Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1259; (P) 1.1282; (R1) 1.1299; More……

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1251 minor support indicates completion of rebound from 1.1107 at 1.1347. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for retesting 1.1107 first. But decisive break there is needed to confirm resumption of larger down trend from 1.2555. Otherwise, more consolidation from 1.1107 might still extend further. On the upside, above 1.1289 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it’s early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.

EUR/USD dipped to 1.0493 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Though, with 1.0713 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. We’re viewing fall from 1.0828 as resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.0493 will target 1.0339 low first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target parity. However, break of 1.0678 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD rebounded strong to 1.1116 last week but quickly reversed from there. Near term outlook is mixed for now and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0981 will resume the decline from 1.1179 for retesting 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1116 will bring a test on 1.1179 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1566) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1116; (P) 1.1131; (R1) 1.1145; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1111 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1263 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, firm break of 1.1107 will target 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. However, sustained break of 1.1263 resistance will now be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the upside for 1.1448 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1470; (P) 1.1527; (R1) 1.1560; More…..

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook. Corrective recovery from there should have completed at 1.1621. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.1431 support. Break of 1.1431 will resume the decline from 1.1814 and target a test on 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1547 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and wold probably extend the consolidation from 1.1431 with another rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned neutral first.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0676 (R1) 1.0755; More…..

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0339 is still in progress for 1.0872 resistance and possibly above. Nonetheless, such rise is seen as a corrective move. Below 1.0453 will argue that it’s completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0875; (P) 1.0914; (R1) 1.0943; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 1.0774 will target a test on 1.0635 low. On the upside, above 1.1008 will stronger rebound to 1.1147 resistance. After all, price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Upside be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1813; (P) 1.1841 (R1) 1.1888; More…

EUR/USD dips mildly after hitting 1.1879. But still, with 1.1794 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside for further rally. As noted before, pull back from 1.2091 should have completed at 1.1669, ahead of 1.1661 support. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.2091 high. We’ll be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall to extend the consolidation. On the downside, below 1.1794 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and could extend the correction from 1.2091 through 1.1669.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1148; (P) 1.1187; (R1) 1.1213; More…..

The breach of 1.1173 minor support suggests that consolidation from 1.1111 has completed at 1.1263. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1111. Decisive break there will resumer larger down from from 1.2555 to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0810; (P) 1.0843; (R1) 1.0905; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again as it recovered after dipping to 1.0779. While another fall cannot be ruled out, considering persistent bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, downside should be contained by 1.0722 key structural support. On the upside, firm break of 1.0886 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1138 resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.0722 will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed, and target this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1724; (P) 1.1747; (R1) 1.1758; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside, as fall from 1.2265 is in progress to 1.1602/1703 support zone. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But break of 1.1907 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that it’s already reversing the trend from 1.1603, and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1603 to 1.2348 at 1.1888.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0554 (R1) 1.0599; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0339 continues. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1433; (P) 1.1458; (R1) 1.1479; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for some consolidation below 1.1482 temporary top. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598 to finish the corrective rise from 1.1185. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1972; (P) 1.2024; (R1) 1.2122; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside. Current rise from 1.0635 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next. On the downside, break of 1.1923 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1240; (P) 1.1272; (R1) 1.1309; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.1382 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1426).

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2103; (P) 1.2124; (R1) 1.2138; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.2188 resistance. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2348 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1951. Break of 1.2188 resistance will bring retest of 1.2348 high. On the downside, below 1.2087 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1611; (P) 1.1665 (R1) 1.1712; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1509 is still in progress. Stronger rebound could be seen. But we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.1509 will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1725; (R1) 1.1807; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2216 next. On the downside, below 1.1640 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1422 resistance turned support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1003; (P) 1.1050 (R1) 1.1128; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as current rally continues. The pair would target 138.2% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0569 at 1.1245, which is close to 1.1298 key resistance. For now, rise from 1.0339 is still viewed as a corrective move. Hence we’d expect strong resistance below 1.1245/98 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.1028 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.0838 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0795; (P) 1.0823; (R1) 1.0843; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a corrective pattern, which might extend further. On the upside, above 1.0895 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1019 resistance. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.