Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0460; (P) 1.0512 (R1) 1.0553; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Sustained break of 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0069. On the upside, above 1.0584 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it’s resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2129; (P) 1.2154; (R1) 1.2174; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is mildly on the upside at this point. Firm break of 1.2188 resistance should confirm completion of the correction from 1.2348, and bring retest on this high. On the downside, though, break of 1.2090 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 1.1951 will extend the correction from 1.2348 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0685; (P) 1.0709 (R1) 1.0755; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside, as rebound from 1.0348 is in progress. Firm break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0758) will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1887; (P) 1.1933 (R1) 1.1968; More….

EUR/USD’s decline continues to as low as 1.1850 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 261.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1730. It will be close to 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level. And some support could be seen around 1.1708/30 to bring rebound. Though, break of 1.1938 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0801; (P) 1.0832; (R1) 1.0880; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation from 1.0777. Another recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1095 to 1.0777 at 1.0898. On the downside, break of 1.0777 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2121; (P) 1.2149; (R1) 1.2189; More…

Focus is back on 1.2052 support in EUR/USD with today’s steep decline. Break there will resume whole correction from 1.2348. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.1887. On the upside, though, break of 1.2188 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2348.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2077; (P) 1.2124; (R1) 1.2152; More…

EUR/USD’s strong break of 1.2080 minor support argues that recovery from 1.1951 has completed at 1.2168. The development also suggests that corrective pattern from 1.2348 is extending with a third leg down. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1951 support first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2168 at 1.1771. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2168 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1772; (P) 1.1813; (R1) 1.1887; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further fall is still in favor as long as 1.1917 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1737 support will reaffirm that case that it’s now in correction to rise from 1.6035. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. However, break of 1.1917 will revive near term bullishness and target 1.2011 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1179 last week but retreated since then. As long as 1.1062 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. On the upside break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will turn focus back to 1.0879 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1603) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1277; (P) 1.1308; (R1) 1.1359; More…..

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1341 earlier today but drops sharply in early US session. Intraday bias remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1257 temporary low might extend. Though, upside should be limited below 1.1398 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. We’re holding on to the view that corrective pattern from 1.1215 has completed already. On the downside, below 1.1257 should see further decline through 1.1215 low to 1.1186 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.1398 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rebound back to 1.1514/69 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0808; (P) 1.0841; (R1) 1.0872; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.1094 short term top is in progress. Current decline is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, above 1.0903 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0815; (P) 1.0843; (R1) 1.0882; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0777 is extending. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1095 to 1.0777 at 1.0898. On the downside, break of 1.0777 will resume larger down trend. Though, break of 1.0898 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.0974.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0972; (P) 1.1009; (R1) 1.1054; More…

EUR/USD is extending the sideway consolidation from 1.1094 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0908 support holds. Break of 1.1094 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441 However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0908 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

EUR/USD edged higher last week but settled back into established range. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0095 minor support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.9951 low first. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0348 support turned resistance holds, even in case of another rise.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) resuming. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1036; (P) 1.1142; (R1) 1.1202; More…

EUR/USD is still staying below 1.1199 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 1.1199 might extend. But as long as 1.1039 support holds, further rise is expected. On the upside, above 1.1199 will turn bias back to the upside for 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, break of 1.1039 will turn focus back to 1.0981 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0485; (P) 1.0531 (R1) 1.0560; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.0641 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.0470 will resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069. On the upside, break of 1.0641 will turn bias to bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it’s resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1317; (P) 1.1339; (R1) 1.1368; More…..

EUR/USD recovers mildly in early US session but it’s bounded in range of 1.1267/1472. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.1472 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1788 (R1) 1.1820; More….

EUR/USD’s decline resumed after brief recovery and breaks 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Whole decline from 1.2555 should target 50% retracement at 1.1447 next. Though, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1829 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. And, lengthier consolidation would be seen in this year, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2076) holds.

EUR/USD rebound from 1.0348 short term bottom continued last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0757) will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is ready to resume. Break of 1.0339 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. Decisive break there could bring downside acceleration towards 100% projection at 0.8694.

EUR/USD’s up trend from 0.9534 resumed by breaking through 1.0733 last week and hit as high as 1.0867. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164 next. On the downside, below 1.0729 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0482 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rally is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1207). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.