Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1569; (P) 1.1603; (R1) 1.1664; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside for 1.1733 and possibly above. And again, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, firm break of 1.1529 will indicate completion of the corrective rebound from 1.1300. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1830; (P) 1.1857; (R1) 1.1876; More…

Some jitter is seen in EUR/USD in early US session. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 1.1883 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.2263, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, should target 1.1703 support. On the upside, above 1.1883 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.1974 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1606; (P) 1.1637; (R1) 1.1653; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and further is in favor with 1.1571 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1707) will be a sign that larger correction from 1.2348 has completed. Stronger rally would be seen to 1.1908 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 1.1571 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1523 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1502; (P) 1.1596; (R1) 1.1657; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for 1.1523 support first. Break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and that from 1.2348 too, for long term fibonacci level at 1.1289 next. For now, further decline is expected as long as 1.1691 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0686; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0735; More….

EUR/USD is staying in range above 1.0667 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Break of 1.0667 will resume the fall from 1.0915, as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Next target is 1.0601 low. However, break of 1.0760 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that’s still in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.1274 to 1.0447 from 1.1138 at 1.0311. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.0915 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1259; (P) 1.1282; (R1) 1.1299; More……

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1251 minor support indicates completion of rebound from 1.1107 at 1.1347. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for retesting 1.1107 first. But decisive break there is needed to confirm resumption of larger down trend from 1.2555. Otherwise, more consolidation from 1.1107 might still extend further. On the upside, above 1.1289 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it’s early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0491; (P) 1.0548 (R1) 1.0627; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further fall is in favor with 1.0786 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0747 (R1) 1.0769; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally re-accelerates and reaches as high as 1.0811 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. Nonetheless, we maintain that rise from 1.0339 is a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983 to completion the correction. On the downside, break of 1.0705 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0494 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to resume later. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0963; (P) 1.0982; (R1) 1.1021; More…

Break of 1.1011 resistance indicates that rise from 1.0634 is resuming. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside for retesting 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 1.0942 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. but further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.0834 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1821; (P) 1.1850; (R1) 1.1903; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside, as rebound from 1.1703 short term bottoming is extending. Break of 1.1988 resistance will will add to the case that whole correction from 1.2348 has completed. Further rally would then be seen to 1.2242 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 1.1821 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2173; (P) 1.2231 (R1) 1.2265; More….

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.2184 so far and the break of 1.2214 support revived the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2514 support first. Decisive break there will confirm the bearish case and target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991. On the upside, 1.2250 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.2413 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Firm break of 1.2154 support will confirm rejection by this fibonacci level. And in that case, a medium term top is at least formed at 1.2555. EUR/USD should then head back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1802 last week but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we maintain our view that 1.1779 should limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1649 minor support will be the first signal that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm and bring retest of 1.1300 low. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD was bounded in range of 1.1267/1472 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 1.1472 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. On the downside, break of 1.1267 will target 1.1215 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.1472 will be suggest medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1415; (P) 1.1449; (R1) 1.1486; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. A medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1120, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1482 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the downside, break of 1.1329 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is seen as a leg inside the range pattern from 1.2555 (2018 high). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.1613) will argue that it has completed and stronger rise would be seen back towards top of the range between 1.2348 and 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next.

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1880 resistance last week argues that consolidation pattern from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2011 first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.0635. On the downside, however, break of 1.1791 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1576). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0822; (P) 1.0862; (R1) 1.0894; More…

At this point, further rise remains mildly in favor in EUR/USD. Rise from 1.0768 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.0635 and would target 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0768 will resume the fall to retest 1.0635 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0854; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0924; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0964 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0823 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, firm break of 1.0823 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1877; (P) 1.1928; (R1) 1.1962; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Correction from 1.2348 in progress for 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2242 at 1.1845. We’d look for bottoming signal there. On the upside, above 1.1990 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.2112 resistance will confirm short term bottoming. However, firm break of 1.1845 will extend the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD’s pull back from 1.1908 extended to 1.1688 last week but recovered since then. With 1.1908 resistance intact, initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1908 will extend recent up trend to 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0481; (P) 1.0530 (R1) 1.0567; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0470 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.0470 will resume larger down trend and target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it’s resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.