EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1147 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.0727. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.0885 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low. On the upside, break of 1.0885 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.0635 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. On break of 1.0339, next target will be 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2555 at 0.8901.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0082; (P) 1.0141; (R1) 1.0204; More…

EUR/USD’s rebound from 0.9951 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.0348 support turned resistance. Break there will target channel resistance at 1.0514. On the downside, below 1.0118 minor support will bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1566; (P) 1.1605; (R1) 1.1644; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend with another rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1525 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. Overall, price actions from 1.1300 are forming a corrective pattern, that could extend for a while before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0932; (P) 1.0970; (R1) 1.0999; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.1094 is extending. With 1.0908 support intact, further rally could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 1.1094 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441 However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0908 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0684; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0731; More…

EUR/USD dips mildly after rejection by 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.0634 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.0634 will resume the corrective decline from 1.1094. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, however, above 1.0778 will resume the rebound from 1.0634 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0829).

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1430; (P) 1.1513; (R1) 1.1562; More…..

A temporary low is formed at 1.1463 with today’s recovery and intraday bias in turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited below 1.1623 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.1463 will extend the fall from 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0883; (P) 1.0906; (R1) 1.0929; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0964 is still in progress. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0823 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, firm break of 1.0823 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0763; (P) 1.0808 (R1) 1.0843; More…

EUR/USD’s down trend finally resumes by breaking 1.0756 today. Intraday bias is now back on the downside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495. On the upside, break of 1.0935 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1185 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1848; (P) 1.1870; (R1) 1.1887; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. A short term bottom was formed at 1.1751. On the upside, above 1.1907 will resume the rebound to 1.1974 resistance first. Firm break there should argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed. On the downside, however, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265 to 1.1703 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0911; (P) 1.0929; (R1) 1.0944; More…

EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.0980 extends slightly lower today but intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 1.0797 support holds. Fall from 1.1138 could have completed at 1.0694, as a correction to rise from 1.0447. Above 1.0980 will resume the rise from 1.0694 to retest 1.1138 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1430; (P) 1.1492; (R1) 1.1529; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and more consolidation cannot be ruled out. Near term outlook remains bearish with 1.1621 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1431 will resume the fall from 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low. Nonetheless, break of 1.1621 will turn focus back to 1.1814 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1288; (P) 1.1311; (R1) 1.1331; More…

EUR/USD is still struggling in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1405) and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1641; (P) 1.1699 (R1) 1.1734; More…..

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1679 minor support suggests that corrective rise from 1.1507 has completed at 1.1790 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1507 first. Break will resume larger fall from 1.2555. In that case, EUR/USD should drop through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1350; (P) 1.1384; (R1) 1.1406; More….

EUR/USD remains in consolidation above 1.1335 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.1493 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Below 1.1335 will target 1.1300 low first. Decisive break will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 1.14983 resistance will likely extend the consolidation pattern from 1.1300 with another rise towards 1.1814 before larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1847; (P) 1.1915 (R1) 1.1950; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as the corrective pattern from 1.2069 is unfolding. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.1661 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.2069 will extend the whole rally from 1.0339 to 61.8% projection of 1.1118 to 1.1908 from 1.1661 at 1.2149 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.2451 next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1908 extended lower last week and the development argues that rebound from 1.1663 has completed at 1.1908 already, after rejection by 1.1907 resistance. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.1663. Firm break there will resume the fall from 1.2265, and the pattern from 1.2348 to 1.1602 key support next. On the upside, above 1.1788 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1908 again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep long term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1606; (P) 1.1636 (R1) 1.1670; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.1507 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.2555, through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, in case of another rise as consolidation extends, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1395; (P) 1.1421; (R1) 1.1451; More…..

With 1.1390 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor in EUR/USD. Current development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1215 is still extending, with rise from 1.1289 as another leg. Further rally would be seen to 1.1569 resistance and above. On the downside, below 113.90 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1289 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0136; (P) 1.0207 (R1) 1.0251; More…

EUR/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday stays on the downside. Current down trend should target 1.0090 long term projection level. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity. On the upside, above 1.0276 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited below 1.0614 resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.0339 long term support (2017 low) indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0786 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1771; (P) 1.1803; (R1) 1.1825; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1806 support suggest resumption of fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 1.1703 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.1894 resistance is need to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.