Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1140; (P) 1.1163; (R1) 1.1186; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral as it continued to lose downside momentum. Near term outlook is unchanged though. Price actions from 1.1111 is a correction pattern and could have completed at 1.1263. Decisive break of 1.1111 will resume larger down trend for 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1008 last week but failed to break through 1.1016 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0722 support holds. Break of 1.1016 will resume the whole rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1073) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1932 (R1) 1.1974; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1822 short term is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.1992 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.2413 to 1.1822 at 1.2048. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.1932 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.1822 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 1.2555 and target 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2179) holds.

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1239 extends to as low as 1.1020 last week. The development affirmed our view that corrective rise from 1.1179 has completed with three waves to 1.1239. Initial bias stays on the downside for 1.0981 support first. Break will confirm and target a retest on 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1070 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1172 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1538) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0124; (P) 1.0173; (R1) 1.0248; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.0277 minor resistance will target 1.0348 resistance first. Break there will target channel resistance at 1.0469. on the downside, break of 1.0095 minor support will bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0847; (P) 1.0873 (R1) 1.0892; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. With a short term top formed at 1.1020 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, deeper decline should be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0760) first. As noted before, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Break of 55 day EMA will affirm the case that such correction is completed and bring deeper decline to 1.0569 for confirmation. Above 1.1020 will extend such corrective rise instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6480; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6624; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as down trend continues today. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6669 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0843; (R1) 1.0873; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a corrective pattern, which might extend further. On the upside, above 1.0895 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1019 resistance. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1174; (P) 1.1202; (R1) 1.1243; More…

No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.1282 intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.1133 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1026. Break of 1.1026 will extend the downtrend from 1.2555. Though, break of 1.1282 will turn focus back to 1.1412 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

EUR/USD’s decline last week suggests that the corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1729; (P) 1.1776 (R1) 1.1809; More…

EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.1908 is extending and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring up trend resumption. Break of 1.1846 minor resistance will argue that larger rise from 1.0339 is resuming for 1.2042 long term support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1289; (P) 1.1312; (R1) 1.1334; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1341 minor resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1215 low will resume the larger down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1341 will suggests that consolidation from 1.1215 is extending with another rising leg back towards 1.1514 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1825; (P) 1.1855; (R1) 1.1872; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 1.1907 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2366; (P) 1.2430 (R1) 1.2491; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point but further rally is expected as long as 1.2222 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 1.2494/2516 resistance zone will extend recent rally to 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075 next. However, break of 1.2222 will indicate rejection from 1.2494/2516, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. But key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 is looking vulnerable. Sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0552; (P) 1.0593; (R1) 1.0646; More…

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.0289 support and below. On the upside, however, firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1741; (P) 1.1800; (R1) 1.1890; More…..

EUR/USD’s rally continues today and hits as high as 1.1890 so far. Break of 1.1880 resistance adds to the bullish case that consolidation from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.2011 and break will resume larger rally from 1.0635. On the downside, though, below 1.1791 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1024; (P) 1.1104 (R1) 1.1148; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point, but further rally is mildly in favor as long as 1.0943 support holds. Break of 1.1184 will resume the rebound from 1.0805 to 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.0805 at 1.1363. However, break of 1.0943 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.0805 low first.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1793; (P) 1.1866 (R1) 1.1912; More….

EUR/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.1762 as recent decline extends. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.2555 should target 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next. Break will target 1.1553 support. And, on the upside, break of 1.1995 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2162) holds.

EUR/USD continued to struggle in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.1385) will bring stronger rise back to 1.1663 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0874; (P) 1.0911; (R1) 1.0936; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.0958 minor resistance intact. Current down trend is in progress for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 1.0958 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1109 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.