EUR/USD dropped sharply last week and the development suggest rejection by 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is now on 1.1751 support. Break will resume fall from 1.2265 to 1.1602/1703 support zone. We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. But break of 1.1907 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that it’s already reversing the trend from 1.1603, and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1603 to 1.2348 at 1.1888.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep medium term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1250; (P) 1.1317; (R1) 1.1355; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.1383 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.1195 minor support holds. Above 1.1383 will target a test on 1.1496 key resistance. Though, break of 1.1195 will indicate short term topping ad turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0402; (P) 1.0422 (R1) 1.0455; More…

EUR/USD is still limited below 1.0641 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0641 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.0348, ahead of 1.0339 long term support. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0805 support turned resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1.0339 will carry larger bearish implication and target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, break of medium term channel support suggests downside acceleration. Current decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Decisive break of 1.0339 will confirm this bearish case. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0805 support turned resistance holds.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.1111 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral for more consolidation first. Stronger rise and break of 1.1264 cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited well below 1.1324 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1111 will extend down trend to 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.0895.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 was also taken out. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0930; (P) 1.0958; (R1) 1.1012; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment, for 1.1147 resistance. However, as price actions from 1.0635 is seen as a corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0892 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0768 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1167 will pave the way to retest 1.1496 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0731; (P) 1.0760; (R1) 1.0788; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside. Rebound from 1.0634 short term bottom is in progress. Sustained trading above 55 EMA (now at 1.0810) will pave the way back to retest 1.1094 high. Nevertheless, break of 1.0732 minor support should resume the fall from 1.1094 through 1.0634 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2273; (P) 1.2303 (R1) 1.2334; More….

EUR/USD continues to gyrate in very tight range above 1.2268 minor support. Intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2445will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1470; (P) 1.1507; (R1) 1.1550; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1463 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1623 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.1463 will extend the fall from 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0947; (P) 1.0982; (R1) 1.1004; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.0851 support holds. Above 1.1016 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to 1.1274 resistance next. But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

EUR/USD dropped further to 1.1806 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.1974 resistance holds. Break of 1.1806 will resume the decline from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, break of 1.1973 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2265 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep medium term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.1011 short term top continued last week but drew strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.0805) again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1011 will resume the rise from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.0834 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0634 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1131). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0000; (P) 1.0037; (R1) 1.0074; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and further decline is expected with 1.0189 minor resistance intact. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.9420. On the upside, break of 1.0189 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2095; (P) 1.2136; (R1) 1.2162; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for consolidation below 1.2177 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.2003 support to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 1.2177 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds.

EUR/USD continued to struggle in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.1385) will bring stronger rise back to 1.1663 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1430; (P) 1.1513; (R1) 1.1562; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1814 resumed after brief consolidation and hits as low as 1.1463 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1300 low next. On the upside, break of 1.1593 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1274 short term top extended last week and hit as low as 1.0942. Further fall is expected this week as long as 1.1148 resistance holds. Below 1.0942 will target 1.0832 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1148 will argue that the decline has completed and bring retest of 1.1274 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0963) will bring deeper correction to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1141). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1701 (R1) 1.1749; More…..

EUR/USD’s corrective rebound from 1.1509 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.1617 minor support will bring retest of 1.1509 low first. Break will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD dropped to 1.0482 last week as consolidation from 1.0733 extended. But downside was contained by 1.0481 resistance support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0733 will resume whole rally from 0.9534. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.0481 will extend the correction to 1.0289 support and below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds (2020 low), long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008) could still extend through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0635 will confirm bottoming and at least turn long term outlook neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0806; (P) 1.0873; (R1) 1.0910; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the downside, firm break of 1.0764 will resume whole decline from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, however, break of 1.0944 resistance will argue that the corrective fall from 1.1274 has completed with three waves down to 1.0764. Further rally would then be seen to 1.1064 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1747; (P) 1.1788 (R1) 1.1820; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying above 1.1716 for consolidation. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 50% retracement at 1.1447 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2113) holds.