EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0641; (P) 1.0695 (R1) 1.0734; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 1.0619/0828. As noted before, choppy rise from 1.0339 is seen as a correction. Hence, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.0872 resistance and bring fall resumption eventually. Break of 1.0619 will argue that the corrective rise is completed and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0339 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0550; (P) 1.0590 (R1) 1.0616; More…..

EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.0493/0678 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.0678 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. We’re viewing fall from 1.0828 as resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.0493 will target 1.0339 low first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target parity. However, break of 1.0678 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1704; (P) 1.1754 (R1) 1.1848; More…

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1553 is still in progress. The break of 1.1836 resistance should confirm our bullish view. That is, correction from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.2091 high. On the downside, below 1.1784 minor support will bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1346) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1740; (P) 1.1799 (R1) 1.1835; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1879 will affirm the case that pull back from 1.2091 has already completed at 1.1669. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. On the downside, break of 1.1669 will resume the fall from 1.2091 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. We’d expect strong support from there to complete the correction.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0512; (P) 1.0545; (R1) 1.0600; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0487 is extending. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0764 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.0487 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0199 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, firm break of 1.0515 support will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0786) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9755; (P) 0.9812; (R1) 0.9919; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.9630 bring retest of 0.9534 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.9998 resistance will resume the rise from 0.9534, and carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 0.9998 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9998 will confirm medium term bottoming, and bring further rise back to 1.0368 resistance first.