Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1616; (P) 1.1668 (R1) 1.1702; More…..

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1628 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.1507 has completed at 1.1720 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.1507 first. Break will resume whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, above 1.1720 will bring another recovery. But still, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1725; (R1) 1.1807; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise should target 00% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816 first. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2216 next. On the downside, below 1.1640 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1422 resistance turned support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2115; (P) 1.2132; (R1) 1.2150; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.2087 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1951 might be completed. The development also argues that the correction from 1.2348 could still be in progress. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.1951 support. On the upside, above 1.2148 will revive the bullish case and target 1.2188 and then 1.2348 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD finally resumed the rebound from 1.1185 last week and hit as high as 1.1482. But as temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias is neutral this week first. rebound from 1.1185 is seen as a corrective move, hence, in case of another rally, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598. On the downside, below 1.1284 support will bring retest of 1.1185 low. However, sustained break of 1.1598 will argue that the trend is reversing already.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0742; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0803; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0741) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias to the downside for 1.0648 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation below 1.1075 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is expected as long as 1.0830 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1075 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441. However, firm break of 1.0830 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper decline to 1.0711 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

In the long term picture, while it’s still early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1166). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be an indication underlying bullishness and target 1.2348 resistance next.

EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.1016. With breach of 1.0851 support, a short term top should be in place on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0766). On the upside, however, break of 1.1016 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1081) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1873; (P) 1.1902; (R1) 1.1925; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.1846 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support. On the upside, break of 1.1974 minor resistance will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0868; (P) 1.0898; (R1) 1.0943; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside as rise from 1.0525 resumes by breaking through 1.0972. Further rally should be seen to 1.1032 high. Decisive break there resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.0830 support will now indicate rejection by 1.1032, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0711 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0625) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1872; (P) 1.1942; (R1) 1.1981; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.1762 support holds. Break of 1.2011 will resume the whole rise from 1.0635. However, firm break of 1.1762 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1623).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0745; (R1) 1.0781; More…

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1032 short term top extends to 1.0685 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside to 1.0482 support, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. On the upside, above 1.0798 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0489; (P) 1.0565; (R1) 1.0603; More…

Immediate focus is back on 1.0518 minor support in EUR/USD with current fall. Firm break there will confirm that corrective recovery from 1.0447 has completed at 1.0639, after hitting near term falling trend line. Larger decline from 1.1274 should then be resumed through 1.0447 to 1.0119 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, above 1.0639 will resume the recovery to 1.0764 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0709) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2118; (P) 1.2152; (R1) 1.2200; More…

EUR/USD stays inside range below 1.2265 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.2265 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to retest 1.2348 high. On the downside, below 1.2103 will target 1.1985 support. Break there will confirm that consolidation pattern from 1.2348 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 1.1703 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0502; (P) 1.0542 (R1) 1.0576; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.0358/0786 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is in favor with 1.0786 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0339/48 will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case, and bring stronger rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1306; (P) 1.1367 (R1) 1.1404; More…..

EUR/USD’s fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is part of the down trend from 1.2555 and should target 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186. On the upside, above 1.1430 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1254; (P) 1.1294; (R1) 1.1360; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again and the recovery lost momentum well below 1.1422 resistance. On the upside, break of 1.1422 will resume whole rebound from 1.0635 and target 1.1495 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1212 will resume the fall from 1.1422 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2049; (P) 1.2093 (R1) 1.2124; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.2054 temporary low could extend. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.2214 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 1.2054 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991 first. Break will target 200% projection at 1.1891.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.0634 extended higher last week after brief setback. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Sustained trading above 55 EMA (now at 1.0813) will pave the way back to retest 1.1094 high. Nevertheless, break of 1.0700 minor support should resume the fall from 1.1094 through 1.0634 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1134). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next.

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1274 extended lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 1.0832 support will target 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, above 1.0951 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1064 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the uptrend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1136). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1230; (P) 1.1241; (R1) 1.1262; More….

EUR/USD is still staying below 1.1348 resistance despite today’s strong rebound. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1348 will argue that consolidation from 1.1422 has possible completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside, to resume the rally from 1.0635 through 1.1422 to 1.1496 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1168 will extend the correction from 1.1422 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.1422 at 1.1121.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.