EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0926 last week but recovered strongly since then. For now, such recovery is seen as a corrective move. Thus, while further rise could be seen this week, upside should be limited below 1.1164 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.0926 will resume lager down trend from 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.1164 will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.1412 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1629) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1459; (P) 1.1494; (R1) 1.1529; More…..

There is no follow through selling in EUR/USD after breaching 1.1463. But still, with 1.1549 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected. Current decline from 1.1814 should target a test on 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1549 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation. But for now, we’d hold on to the view that correction from 1.1300 has completed at 1.1814. Thus, in that case, we’d expect upside to be limited well below 1.1814 to bring another decline to 1.1300 eventually.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9939; (P) 0.9986; (R1) 1.0024; More…

EUR/USD recovers mildly today but outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 0.9899 could extend, but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0121 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 0.9899 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. However, firm break of 1.0121 will dampen this view and turn focus to 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0929; (P) 1.0957; (R1) 1.0972; More…

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1239 is extending today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.0985 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 1.1095 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective that might have completed after rejection by 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0879 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) for 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813). Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1239 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0871; (P) 1.0925; (R1) 1.0955; More…

EUR/USD’s sharp fall today and breach of 1.0833 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.0727 has completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.0727 first. Break will target 1.0635 low next. On the upside, break of 1.1019 will turn bias to the upside for 1.1147 resistance. After all, corrective pattern from 1.0635 low is still in progress. But in case of rebound, upside should be by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

EUR/USD dropped sharply last week but downside is contained above 1.1066 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and rise from 1.0879 is in favor to continue. On the upside, break of 1.1239 will resume such rally and 100% projection of 1.0879 to 1.1179 from 1.0981 at 1.1281 next. However, firm break of 1.1066 will argue that whole rise from 1.0879 has completed. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0981 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1538) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9892; (P) 0.9918; (R1) 0.9958; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and further decline is expected with 1.0078 resistance intact. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860 should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.0078 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.0368 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1770; (P) 1.1809; (R1) 1.1887; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally continues today and hits as high as 1.1904 so far. 100% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816 is taken out firmly. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 161.8% projection at 1.2216 next. On the downside, break of 1.1730 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/USD rebounded further to 1.1184 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Though, the breach of 1.1120 support turned resistance argues that it’s already correcting whole fall from 1.2265. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0943 support holds. Above 1.1184 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.0805 at 1.1363. However, break of 1.0943 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.0805 low first.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

In the long term picture, in any case, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 holds, the down trend from 1.6039 could still resume through 1.0339 low. However, sustained trading above 1.2516 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0508; (P) 1.0551; (R1) 1.0579; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0447 is still in progress. On the downside, firm break of 1.0447 will resume whole fall from 1.1274 and target 1.0199 fibonacci level. On the upside, however, break of 1.0639 will resume the rebound from 1.0447 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0692).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0692) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1819; (P) 1.1844; (R1) 1.1886; More…..

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1711/1965 despite today’s decline. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally might still be seen. Break of 1.1965 will resume whole rally from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1546).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.17114 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1161; (P) 1.1194; (R1) 1.1260; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Current up trend should target 1.1273 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 1.1127 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1494 but failed to sustain above 1.1482 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.1265 minor support holds. On the upside break of 1.1482 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the down, however, break of 1.1265 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.1120 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is seen as a leg inside the range pattern from 1.2555 (2018 high). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.1613) will argue that it has completed and stronger rise would be seen back towards top of the range between 1.2348 and 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next.

In the long term picture, in another case, as long as (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 holds, the down trend from 1.6039 could still resume through 1.0339 low. However, sustained trading above 1.2516 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1549; (P) 1.1580 (R1) 1.1599; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains cautiously on the downside for the moment. Prior break of 1.1574 minor support is tentatively treated as sign of downside breakout and down trend resumption. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 1.1507 support. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. On the upside, however, above 1.1610 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the consolidation from 1.1509 with another rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1584; (P) 1.1604 (R1) 1.1644; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR?USD remains neutral as this point for some more consolidation. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.1509 will resume larger decline from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1070; (P) 1.1108; (R1) 1.1145; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Price actions from 1.0635 are seen as corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, below 1.1008 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias to the downside for 1.0870 support. However, sustained break of 1.1167 will pave the way to 1.1496 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1764; (P) 1.1807; (R1) 1.1830; More…..

EUR/USD recovers mildly today but stays well inside range of 1.1711/1965. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.1711 support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1965 will extend the whole rise from 1.0635. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1711 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1561).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1558; (P) 1.1592 (R1) 1.1642; More…..

A temporary low is in place at 1.1542 in EUR/USD with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.1509 will resume larger decline from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1424; (P) 1.1476; (R1) 1.1502; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1431 support. Break there will resume whole decline from 1.1814 and target 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1527 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain mildly bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2071; (P) 1.2096; (R1) 1.2145; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 1.2188 resistance. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2348 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1951. Break of 1.2188 resistance will bring retest of 1.2348 high. On the downside, below 1.2053 minor support will dampen this bullish case, and turn bias to the downside to extend the correction from 1.2348 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.