Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0789; (P) 1.0820; (R1) 1.0850; More…

EUR/USD recovers today but stays below 1.0895 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged and corrective pattern from 1.0635 could extend further. On the upside, above 1.0895 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1019 resistance. But overall, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1035; (P) 1.1060; (R1) 1.1099; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0879 extends higher and further rise could be seen. But still, it’s seen as a corrective move and upside should be limited by 1.1109 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0991 minor support should confirm completion of the recovery and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0879 low first. However, firm break of 1.1109 will be an early sign of medium term bottoming and target 1.1412 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2054; (P) 1.2075; (R1) 1.2113; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1951 will extend the correction form 1.2348 to 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2168 at 1.1771. However, break of 1.2168 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2348 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1703 resumed last week by taking out 1.2149 resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 1.2555 key resistance zone next. On the downside, break of 1.1985 support is needed to indicate completion of the rally from 1.1703. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1760; (P) 1.1797; (R1) 1.1841; More…..

EUR/USD rebounds strongly in early US session but stays below 1.2011 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.1762 support intact, further rise is expected. Firm break of 1.2011 will resume the rally from 1.0635 towards 1.2555 key level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1762 should confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0440; (P) 1.0516; (R1) 1.0554; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside and outlook is unchanged. fall from 1.1274 is in progress and should target 1.0199 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 1.0616 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0759) holds, in case of rebound.

EUR/USD struggled to break through 1.0609/34 cluster support zone last week despite decline attempt. Yet, there is no clear sign of bottoming. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0609/34 will carry larger bearish implication. Fall from 1.1274 should then target target 1.0515 support next. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.0767 resistance, should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.0944 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Strong support could be seen from 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609) to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, sustained break of 1.0609/0634 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0199.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might still be in progress. Rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 1.1108) will retain long term bearishness, for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage.

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1691 last week, but was rejected by 55 day EMA and fell sharply from there. It’s also kept inside near term falling channel. Thus outlook in the pair stays bearish. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 1.1523 support. Break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and that from 1.2348 too, for long term fibonacci level at 1.1289 next. For now, further decline is expected as long as 1.1691 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) already. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0865 (R1) 1.0921; More…

EUR/USD retreats sharply after failing to break through 1.0937 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of 1.0805 low will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0758, and then 100% projection at 1.0495. On the upside, break of 1.0937 minor resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0805 with another rising leg. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound. But overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1184 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

EUR/USD’s recovered to 1.1769 last week but struggled to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1721). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.1612 will extend the fall from 1.2011. Intraday bias will be turned the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485, to corrective the whole rise from 1.0635. Though, on the upside, break of 1.1769 will argue that the correction have completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.2011 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1650). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1094 continued last week despite some loss of downside momentum. Further fall is expected this week as long as 1.0830 resistance holds. Current fall from 1.1094 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534, and should target 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0830 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

In the long term picture, focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1156). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0699; (P) 1.0732 (R1) 1.0767; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0348 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0757) will target 1.0935 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.641 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2173; (P) 1.2231 (R1) 1.2265; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.2154 support. Decisive break there should confirm the bearish case of medium term reversal. And EUR/USD should then target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991. On the upside, 1.2245 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.2413 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Firm break of 1.2154 support will confirm rejection by this fibonacci level. And in that case, a medium term top is at least formed at 1.2555. EUR/USD should then head back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

EUR/USD recovered after dipping to 0.9534 last week, but stays below 0.9863 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 0.9634 minor support will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.9534 and below. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1884; (P) 1.1913; (R1) 1.1940; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside despite mild loss of upside momentum. Decisive break of 1.2011 high will resume whole rally from 1.0635 low. On the downside, though, break of 1.1800 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2011 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0886; (R1) 1.0917; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside with current steep fall and break of 1.0834 support. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0861) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0941 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2135; (P) 1.2186 (R1) 1.2213; More….

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2159 so far and focus is now on 1.2154 key support. Decisive break there should confirm the bearish case of medium term reversal. In addition, the break of 100% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 will indicate downside acceleration. In that case, EUR/USD should target 161.8% projection at 1.1991 next. In case of recovery, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2244 minor resistance holds. And further decline is still expected. However, break of 1.2244 will indicate strong support from 1.2154 and turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.2413, to extend recent range trading.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Firm break of 1.2154 support will confirm rejection by this fibonacci level. And in that case, a medium term top is at least formed at 1.2555. EUR/USD should then head back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1454; (P) 1.1494; (R1) 1.1556; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1432 extends higher today. While further rise could be seen, near term outlook will still remain mildly bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1431 will resume the fall form 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low. Nonetheless, break of 1.1621 will turn focus back to 1.1814 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidation from 1.1111 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another rise, upside should be should be limited by 1.1263 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, firm break of 1.1107 will target 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. However, sustained break of 1.1263 resistance will now be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the upside for 1.1448 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance, 55 month and 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0339 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.9501

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1752; (P) 1.1773; (R1) 1.1785; More….

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.1726 so far, and intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective fall from 1.2348 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694 and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 1.1062 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.2348. On the upside, above 1.1804 minor resistance will turn neutral first. But break of 1.1988 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.