Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1252; (P) 1.1322; (R1) 1.1372; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1176 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555. On the upside, above 1.1448 will resume the rebound from 1.1176 to 1.1569 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlooks is a bit mixed for now as there are conflicting signals. We’ll turn neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2555. Next target will be 1.0339 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.1569 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1176 at 1.1703. In that case, the structure of the rise from 1.1176 and reaction to 1.1703 fibonacci level will be watched for making an assessment on whether medium term trend has reversed, or rebound form 1.1176 is merely a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0684; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0731; More…

EUR/USD dips mildly after rejection by 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.0634 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.0634 will resume the corrective decline from 1.1094. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0778 will resume the rebound from 1.0634 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0829).

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0557; (P) 1.0598 (R1) 1.0622; More…..

Despite prior brief breach of 1.0630 minor resistance, EUR/USD is staying in established range of 1.0493/1.0630. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.0630 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.0828 is completed. Also, rise from 1.0339 could possibly be resuming. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0493 support will affirm the case that fall from 1.0828 is resuming the larger down trend. In that case, intraday bias will be back to the downside for resting 1.0339 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.1011 short term top continued last week but drew strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.0805) again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1011 will resume the rise from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.0834 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0634 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1131). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1740; (P) 1.1811; (R1) 1.1868; More…..

EUR/USD recovers ahead of 1.1711 support but stays well below 1.1965 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.1711 support holds. Break of 1.1965 will extend the whole rise from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1552).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9925; (P) 0.9979; (R1) 1.0016; More…

EUR/USD’s down trend resumed by breaking 0.9899 low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, break of 1.0078 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0754; (R1) 1.0804; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 1.1032 should have completed at 1.0515 already. That came after defending both 1.0482 support and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0258. Further rise should be seen for retesting 1.1032 high next. On the downside, below 1.0703 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, with risk of breaking through 0.9534 eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0696; (P) 1.0728; (R1) 1.0747; More…

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0668 and intraday bias remains neutral. Correction from 1.1032 short term top could still extend lower. Break of 1.0668 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Nevertheless, firm break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.0804) will bring retest of 1.1032 high instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1278; (P) 1.1312; (R1) 1.1348; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.1385 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.1186. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.1392) will bring stronger rise back to 1.1663 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2053; (P) 1.2079; (R1) 1.2107; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2181 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 1.1985 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2181 will resume the rally from 1.1703 for retesting 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 1.2555 key resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1563; (P) 1.1620 (R1) 1.1720; More…..

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.1509 extend to 1.1724 so far and breached 4 hour 55 EMA. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption. Below 1.1509 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1802 last week but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we maintain our view that 1.1779 should limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1649 minor support will be the first signal that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1525 support first. Break will confirm and bring retest of 1.1300 low. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9862; (P) 0.9930; (R1) 1.0055; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 0.9534 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0022) will raise the chance of medium term bottoming at 0.9534. Further rally should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. On the downside, though, break of 0.9734 minor support will bring retest of 0.9534 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0901; (P) 1.0978; (R1) 1.1019; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as 1.0929 support stays intact. On the upside, break of 1.1138 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. Meanwhile, break of 1.0929 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0772 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1703 resumed last week by taking out 1.2149 resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 1.2555 key resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 1.1985 support is needed to indicate completion of the rally from 1.1703. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1925; (R1) 1.1969; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1846. On the downside, break of 1.1846 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1997) will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1596; (P) 1.1626 (R1) 1.1648; More…

EUR/USD recovery mildly as the consolidation pattern from 1.1574 temporary low continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. As noted before, break of 1.1879 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the decline from 1.2091. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish. Below 1.1574 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1350; (P) 1.1371; (R1) 1.1392; More…

EUR/USD drops sharply today and focus is now on 1.1317 minor support. Firm break there will will be an early sign of completion of rise from 1.1107. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 support. Though, rebound from 1.1317 will retain near term bullishness. Break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound from 1.1107 low.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1777; (P) 1.1809; (R1) 1.1848; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. Another fall is still mildly in favor with 1.1880 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. However, on the upside, break of 1.1880 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside, for stronger rebound to 1.1974 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1950; (P) 1.1972; (R1) 1.1987; More….

Focus stays on 1.1988 resistance in EUR/USD. Decisive break there should affirm the case that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.1876 minor support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.