; More…..

At this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from 1.1282 to finish the recovery from 1.1026. On the downside, below 1.1133 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 1.1026 will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. Though, break of 1.1282 will turn focus back to 1.1412 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1264; (P) 1.1304; (R1) 1.1332; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1215 support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1383 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1499 resistance. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0666 (R1) 1.0687; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed and larger down trend is possibly ready to resume. Break of 1.0494 should confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low and below. Break of 1.0339 will confirm down trend resumption and target parity next. On the upside, above 1.0739 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1654; (P) 1.1687 (R1) 1.1726; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.1507 is in progress. Stronger recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. The larger decline from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 1.1507 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 and then 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0789; (P) 1.0812; (R1) 1.0856; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Overall, consolidation from 1.0635 is still extending. Above 1.0899 minor resistance will bring another rise to 1.1019 resistance and above. But upside should be by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will bring retest of 1.0635 low next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0648; (P) 1.0698; (R1) 1.0780; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763) will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. On the downside, below 1.0666 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.