Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1788 (R1) 1.1820; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying above 1.1716 for consolidation. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 50% retracement at 1.1447 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2113) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0894; (P) 1.0922; (R1) 1.0975; More…

EUR/USD’s rally continues in early US session and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 1.0694 should target a retest on 1.1138 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0867 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0884; (R1) 1.0907; More…

EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0788 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0788 will argue that rebound from 1.0601 has completed and turn bias to the downside for this low. Nevertheless, break of 10915 will resume the rally to 1.0980 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0788 support will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1655; (P) 1.1700 (R1) 1.1740; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in correction from 1.1509 and outlook is unchanged. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1617 minor support will bring retest of 1.1509 low first. Break will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD’s late rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.1705, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That also came just ahead of 1.1602/1703 key support zone. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.1907 resistance first. Decisive break there will suggest that fall from 1.2265, as well as consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, below 1.1705 will turn focus back to 1.1602/1703 key support zone again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep long term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1175; (P) 1.1198; (R1) 1.1223; More…

EUR/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 1.0879 should target 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. In any case, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.1066 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9740; (P) 0.9797; (R1) 0.9859; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Break of 0.9634 minor support will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.9534 and below. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1032 continued last week and hit as low as 1.0535. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support could be seen around there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Break of 1.0668 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0803 resistance and above. However, sustained break of 1.0463 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.

In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1208). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2140; (P) 1.2191; (R1) 1.2227; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.2108 support argues that rebound from 1.1951 might has completed at 1.2242. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2022 first. Break there will likely extend the corrective fall from 1.2348 through 1.1951 support. On the upside, above 1.2242 will bring retest of 1.2348 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0895 (R1) 1.0924; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.0805 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2248. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0758, and then 100% projection at 1.0495. On the upside, above 1.0987 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and bring recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0014; (P) 1.0058; (R1) 1.0083; More…

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0368 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 0.9951 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860, and then 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, above 1.0121 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1873; (P) 1.1912; (R1) 1.1943; More….

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.1989 will target 55 day EMA (now at 1.2044) . Firm break there will indicate completion of correction from 1.2348 and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1834 will extend the correction from 1.2348 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1841; (P) 1.1861; (R1) 1.1893; More…..

EUR/USD finally breaks 1.1916 resistance today to resume larger rally from 1.0635. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.1255 to 1.1916 from 1.1711 at 1.2119 first. Break till target 100% projection at 1.2372 next. On the downside, break of 1.1711 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.17114 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1758; (P) 1.1780; (R1) 1.1805; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decline from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, would target 1.1703 support. On the upside, though, break of 1.1880 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 1.1974 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0840; (P) 1.0853; (R1) 1.0870; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed. Stronger rally would then be seen back to 1.1138. However, break of 1.0795 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0762; (P) 1.0799; (R1) 1.0829; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.0902 minor resistance suggests the fall from 1.1147 has completed. Rise form 1.0758 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.0635. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167 first. On the downside, break of 1.0768 will resume the fall to retest 1.0635 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1932 (R1) 1.1974; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1822 short term bottom extends higher today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.2413 to 1.1822 at 1.2048. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1822 will resume the whole decline from 1.2555 and target 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2179) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1356; (P) 1.1416; (R1) 1.1454; More….

EUR/USD recovers after hitting 1.1378 but quickly lost steam. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.1814 should extend to retest 1.1300 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1432 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0762; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside with today’s sharp decline. Fall from 1.1032 is resuming through 1.0523 support. Main focus is now on support zone between 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0258 and 1.0482. Strong support from there, followed by rebound through 1.0759 resistance, will retain near term bullishness. However, sustained break of 1.0258 will complete a head and shoulder top (ls: 1.0733, h: 1.1032, rs: 1.0759). Outlook will be turned bearish for 61.8% retracement at 1.0106.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, with risk of breaking through 0.9534 eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1330; (P) 1.1352; (R1) 1.1392; More…

EUR/USD finally breaks out of established range today and hits as high as 1.1414 so far. Intraday bias is now on the upside, and rebound from 1.1185 would target 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598. As we’re tentatively treating is as a corrective move, we’d look for strong resistance from 1.1598 to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.